March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

12z euro and ggem super ridge. Gfs brrrr

[Maxim]

GFS is on its own

[gosaints]

GFS is on its own

Does have some ensemble support

[Maxim]

Does have some ensemble support

Sort of, but no met seems to be buying into it at the moment.

[gosaints]

GGEM ensembles/euro ensembles basically agree with their op runs.    Both of those models would probably get even areas as far east as here to 60 next week.  GFS would max out around 50 and drop of a cliff by end of the week

[Maxim]

All models are showing quite a warm-up around the 20th though.

[ChiTownWeather]

We have seen this several times before this winter. Long term warmth projected to only diminish or be undervalued as we get closer to the warmup. I think we will hit the 40s, but I don't know if we will hit 50s, at least not with the current snowpack

[Geos]

Lol, by then most of the snow will be gone as others are mentioned, much depends on how strong the wind is, if it's relatively calm the lake breeze will probably develop and prevent us from hitting the 50s.

 

The lake breeze did cross my mind. 47° in the point forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper 30s before that.

Now it looks like tomorrow night will be sub zero also. Really crazy for March.

 

If it's one of those warm up's with little wind then the melting snow can lead to fog.

[NEJeremy]

winter storm warning for Hawaii currently! Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa are supposed to get 10-15" of snow. It's always odd to see snow in Hawaii even if it is only on the mountains above 12k feet and is somewhat common out there.

[Maxim]

We have seen this several times before this winter. Long term warmth projected to only diminish or be undervalued as we get closer to the warmup. I think we will hit the 40s, but I don't know if we will hit 50s, at least not with the current snowpack

LOT:

 

EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY BECOMES MORE

ZONAL...WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SHIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA

OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER

AIR MASS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE

COUNTRY. THIS WARM-UP COULD EASY PUSH TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 50S

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD

IS VERY LOW.

[clintbeed1993]

We have seen this several times before this winter. Long term warmth projected to only diminish or be undervalued as we get closer to the warmup. I think we will hit the 40s, but I don't know if we will hit 50s, at least not with the current snowpack

 

But you have to remember that we are now getting into March.  Spring is right around the corner.  The sun is stronger and days are getting longer.  I would put more stock into a warmup now than in the middle of winter.  The models may very well be overestimating the warmth, but you have to expect a major warmup compared to what we have experienced the last 5 weeks.  The weather pattern coming up just screams warmth imo.

[ChiTownWeather]

Absolutely agree Clintbeed1993. I have noticed that the sun is stronger and days are longer as well. I don't think winter is over yet though, after all it is still March. And we have had some big snowstorms in march. But overall, temps are warming

[Tom]

00z GGEM still shows the warm up early next week but may be caving in towards the GFS by Thursday.  It's slower with the arcitc air invading the lower 48, but certainly a different look this run.  MJO is heading towards Phase 5 and the norther tier of states may see the worst of this potential cool down.

[Hawkeye]

GEM definitely took a step toward the GFS.  We need that pacific low to move eastward into the US and not cut off over the ocean.

[Maxim]

The GFS and EURO are still worlds apart from each other for the long range.

[BigDizBliz420]

most gefs are warmer than the op and gem supports euro

[gosaints]

00z GGEM still shows the warm up early next week but may be caving in towards the GFS by Thursday.  It's slower with the arcitc air invading the lower 48, but certainly a different look this run.  MJO is heading towards Phase 5 and the norther tier of states may see the worst of this potential cool down.

Unfortunately the cold that is showing up on some runs is also accompanied by a craptastic pattern for any significant weather.  Basically wash rinse repeat.

[Maxim]

yeah, op GFS is an outlier at this point. hopefully it continues to be one.

[gosaints]

GEFS has less than .25 qpf for a majority of this sub forum through hour 384.

[Maxim]

GEFS has less than .25 qpf for a majority of this sub forum through hour 384.

severe weather season doesn't seem to be off to a good start.

[Tony]

EPO looks to go "big time" negative starting the week of the 15th. Not sure how that will correlate down the road as we will be well into March but to me that could pose a problem as far as sustained warm weather goes.

[Maxim]

EPO looks to go "big time" negative starting the week of the 15th. Not sure how that will correlate down the road as we will be well into March but to me that could pose a problem as far as sustained warm weather goes.

you really hate warm weather don't you

[gosaints]

you really hate warm weather don't you

 

EPO looks to go "big time" negative starting the week of the 15th. Not sure how that will correlate down the road as we will be well into March but to me that could pose a problem as far as sustained warm weather goes.

Could really pose a problem for any interesting weather as well.  Taking anything seriously that far out is a mistake anyways.  

[WildWisconsinWeather]

 

severe weather season doesn't seem to be off to a good start.

 

It rarely starts here until May, though the fact that the Plains aren't off to a good start will possibly affect our prospects as well.

[Tony]

you really hate warm weather don't you

Actually I am so done with winter as cold does nothing for me at all! I would love a repeat of 2012 so I can open up my pool early and enjoy my sons baseball games without wearing any winter gear.

 

I was just stating what we have been seeing all winter long is the D**n -EPO could be rearing its ugly head again. I'm not saying this to keep winter going, just telling you what is showing up on the models.

[gosaints]

CFS v2 doesnt smell anything that the GFS is cooking for week 3 either.

[Tony]

Could really pose a problem for any interesting weather as well.  Taking anything seriously that far out is a mistake anyways.  

Yep, I hope its wrong and it is long range for sure. At least it looks like a decent warm-up for early next week.

[Maxim]

Actually I am so done with winter as cold does nothing for me at all! I would love a repeat of 2012 so I can open up my pool early and enjoy my sons baseball games without wearing any winter gear.

 

I was just stating what we have been seeing all winter long is the D**n -EPO could be rearing its ugly head again. I'm not saying this to keep winter going, just telling you what is showing up on the models.

It's two weeks out, the models have been flip-flopping back and forth between warmth and cold, and it's March. I'd take anything past week one with a grain of salt. Yeah, a Morch 2012 redux would be nice

[Maxim]

severe weather season doesn't seem to be off to a good start.

 

 

It rarely starts here until May, though the fact that the Plains aren't off to a good start will possibly affect our prospects as well.

Wasn't even talking about our area, but usually March is an active severe weather month for the deep south.

[FV-Mike]

severe weather season doesn't seem to be off to a good start.

I can't remember sever weather in the Chicago area until beginning of April at the earliest.

[FV-Mike]

Wasn't even talking about our area, but usually March is an active severe weather month for the deep south.

Got it

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Wasn't even talking about our area, but usually March is an active severe weather month for the deep south.

 

What happens in the Deep South though doesn't affect us nearly as much as what happens in the Plains.  The South can have a very bad drought and we get frequent storms.

 

I understand though now.  I thought you were insinuating the lack of severe in other areas would translate up here, but it was my fault for reading too much into it.

[Hawkeye]

Man, they got a historic snowstorm down in Kentucky.  Several locations are now in the 21-23" range(they got 2" of rain, too).  We just can't get that kind of stuff up here.  The Superbowl storm was about as good as we can do and I only got 11.5" from it.  Sometimes it just pays to be closer to the moisture source.

[Tom]

EPO looks to go "big time" negative starting the week of the 15th. Not sure how that will correlate down the road as we will be well into March but to me that could pose a problem as far as sustained warm weather goes.

GEFS Ensembles agree...not only that, but both GFS/EURO see the WPO head negative around the 10th/11th.  SST's in the Pacific don't support a sustained +EPO.  I agree with you that sustained warm weather is a "dream" in this type of pattern.

 

Meantime, JMA Weeklies see ridging across the lower 48 Week 1.  Week 2 the model is seeing a ridge across the GL and East.  Week 3 & 4 it's seeing the NW NAMER ridge pop and major late season cold across the central/eastern CONUS.

 

The last couple runs of the GEFS Ensembles are seeing the NW NAMER ridge forming around Day 12.  Something to watch down the road.

[gosaints]

I can see cold but unfortunately I dont see cold and stormy in the future

[gosaints]

Looks like the GFS has laid off at least some totally different look end of next week

[Maxim]

GFS does look warmer through hour 144. Curious to know what it shows after that.

[gosaints]

GFS does look warmer through hour 144. Curious to know what it shows after that.

Through 186 way warmer.  Not a torch by any means but not winter either

[Hawkeye]

Definitely a step back toward the Euro.  The 12z run slows the strong shortwave in western Canada slowing compared to previous runs.  Now, instead of diving right down into the upper midwest it ends up scooting more eastward across southern Canada.  It also allows the pacific low to get under it a little, which helps bump the warm ridge.

 

Edit:  It's certainly not warm later in the week and into the weekend.  It'd still be kinda lousy.  But, it's not real cold like previous runs.  In the 7-10 day period it's really trying hard to keep the ridge-west trough-east pattern established, though.

[gosaints]

Definitely a step back toward the Euro.  The 12z run slows the strong shortwave in western Canada slowing compared to previous runs.  Now, instead of diving right down into the upper midwest it ends up scooting more eastward across southern Canada.  It also allows the pacific low to get under it a little, which helps bump the warm ridge.

 

Edit:  It's certainly not warm later in the week and into the weekend.  It'd still be kinda lousy.  But, it's not real cold like previous runs.  In the 7-10 day period it's really trying hard to keep the ridge-west trough-east pattern established, though.

It mutes the warm up more than any other model thats for sure.  It has played that song and dance before.  Could be right of course.  Its more typical march than anything on the GFS verbatim.