March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

I assume you are talking about Schnack? He wasn't on today. This forecast is Eileen. And I don't buy anything she says.

 

I'm talking about Eileen's forecast today.  She has been a local met in eastern Iowa longer than Schnack.

[Money]

Hmm.

 

0z GFS shows temps not getting above 35 from about HR 240 towards the end of it's run.

 

0z EURO shows a L developing in OK at HR 240 with colder temps in WI/IL/IA and north. 

[gosaints]

Hmm.

 

0z GFS shows temps not getting above 35 from about HR 240 towards the end of it's run.

 

0z EURO shows a L developing in OK at HR 240 with colder temps in WI/IL/IA and north.

It's gonna cool down but the gfs is the coldest model. Ensembles are basically average here days 11-15 with you guys a degree below normal. Canadian ensembles similar.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Hmm.

 

0z GFS shows temps not getting above 35 from about HR 240 towards the end of it's run.

 

0z EURO shows a L developing in OK at HR 240 with colder temps in WI/IL/IA and north. 

 

Lol, I think even I will root against a late season snowstorm this year, time for Spring to set in for good, hopefully accompanied by some t'storm action.

[Maxim]

Hmm.

 

0z GFS shows temps not getting above 35 from about HR 240 towards the end of it's run.

 

0z EURO shows a L developing in OK at HR 240 with colder temps in WI/IL/IA and north.

 

yeah okay, lol

[gosaints]

Tomorrow will be the warmest march 925 temps that we have seen in this area since 2012

[gosaints]

Hmm.

 

0z GFS shows temps not getting above 35 from about HR 240 towards the end of it's run.

 

0z EURO shows a L developing in OK at HR 240 with colder temps in WI/IL/IA and north. 

35 really?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015030900/gfs_T2m_us_47.png

And thats at what 7 PM

[Maxim]

grasping at straws, wishcasting, whatever you'd like to call it.

[Tom]

Tomorrow will be the warmest march 925 temps that we have seen in this area since 2012

High near 60F around here is going to feel real nice.  Probably won't see anything close to that till maybe the following Monday around here.  Dang lake breeze.

[gosaints]

Up to 41 at rochester.  MOS had a high of 44. Will only bust by about 10 degrees.

[Tom]

FWIW, it's going to get pretty darn chilly relatively speaking sometime around the 20th.  There is no question of IF, but WHEN.  In the meantime, for those of us around the Lakes we should enjoy this warm weather as much as possible.  By mid/late next week is when the pattern will begin to change.  Hopefully a more active one.

 

I like the look of the storm developing in the Plains Day 10 on the Euro as it fits with my target date of the 17th-19th.  With blocking around, this storm could be another very interesting system for the central CONUS.

 

Euro Ensembles keep getting broader with the cold coming Day 10-15.  Enjoy the Spring "tease".

[gosaints]

FWIW, it's going to get pretty darn chilly relatively speaking sometime around the 20th.  There is no question of IF, but WHEN.  In the meantime, for those of us around the Lakes we should enjoy this warm weather as much as possible.  By mid/late next week is when the pattern will begin to change.  Hopefully a more active one.

 

I like the look of the storm developing in the Plains Day 10 on the Euro as it fits with my target date of the 17th-19th.  With blocking around, this storm could be another very interesting system for the central CONUS.

 

Euro Ensembles keep getting broader with the cold coming Day 10-15.  Enjoy the Spring "tease".

Very typical to be up and down in march especially around here.  The 10 day stretch starting on the 7th will be quite an anomaly around here

[Tom]

Very typical to be up and down in march especially around here.  The 10 day stretch starting on the 7th will be quite an anomaly around here

The northern Plains are going to torch by their standards.  Down sloping winds are going to work some magic.

 

It's been a brutal stretch since Feb 1st and this 10 day warm up is going to feel good for a lot of us on this forum.

[gosaints]

The northern Plains are going to torch by their standards.  Down sloping winds are going to work some magic.

 

It's been a brutal stretch since Feb 1st and this 10 day warm up is going to feel good for a lot of us on this forum.

The most brutal part of it has been the ridiculously low amount of snow that anyplace north of i80/88 have recieved with that could.  Will be dry as a popcorn fart around here by the start of next week

[james1976]

I'm talking about Eileen's forecast today.  She has been a local met in eastern Iowa longer than Schnack.

She has?? What station?

[Maxim]

Lol, the GFS is so bad... too low on the temps once again today.

[SE Wisconsin]

It appears things a aligning for a major outbreak of cold for late March into early April.  Tom's posting a couple of days ago show all the major indexes going over to a cold signal.  In addition, the MJO is forecast to move with a relatively strong signal into a colder phase in a couple of weeks.  On top of all that, I saw on JB's Facebook page that a significant stratwarm event is projected for late March.  And if that wasn't enough, we will be moving into the cold phase of the LRC by then.  I think the question is not if, maybe not even when, but will this be just a run-of-the-mill cold outbreak or one that is truly extraordinary?

[Maxim]

It appears things a aligning for a major outbreak of cold for late March into early April.  Tom's posting a couple of days ago show all the major indexes going over to a cold signal.  In addition, the MJO is forecast to move with a relatively strong signal into a colder phase in a couple of weeks.  On top of all that, I saw on JB's Facebook page that a significant stratwarm event is projected for late March.  And if that wasn't enough, we will be moving into the cold phase of the LRC by then.  I think the question is not if, maybe not even when, but will this be just a run-of-the-mill cold outbreak or one that is truly extraordinary?

Your first mistake was listening to JB. I hope you're just trolling, but if not, stop buying into everything you hear and learn the weather yourself.

[Tom]

Your first mistake was listening to JB. I hope you're just trolling, but if not, stop buying into everything you hear and learn the weather yourself.

Man, someone drank the hator-aid this morning.....

[tim the weatherman]

stratwarming stands for stratospheric warming.

[Money]

Your first mistake was listening to JB. I hope you're just trolling, but if not, stop buying into everything you hear and learn the weather yourself.

 

You are a moron who is a dumb a** troll. 

[Hawkeye]

She has?? What station?

 

I think KGAN.  I was in college in 1993 when she started.

[gosaints]

GFS had a high of 44 in la crosse today.  They are already at 54.  I see the cold bias is still in the new GFS

[Tom]

If the Euro Ensembles are right, the Spring Solstice this year may have quite the opening as blocking will get things rocking "March" style.  It may be more like late winter than Spring around this period.  

[Tom]

12z Euro also going to bust with temps here.  It has ORD hitting 43F.  I think the models are over playing the snow cover and that is the problem here.

[Maxim]

You are a moron who is a dumb a** troll.

 

lol no wonder why you're banned on Americanwx

[Maxim]

Anybody with half a brain would realize that JB is a weenie who calls for cold all the time. And when the cold does transpire, he gets all conceited about it.

[Maxim]

GFS had a high of 44 in la crosse today.  They are already at 54.  I see the cold bias is still in the new GFS

So much for an "improved" model...

[Tom]

Anybody with half a brain would realize that JB is a weenie who calls for cold all the time. And when the cold does transpire, he gets all conceited about it.

In JB's defense, he does make calls for "pullbacks" during the winter months and is a far better long range forecaster than our own Gov't (NOAA).  He recognizes hemispheric/global/oceanic weather patterns that are all cyclical in nature, rather than push an agenda that others have interest in.

[CentralNebWeather]

Central Nebraska setting at 54 at 1:37 PM.  Lots of downsloping over the next week, they have most of Nebraska, Kansas, Western Iowa, Western Missouri, Southern South Dakota in the 60's and some 70's.  Will be minimal snow in any part of this board by late week.  I am sure the models still have that bias towards a snow pack.

[SE Wisconsin]

Sorry if I upset you Maxim.  I admit, I don't know that much about the weather, not nearly as much as you, Tom or most of the others that post frequently on this forum.  But the weather is something that always fascinates me and I like reading all the weather related blogs that I have time for.  I'd like to think that I can occasionally post here and add a least a little to the discussion.  Even if it is based on the observations of others you may not agree with.  As for JB, I've observed he is most often eventually right, but he does have a tendency to get way out in front and jump the gun on things, and he seems to have a cold bias at times.

[Tom]

Today through next Monday will probably be the best stretch of "warmer" weather overall in this sub forum for this month IMO.  Late next Monday the front comes through and knocks down temps which will begin the transition into cooler than normal weather in general.

Taking into consideration what the Ensembles/Blocking and the LRC are saying, the back half of the month will turn out less "Spring like" than what I think some may way to believe.

[Maxim]

I agree it will get cooler, but to call for a major cold outbreak that will break records is pretty knee-jerk in my opinion.

[gosaints]

I am pretty sure we are all wrong all the time as well.  Anyways EURO says 60s tomorrow, Upper 50s Wed, Mid 60s thurs and Friday.  No matter what happens last half of month good look getting high temp departures of these magnitudes in the cold stretch.  Average is 37 right now

[gosaints]

I agree it will get cooler, but to call for a major cold outbreak that will break records is pretty knee-jerk in my opinion.

Better have snowpack to do that

[Tom]

I agree it will get cooler, but to call for a major cold outbreak that will break records is pretty knee-jerk in my opinion.

If you look at the different cold cycles of the LRC this season, since cycle #1 it has set record low temps in various areas in the lower 48.  Now, just think about that for a second and then add to the fact that we are seeing hemispheric blocking developing mid month that would make sense to last through the end of the month given the seasonal weakening of the jet.  Take both of these ideas together and record late season cold is on the table.  Where does the really cold air set up is the million dollar question?

[Maxim]

If you look at the different cold cycles of the LRC this season, since cycle #1 it has set record low temps in various areas in the lower 48. Now, just think about that for a second and then add to the fact that we are seeing hemispheric blocking developing mid month that would make sense to last through the end of the month given the seasonal weakening of the jet. Take both of these ideas together and record late season cold is on the table. Where does the really cold air set up is the million dollar question?

As gosaints stated earlier, we'll need a snowpack up north if we want to get close to record cold.

[Jaycee]

I hope everyone is wrong about the cold. I've been over snow since January and am beyond sick of cold temperatures. I'd take a severe weather outbreak over it anyday. I'm studying outside rn, and love it. Let's keep it this way!

[NEJeremy]

These are my forecast highs for the next 7 days, I think I will enjoy it while it's here

62, 72, 73, 69, 64, 58, 61

[gabel23]

If the Euro Ensembles are right, the Spring Solstice this year may have quite the opening as blocking will get things rocking "March" style.  It may be more like late winter than Spring around this period.  

Actually Tom, this is the Science Teacher in me talking, you mean the spring (Vernal) Equinox. The Solstices occur in June and December!!