February 2014 in the PNW

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Maybe  a little surprise snow is in the cards for a few.

[HighlandExperience]

Maybe  a little surprise snow is in the cards for a few.

 

It would be nice if we were surprised by snow tomorrow at some point.

[westcoastexpat]

Even without -6 850 temps and strong outflow!!?? Wow amazing.

 

Who said that? 

[brody]

It would be nice if we were surprised by snow tomorrow at some point.

doubtful

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem was getting snow with -3C 850mb temps a week and a half ago...lol

[luvssnow_spokane]

38 with cold heavy rain here...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Oz buries us in snow.

[HighlandExperience]

Oz buries us in snow.

 

Now you are getting my hopes up again. 

[Weather101]

Now you are getting my hopes up again.

Me too.. What day and how much lol

[snow_wizard]

Looking potentially interesting for lowland snow this weekend. The past 2 WRF runs both showed significant lowland snow and this GFS operational is by far better than the previous 0z and 12z runs. I'm amazed to see it holding onto this possibility given the delicate nature of the pattern. I'm betting tonight's WRF will be fun. Hopefully the Canadian and Euro will be more on board than they were on the 12z.

[Jesse]

Looking potentially interesting for lowland snow this weekend. The past 2 WRF runs both showed significant lowland snow and this GFS operational is by far better than the previous 0z and 12z runs. I'm amazed to see it holding onto this possibility given the delicate nature of the pattern. I'm betting tonight's WRF will be fun. Hopefully the Canadian and Euro will be more on board than they were on the 12z.

 

Nice to see you back.

 

The 00Z is really good. I imagine even I might see some snow next weekend with that scenario.

[snow_wizard]

Wow! The GFS shows widespread heavy snowfall for a good part of Western WA on this run. Pressure gradients are still NE by Sunday evening. At that time SEA has already had at least 0.5" of water. I'm still suspicious, but this run is undeniably colder than the 12z which the WRF interpreted as being cold enough for lowland snow.

[BLI snowman]

Salem was getting snow with -3C 850mb temps a week and a half ago...lol

 

It happens all the time elsewhere north of surface lows. It shows how instrumental offshore flow is. Most of the country doesn't have the Pacific Ocean (and Cascades) to worry about.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see you back.

 

The 00Z is really good. I imagine even I might see some snow next weekend with that scenario.

This winter has been one of worst emotional roller coasters in a long time. Looks like we could pull off a miracle this weekend. If this were to verify it would be amazing to have NW Oregon get pounded in early Feb, and then the Puget Sound area later in the same month.

[snow_wizard]

It happens all the time elsewhere north of surface lows. It shows how instrumental offshore flow is. Most of the country doesn't have the Pacific Ocean (and Cascades) to worry about.

I am really liking your chances for snow in the coming days. Could be good here too.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow! The GFS shows widespread heavy snowfall for a good part of Western WA on this run. Pressure gradients are still NE by Sunday evening. At that time SEA has already had at least 0.5" of water. I'm still suspicious, but this run is undeniably colder than the 12z which the WRF interpreted as being cold enough for lowland snow.

 

If we had a nice wide spread snow Sunday, that will redeem some aspects of this winter for me. 

[Jesse]

This winter has been one of worst emotional roller coasters in a long time. Looks like we could pull off a miracle this weekend. If this were to verify it would be amazing to have NW Oregon get pounded in early Feb, and then the Puget Sound area later in the same month.

 

I am pulling for you guys! 

 

Seeing the Euro trend in this direction last night then back off for the 12Z run today was a let down. Hopefully tonight's 00Z is kinder.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS still has snow north of Olympia Monday morning. Totally insane if it verifies.

[BLI snowman]

I am really liking your chances for snow in the coming days. Could be good here too.

 

We're due.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the CFS has totally bought into the cold snap this weekend and into very early next week now. Amazingly that model handled the cold wave earlier this month better than any other model by far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Once again my prime location will be screwed...Just that kind of winter up here.

[snow_wizard]

Once again my prime location will be screwed...Just that kind of winter up here.

How much did you get earlier in the month?

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian is a tad better, but still not nearly as good as the GFS. The interesting thing is the GFS is a lot better than previous even as soon as day 3 and 4. Going to be interesting to see where this goes.

[BLI snowman]

Also a March 1 alert on the 00z. Historically it really likes to snow that day. Sub 480 thickness in ND with that. The way this winter's going I could probably buy it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How much did you get earlier in the month?

 

8.5"

[Poulsbo Snowman]

8.5"

Snow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow?

 

Yep

 

I'm up to 10" or so of rain now!

[bainbridgekid]

FWIW:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow72.132.0000.gif

 

Still tons of model spread and this is a very volatile pattern so there is obviously still enormous uncertainty but that sure is purdy.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Looks good for NW WA

 

 

Somehow the snow miraculously avoids my area... it's been that kind of winter.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW:

 

 

Still tons of model spread and this is a very volatile pattern so there is obviously still enormous uncertainty but that sure is purdy.

This has tremendous potential. It's a matter of getting the balance just right though. I do like the fact the 0z GFS was the best run yet for this potential event. Even though the CFS isn't supposed to be a short range model it did well with the early month event and it is jumping all over this one now. Calling for a 5 day mean temp average around 6C to 8C below normal.

[HighlandExperience]

FWIW:

 

 

 

Still tons of model spread and this is a very volatile pattern so there is obviously still enormous uncertainty but that sure is purdy.

 

Now that would be a nice change. Looks like 5 to 8 inches in the central sound. 

[Weather101]

Looks good for NW WA

 

 

Somehow the snow miraculously avoids my area... it's been that kind of winter.

I like. I feel like you're get snow too and it's still 5-6 days away and it could be all rain by time tmrw models come and that always happends as we get closer , I'll be nice for once if it gets better and trends great not negative

[snow_wizard]

Looks good for NW WA

 

 

Somehow the snow miraculously avoids my area... it's been that kind of winter.

Too much outflow.

[umadbro]

Yep

 

I'm up to 10" or so of rain now!

Many locations down lower in the valley have more than that.  The last snow storm dropped 13-14 inches total at my place.  I know you know this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Many locations down lower in the valley have more than that.  The last snow storm dropped 13-14 inches total at my place.  I know you know this.

 

yeah I know. Corvallis and Eugene have owned me. We have talked about this often on fb.

 

But of course I will mention I had 98" of snow in 2011-12.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble strongly supports the operational...at least at the 500mb level. A number of members are even better.

 

The WRF indicates it will simply dry out on Monday instead of turning over to rain. What an amazing February this would be for the NW if this event were to verify. From major Arctic blast and heavy lowland snow (especially south of Olympia), to the heaviest February snowfall in MANY years in the Cascades, to another lowland snow event.

[snow_wizard]

One thing for sure...I will be happy to see the endless heavy rain and wind of the past week come to an end. It has been UGLY!

[snow_wizard]

yeah I know. Corvallis and Eugene have owned me. We have talked about this often on fb.

 

But of course I will mention I had 98" of snow in 2011-12.

I can't wait for a winter where we have major Arctic outbreaks and heavy lowland snow for everyone. We have certainly been nibbling at the edges of doing it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This has been a great winter for Corvallis and Eugene!

 

But I just looked at the PDX ensembles and the 00z has about half the members pretty cold for this weekend! Interesting times we are living in!

[Parksvillewx]

UW WRF kicks it all off on Saturday 10am...

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/wrf-2.jpg

 

Man, this would be nice to verify.  My location is right in the middle of it.  Basically, if 11 snowflakes fell, and landed in the same spot I'd have more snow then I've had all winter.