Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Are the 18z GFS ensembles south as well??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm wondering if the current artic air coming in is playing a role in how some of the models are seeing this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Is it just me, or does it seem almost every snow system has ended up trending NW as the event approached and also how the models 3-4 days out have ended up with the closest solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 ARCTIC AIR......on the way. BRRRRRRRR!!!!!! My highs on Sunday will be near zero at best. Lows -10 to -15F, with wcf's at -25 to -35F. Holy Crap! Will rival the cold we had last winter. Currently: light freezing drizzle. A mist in the air for sure. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 To me it looks like artic air is destroying the system. 00z will be coming in soon but this morning's runs looked better than this afternoon's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 To me it looks like artic air is destroying the system. 00z will be coming in soon but this morning's runs looked better than this afternoon's.I agree. I see a suppression of this storm. Too far south. We will see. BTW: Feels good now that daylight hours are longer. At 6:00pm, its still daylight. Spring is knocking at our doorstep and once March rolls on in, then, I am ready for Spring weather. Higher sun angle, longer days, higher average highs and lows make my winter enthusiast go away. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 I agree. I see a suppression of this storm. Too far south. We will see. BTW: Feels good now that daylight hours are longer. At 6:00pm, its still daylight. Spring is knocking at our doorstep and once March rolls on in, then, I am ready for Spring weather. Higher sun angle, longer days, higher average highs and lows make my winter enthusiast go away. The 1/31 storm was a suppression for at least 2 runs. Euro barely had a storm in the 72-96 range. It's not unusual to see models lose a storm in the medium range only to bring it back north/stronger as the event nears. I figure you guys would know this after what happened last storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z GFS is very similar to 18z except a tad stronger and a tad north. Need this thing to phase and eject sooner 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Boston gets nailed again on the GFS. 14-18 for S IN/N. KY/S. OH as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z GFS...looks like the coast line switches over to rain on this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z GFS...looks like the coast line switches over to rain on this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow, the OV gets destroyed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 That sneaky piece of energy in N Mexico can be an important player as well. It took until 2-3 days out before the models knew what to do with that SW energy for the Super Bowl storm. Same thing may be the difference with this system. Yes, it's not as strong comparatively speaking as the Super Bowl storm, but any piece of energy, timing, etc could mean big differences in future runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Cold air keeps pushing it south pretty much every run now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Also, if we can get that ridge off the west coast to build back farther west off the coast, it will help the system be able to dig much more in the Plains. Model bias has been to retrograde the trough farther west each day and its something to consider as we are still 144 hours out. The developing -EPO is also a player in this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 When it's cold enough it geys suppressed to the south lol can't catch a break in this pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here is a little technical analysis. Look at the 06z GFS run and you can see why the track of the SLP was farther NW than tonight's 00z run. Pay attn to the break down of the ridge in the NE Pacific near SE AK on tonight's 00z run. This may be model error and because of that it breaks down the ridge and shifts the whole storm SE. At this time, according to the LRC and model ensembles there should be a ridge of HP building the Alaskan Ridge. If that ridge starts coming back in future runs, watch the storm take on a track farther NW. It's very subtle, but significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM is going to be north of 12z, not sure by how much yet though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKIE at HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 1/31 storm was a suppression for at least 2 runs. Euro barely had a storm in the 72-96 range. It's not unusual to see models lose a storm in the medium range only to bring it back north/stronger as the event nears. I figure you guys would know this after what happened last storm. What has me concern about a suppression this time around is that this arctic air mass is much more colder than the SB snowstorm. Still days away for models to change their thoughts, but something to think about this time. We will see what happens. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z GGEM nowhere close to as suppressed as before....getting better with an earlier phase in the southern Plains and ejects out better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM ensembles are all over the place. A lot were faster than OP and a tad north, a couple pretty strong ones, but all over the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 I will be shocked if this returns North. Arctic airmass is just too overwhelming-- if the Arctic stuff early next week is anything like what just blew through DSM-- it's going down to around the Bay of Campeche---- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z Euro no show...no storm whatsoever...maybe some over running snows in the deep south but no defined SLP...the mayhem continues... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gotta love the Euro bringing a Blizzard ( at least for them) to Austin, TX at hour 150. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gotta love the Euro bringing a Blizzard ( at least for them) to Austin, TX at hour 150.Yup, and then it produces a storm up the East Coast! The coast line looks to warm to be snow. 850's are 0C hugging the coastline. Probably an inland snowstorm in JB's back yard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nanook of the North is simply too powerful. Put a fork is this system-- it's past done. Earlier I was joking of course with the low being pushed as far S as the Bay of Campeche from the Arctic air... actually going to be much closer to their then anywhere around here. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 6z GFS wayyyy south. I wish what it is showing for the following weekend would come true though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Another miss. Starting to loose track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 It was obvious a week ago NO storm Tuesday the 16th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's obvious-- especially since the next Tuesday that falls on the 16th of the month is in................... june. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't even care if I get missed by this storm. This storm has unbelievable potential to be something bigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 It might snow in the gulf of mexico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've given up on this system, but the Ohio Valley could get a nice hit. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah we should wait longer before we start threads. Like when the the 84hr NAM comes out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm moving to Boston! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 This thing might get pushed so far south that parts of Mexico could get snow. I'm moving to Boston!Me too!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Speaking of Boston...crazy!!! 3 to 4 FEET of snow on the field at #Fenway. Just incredible with more to come and no melting in site!!! @RedSox @MLB pic.twitter.com/Lrs9fV47xn— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) February 12, 2015 3 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've given up on this system, but the Ohio Valley could get a nice hit.Many of us gave up on the last system as well at this time period which was a mistake. Not saying the same will happen with this system but I believe it's way to early to give up especially 120hrs out. There are many things that can go right and then many can go wrong. I'm not an expert by any means but just glancing at the upper air charts it sure seems that the modeling will change and it could be drastic changes. I see a nice Bermuda High sitting off the SE coast giving us a nice ridge, although weak but still a ridge which is in our favor. The ridge out west looks to be in a favorable position for this storm to cut farther north. I know there is the darn PV in Canada that might force this to go south but that's what we all thought with the last storm. If others can chime in and give their input of what they are seeing that would be great. I just know that all the players are on the field for this to be a pretty intense storm but they all need to play nice together!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 12Z GFS basically shows "no storm". With all this energy I highly doubt this will be just a wave bringing a couple inches to places here and there. Edit: Never mind, it blows up and hits the EC with a major storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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