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Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm


Tom

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ORD-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: ORD    LAT=  41.98 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   673                                            00Z JAN31   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SAT 00Z 31-JAN  -5.1    -7.2    1032      79      70             553     528    SAT 06Z 31-JAN  -5.2    -4.3    1029      84      82    0.00     554     532    SAT 12Z 31-JAN  -5.0    -3.3    1025      79      45    0.00     555     535    SAT 18Z 31-JAN  -0.5    -1.2    1024      64      42    0.00     556     537    SUN 00Z 01-FEB  -1.0    -1.6    1023      79      99    0.00     554     536    SUN 06Z 01-FEB  -1.9    -4.2    1021      97      99    0.19     549     532    SUN 12Z 01-FEB  -3.4    -5.7    1019      94      99    0.19     545     530    SUN 18Z 01-FEB  -4.8    -7.4    1016      95      99    0.21     540     528    MON 00Z 02-FEB  -7.0   -12.3    1015      92      99    0.15     534     522    MON 06Z 02-FEB  -8.1   -15.4    1018      87     100    0.08     530     516    MON 12Z 02-FEB -13.7   -15.5    1023      90      69    0.01     531     514 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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OMA-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: OMA    LAT=  41.30 LON=  -95.90 ELE=   981                                            00Z JAN31   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SAT 00Z 31-JAN   0.2     4.7    1028      56      63             566     543    SAT 06Z 31-JAN   0.9     3.0    1025      70      90    0.00     564     544    SAT 12Z 31-JAN   1.8    -1.0    1023      83      98    0.00     560     542    SAT 18Z 31-JAN   3.7    -2.9    1021      81      99    0.09     558     541    SUN 00Z 01-FEB   2.2    -3.0    1017      92      99    0.25     554     540    SUN 06Z 01-FEB   0.5    -3.4    1015      98      99    0.23     549     537    SUN 12Z 01-FEB  -4.7    -7.2    1019      91      99    0.14     543     528    SUN 18Z 01-FEB  -9.2   -13.7    1026      88     100    0.06     539     519    MON 00Z 02-FEB -11.1   -15.0    1029      86      92    0.02     536     514
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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SE NE

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/05/Ron-Paul_Its-Happening1.gif

I'm happy the models are showing good amounts for once but dang, I must be the only one worried about the warm temps, warm ground temps, and all of that with mostly rain during the day. I don't think these models are taking that into account. Seen this way to many times. Yes I can see snow falling don't get me wrong but it will be wet and melt as soon as it hits the ground. Mark my words. It happened last year in Feb. and I see it happening once again. Not trying to be a Debbie downer at all but lived in Nebraska my entire life and have seen this happen time after time.
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I wonder if grocery stores are gonna be super packed tomorrow. Not only the typical Saturday rush, but people getting Super Bowl stuff a day early so they don't have to go out Sunday.

 

I've liked the model consistency of a 8-12" event over here the last 36 hours.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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00Z NAM BUFKIT shows 14.6 inches for ORD. Usually it ends up being a bit overdone because it tends to overestimate the snow ratios. I think a general 8-12 inches across the Chicago metro with the best chances of a foot plus south of I-88 seems like a good call.

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Problem is the rain tho. What are your thoughts as far as that goes?

Yeah it sucks the temps aren't perfect. I'm hoping the heavy precip rates will be enough to create some dynamic cooling and pull down some of that cold air just off the surface so the switchover can occur earlier. I'm hoping for 4-6" in Omaha

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Canadian soon- then Euro just after midnight.. but this really is getting to the point to focus on short range / hi res models. Kind of in the middle of those as far as time to the event. The HRRR and RAP will go out 15 / 18 hours respectively.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Just on the 12z run NE folks were flipping out. WWW earlier talked about how if a storm happened, it was going to be south of him anyways, and he's in line to get at least 6-8 from this if not more.

 

Funny how that works. Maybe I should try being more negative and this thing will go north some more. 

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Just on the 12z run NE folks were flipping out. WWW earlier talked about how if a storm happened, it was going to be south of him anyways, and he's in line to get at least 6-8 from this if not more.

 

Funny how that works. Maybe I should try being more negative and this thing will go north some more.

haha I'm feeling for you rn my man. 'sconnie has been shafted as of recent too. Hope this thing edges north for you guys

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Just on the 12z run NE folks were flipping out. WWW earlier talked about how if a storm happened, it was going to be south of him anyways, and he's in line to get at least 6-8 from this if not more.

 

Funny how that works. Maybe I should try being more negative and this thing will go north some more. 

 

Sometimes that psychology works, and is part of the reason I prefer to lean to the negative side (I also feel if I'm negative enough, I get rid of the inner weenie and expectations become less).

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