February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Kansas

[Tom]

Current Pacific SST's would support a continuation of the -EPO pattern....

[Maxim]

Rome, OH hit -39F last night!  Just Ridiculous....the more I look at the GFS maps, I'm liking what I'm seeing.  Might have a repeat opening to March comparable to last year.

That's just insane. Some radiational cooling going on there.

[Tom]

That's just insane. Some radiational cooling going on there.

Radiational cooling on steroids.  Saw the temp chart on Wx Bell and at midnight it dropped like a rock when winds became calm and skies cleared.  Pretty remarkable.

[Tony]

From Ryan Maue:

 

Monday Arctic blast looks coldest of winter so far for Great Lakes & Ontario w/850-mb temps -37°C

 

[gosaints]

Zzzz wash rinse repeat. Southern new England winter

[Tom]

12z Euro starting to correct NW with the 28th system...leaving a streak of snow from TX Pan handle all the way towards the Lower Lakes...going to be interesting how this one develops.  SE ridge is starting to flex its muscles.

[Tom]

Talk about a tanking PNA/EPO...could be a golden ending to Winter for some in our region....

[gosaints]

12z Euro starting to correct NW with the 28th system...leaving a streak of snow from TX Pan handle all the way towards the Lower Lakes...going to be interesting how this one develops. SE ridge is starting to flex its muscles.

Ridge has been showing in this time frame over and over again to weaken or disappear over time

[Tom]

Ridge has been showing in this time frame over and over again to weaken or disappear over time

We'll see, different time of the year now may deliver a different result.

[Hawkeye]

There's a good chance this month will end with only 0.1" of snow here after the Feb 1st Superbowl storm.

[Grizzcoat]

Anybody see the record busting cold on the GFS 12z for around the 5th of March? Time to hit the woods and freshen up my wood supply.

[Tom]

Anybody see the record busting cold on the GFS 12z for around the 5th of March? Time to hit the woods and freshen up my wood supply.

It would unprecedented to get sub-zero cold like that during the 1st week of March.  Last year it happened, could it happen again??  I think we would need a deeper snow pack in order to get those crazy low temps.

[jaster220]

12z Euro starting to correct NW with the 28th system...leaving a streak of snow from TX Pan handle all the way towards the Lower Lakes...going to be interesting how this one develops.  SE ridge is starting to flex its muscles.

 

I'm reminded that the Euro first had this current system with 15+ over mby, now I'm in line for 1-2". Models have been horrendous this season. Let's be honest.

[Trinomial]

Tom, I'm a little confused. The models seem to be advertising the coldest air of the season Sunday into Monday, but yet my Grid reads a high of 11 Sunday with a low of -9, and then a high of 10 on Monday. Are Winds going to be intense with this arctic blast? I thought the models were showing not getting above 0? Maybe I'm wrong. Thanks!

[Tom]

Tom, I'm a little confused. The models seem to be advertising the coldest air of the season Sunday into Monday, but yet my Grid reads a high of 11 Sunday with a low of -9, and then a high of 10 on Monday. Are Winds going to be intense with this arctic blast? I thought the models were showing not getting above 0? Maybe I'm wrong. Thanks!

GFS may be over doing the cold again.  However, it seems it will be a midnight high temp early on Sunday with temps heading south throughout the day.  Sunday night looks to be the coldest period.

[Trinomial]

GFS may be over doing the cold again.  However, it seems it will be a midnight high temp early on Sunday with temps heading south throughout the day.  Sunday night looks to be the coldest period.

Makes sense. The 4km Nam seems to have temps diving but not as intense as the GFS. How was the 12z Euro?

[Tom]

Makes sense. The 4km Nam seems to have temps diving but not as intense as the GFS. How was the 12z Euro?

About 20F around midnight Sat, then they dive into single digits during the day....teens sub-zero for Monday morning around here.

[Geos]

For eye candy....

 

Probably safe to say the Colorado Rockies will have good skiing and snowboarding for several weeks yet! 

 

-14° for a low yesterday and -13° today with 0.7" of snow. If it wasn't for added daylight, it would seem like early to mid January still.

[Geos]

Rome, OH hit -39F last night!  Just Ridiculous....the more I look at the GFS maps, I'm liking what I'm seeing.  Might have a repeat opening to March comparable to last year.

 

That tied the all time record low for the state set in 1899!

 

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0113527.html

[jcwxguy]

00z GFS looks interesting middle of next week for grand island, ne to omaha, ne down to KC  

[Grizzcoat]

That tied the all time record low for the state set in 1899!

 

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0113527.html

If the sensor is anything other then an ASOS or any version of an AWOS--- I highly doubt it will be recognized.

[james1976]

00z GFS is cold. Showing a cutter to open March, followed by brutal cold. Let's see how that pans out.

[winterfreak]

GFS back to nothing for now. Way south and clobbers Boston again.

[NEJeremy]

Yep cold, cold, cold pushing everything south

[GDR]

Wow Boston gets smoked

[james1976]

Boston gets destroyed on 12z GFS. Also showing a storm for most of us to open March. But thats over a week away.

[winterfreak]

EURO with another apps runner.

[Tom]

Euro has been the most consistent with cutting the end of month system west of the East Coast.  The models will have a better handle on the -PNA next week.  Watch the trend west on the GFS.  I just don't see Boston/NYC getting hit.  The upcoming pattern as we move forward doesn't support East Coast systems.

 

Meantime, both GFS/EURO just TANK the EPO down to the lowest levels I have seen thus far this season.  Also, what is interesting is that the Euro/GGEM Ensembles are showing the NAO heading towards neutral territory during the first week of March creating more blocking.

[Trinomial]

Tom, 

 

What did the Euro say temp wise? Just wondering if we'll break any records Sunday night into Monday?

[Tom]

Tom, 

 

What did the Euro say temp wise? Just wondering if we'll break any records Sunday night into Monday?

Teens sub-zero for N IL/NE IA/WI...mid/upper single digit highs on Monday...

[Tom]

ORD just hit 30F, wonder if it cracks 32F today...if not, we could have one heckova stretch of sub-freezing temps.  Going on Day #10 I think...Feb 10th it hit 33F.

[winterfreak]

Man models are clobbering areas to the south and to the east. Just need one to track further north and cut further west. Starving for a winter storm around here. Most of us are in the same boat I guess.

[Maxim]

Tom, 

 

What did the Euro say temp wise? Just wondering if we'll break any records Sunday night into Monday?

Not a chance. The record low for the 23rd is -18, and the record low max is -2. Those records will likely never be broken in my opinion. (Or at least not for a very long time.)

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles looking amazing from the Plains/Lakes over the next 2 weeks.  Good luck trying to run a snow storm into the kinda warmth the 12z Euro Ensembles are seeing along the East Coast.  The -PNA is going to be our "friend" finally for the central CONUS.  This will probably be one of the best setups for storms in our region this Winter season.

[Tom]

18z GFS...interesting...March coming in like a Lion???

[winterfreak]

Barfed when I saw the 18z.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yesterday GFS showed parts of Nebraska with 2 feet, today nothing.  Hope they come back, but this winter that doesn't seem to be in the cards.  Local mets said yesterday the numbers were inflated and most of that snow never gets out of the upslope region of western Nebraska.  I hate to admit it, they are probably right.  Seems like Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma get the storms we used to get up here, beyond frustrated.  Goodland Kansas going to get hammered and we sit here with more gray skies, cold winds, and brown grass.  Let's just get to Spring if this is the pattern we are set in.  I know we don't get the snow of Chicago or Boston, but we used to get at least 1 big storm every winter, still waiting, this is a 2 year wait.

 

My optimism continues to get crushed this winter, why do I talk myself into these fantasy storms that never materialize.  I am with you winterfreak.

 

Thanks for letting me vent, now I will spend time with the family.  Can't control mother nature.

[Niko]

My high temperature today was 24F and it seemed like it was 44F. Never knew that being in the 20s can feel so comfortable. I guess this bitter cold airmass that we have been dealing with lately can make 20s feel great.

[WBadgersW]

My high temperature today was 24F and it seemed like it was 44F. Never knew that being in the 20s can feel so comfortable. I guess this bitter cold airmass that we have been dealing with lately can make 20s feel great.

It got up to 28℉ here. I ran outside in a t-shirt. It felt so good.