February 2014 in the PNW

[KMartin]

I like your posts. Thanks for explaining things and showing the maps.

Thanks, welcome.  Best way I can describe advection is like orographical lifting.  The mountains are miles away but the effects downstream result in heavier precipitation as a result.  Same with moisture advection numbers

[BLI snowman]

It is pretty much insanity out here. We are over 18" at the moment. Drifts over halfway taller than my car. We live in a split-level with the windows on the lower story at ground level. Can't even see out of them now due to drifting. This is like living at Timberline Lodge.

 

Temp is 24.

 

Happy that you got to experience a true gorge snowstorm. They can be pretty awesome, especially if you avoid the obligatory 1-2" of ice afterwards.

[BLI snowman]

How much do you think PDX has recorded so far?

 

Think they had around 3" on Thursday, about 2" yesterday, and a bit more today so far. They should end up over 10", the lightness of the precip surprised me yesterday.

[luterra]

Got about a quarter inch of ice accumulation at our place W of Philomath.  Up to 33 now and am thinking we will stay above freezing from here on out.  Could still be surprised.

[KMartin]

Here's the surface low overlay.  Seems to be following the 12Z GFS pretty well. 

 

http://theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum5.jpg

[KMartin]

Could any of you tell me how much snow PDX got so far today.  With that I can find at least the correct model out of 15 that predicted that and get an idea maybe what Seattle might see based off the trend performence. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here's the surface low overlay.  Seems to be following the 12Z GFS pretty well. 

 

http://theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum5.jpg

Sat pics look to be taking it further north than gfs? what do you think?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z nam for sure further north with low than 12z. Looks better for Seattle. Sat pics show this trend as well. This is much better.

[KMartin]

This is where the surface low will be in a couple hours.  Seems to be in line with satellite and mesoanalysis.   The image is 12z GFS

 

http://theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum6.jpg

[MossMan]

Just stopped by the lake house and it looks like over half of Lake Goodwin is frozen over!

 

Just tried uploading a pic, but apparently the file size is too big? That's annoying!

[GHweatherChris]

Radar is looking very promising now, could see some snow this afternoon.

[Skagit Weather]

Where is that picture from?

As far as I can tell this hasn't been answered yet. I am pretty sure that is Lake Shore Drive in Chicago after the February 2011 blizzard.

 

http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/nwitimes.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/7/f4/7f4aaab0-19f3-5f97-966d-e5ae861923a0/4d4a12c54c070.preview-620.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Also 18z nam keeps off shore flow going most of sunday. Hmm And the -3c 850 line is still way down by Vancuver Wa at 18z.

[KMartin]

Just stopped by the lake house and it looks like over half of Lake Goodwin is frozen over!

 

Just tried uploading a pic, but apparently the file size is too big? That's annoying!

Yeah someone knocked the file limit down from 1mb to 56kb or so lol.  idk what kind of image one can get with 56k.  I'm just uploading mine on my server and linking them.

[Perturbed Member]

18z nam for sure further north with low than 12z. Looks better for Seattle. Sat pics show this trend as well. This is much better.

 

Portland seems right in the bullseye?

 

Seems to be some kind of back edge to the precip on the PDX radar already? Wonder if that will fill in or if there is more behind it. 

[KMartin]

Here is the surface low now -

 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum8.jpg

[TT-SEA]

I know Kevin rubbed people the wrong way in the past... but his analysis on here is immensely helpful and I really appreciate it.

[The Swamp]

I doubt it will end up snowing in Puyallup. It's 42 degrees here now. Maybe next time.

[epiceast]

12z GFS - nothing

12z GEM - looking good

12z Euro - scraps off the table

12z Nam -  nothing

 

18z NAM - not bad so far, hour 36 could be a bit colder seems like its only snow for Bham Vancouver and Hood canal at that point.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I know Kevin rubbed people the wrong way in the past... but his analysis on here is immensely helpful and I really appreciate it.

Hell yeah, awesome addition to the forum.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I doubt it will end up snowing in Puyallup. It's 42 degrees here now. Maybe next time.

That 42 wont matter when the precipitation gets there. What's the dew point?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z GFS - nothing

12z GEM - looking good

12z Euro - scraps off the table

12z Nam -  nothing

18z nam has snow for Seattle tonight now.

[Deweydog]

Nice little burst of silver dollar flakes here.  Very heavy.  Definitely a "warmer" snow than we've seen so far.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Coast radar says precipitation wont be long now. This is looking good.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nice little burst of silver dollar flakes here.  Very heavy.  Definitely a "warmer" snow than we've seen so far.  

How much on ground?

[BLI snowman]

12z GFS - nothing

12z GEM - looking good

12z Euro - scraps off the table

12z Nam -  nothing

 

18z NAM - not bad so far

 

?

 

12z GFS shows a good event for the Seattle area tonight.

 

[epiceast]

?

 

12z GFS shows a good event for the Seattle area tonight.

 

gfs_namer_018_1000_500_thick.gif

not mm5

[HighlandExperience]

I know Kevin rubbed people the wrong way in the past... but his analysis on here is immensely helpful and I really appreciate it.

 

Yup props to Kevin. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That 42 wont matter when the precipitation gets there. What's the dew point?

There are dew points in the teens in your area. You will have snow. Even if it starts as mix. It will change.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

not mm5

Could be wrong.

[KMartin]

Here is the WRF-ARW for like 2am or so tomorrow morning.  

 

Kind of shows similar returns to the advection map earlier. 

 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum9.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

Coast radar says precipitation wont be long now. This is looking good.

 

Coastal radar looking way better than yesterday at this point.

[epiceast]

Anyway I would say half an inch to 3 for Seattle before the warmup unless GEM is right. Something stupid for Hood Canal and probably 6+ for Vancouver BC with a sharp cut off in Bellingham metro depending on how Fraser outflow works.

[KMartin]

At least down here the ARW is superior to the NMM or WRF.  So maybe it'll prove the same up there if it is correct.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nws going for 1-3 from Olympia south. Cool.

[Deweydog]

How much on ground?

 

We've picked up almost two inches in the last three hours or so.  Probably about eight on the ground now.  

[epiceast]

We've picked up almost two inches in the last three hours or so.  Probably about eight on the ground now.  

You should open a new thread for snowfall total brags.

[GHweatherChris]

Duration of precip on the radar does not look great right now, hopefully it will fill in as it continues moving towards us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We've picked up almost two inches in the last three hours or so.  Probably about eight on the ground now.  

How long has it been since you've had this much?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You should open a new thread for snowfall total brags.

 

My total Tuesday-Friday was 8.5" 

 

Not bad for all the bitching I've been doing.