February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

Any ideas what GFS will be showing???  I'm thinking it starts correcting NW.  Remember, LRC had this storm as a lower lakes cutter.  Gotta believe in the LRC as it has been impeccable this year forecasting systems.

[winterfreak]

Gary Lezak is the man.

[BLIZZARD09]

who is tammy fox?

[DominicR]

who is tammy fox?

 

Met on Fox. She does it on weekends I think only.

[DominicR]

Lol Jim on WGN "this stuff just won't go away"

[The Snowman]

GFS looking a bit north as it digs.

[Tom]

00z GFS...nice hit KS/MO/C IL...not budging on NW trend.  Baby steps I guess...

[DominicR]

Yeah good for 3-6 inches still here with stripe of 6-12 inches in E KS/N MO/C IL/IN.

[Tom]

I just don't understand how this model can take a storm directly into a High Pressure on the east coast...should be a Cutter.

[Tom]

00z GFS does pick up on the LES...

[DominicR]

I just don't understand how this model can take a storm directly into a High Pressure on the east coast...should be a Cutter.

 

60+ hrs to go. Plenty of time. GFS does have support so def can't ignore it.

[tim the weatherman]

that is just wrong tom this this model must be confused.

[DominicR]

00z GFS does pick up on the LES...

 

What about ratios? Does those maps pick up on it? Temps hovering upper teens/low 20s for event then prehaps some lake enhancement involved? I still think at least the far NE counties of IL has good shot at 6+ even if GFS verifies.

[DominicR]

that is just wrong tom this this model must be confused.

 

No. NAM is a outlier right now.  System is impeding eastward rather than just wrapping NW nicely like it did a few days ago. Something that been quite common luckily pattern been active here.

[Tom]

00z GFS more aggressive also with the High Pressure in Canada as well...NAM has it farther NW a few hundred miles that's why NAM cuts up lower lakes.

[Tom]

Dom, those GFS snowfall maps do pick up on ratios but not necessarily for LES this far out.

[DominicR]

Ok but lets not write this off yet. Worst case a advisory 3-6 inches and maybe some more near lake. We also have next weekend to.

[Tom]

Its funny to see the GFS first show a Cutter, now going back to its easterly bias, but the NAM is showing a lower lakes Cutter.  I'm really curious if the GGEM/EURO stay put or start a NW trend.

[Geos]

00z GFS...nice hit KS/MO/C IL...not budging on NW trend.  Baby steps I guess...

 

Looks like dry air issues around here.

 

0z NAM

 

 

If winds are off the lake it will probably be between 20-25° for this event.

[East Dubzz]

Dry air, cold air. That's the problem with this abnormally cold year, it's been preventing any big storms over here. I know you Chicagioans for lucky, but not so much here. Just a bunch of 1-3" clippers

[DominicR]

GGEM not impressive. Similar to GFS. Maybe even weaker.

[winterfreak]

Yeah NAM is on its own for this one. There seems to be a consesus with every other model.

[Tom]

Whenever storms dig deep into the 4 corners region, models have a hard time nailing down the track.  We're not going to get consensus until Sunday night's 00z runs or even Monday 12z runs.

 

Edit:  SW originating systems are always interesting to track because you have many variables involved...

[winterfreak]

I think we can all agree that this thing isn't going to bomb out just based on the last several days of model runs.

[DominicR]

I think we can all agree that this thing isn't going to bomb out just based on the last several days of model runs.

 

Your area looks good still on GFS.

[Jaycee]

Your area looks good still on GFS.

Mine doesn't...

[DominicR]

Mine doesn't...

 

SE NE looks good still for 6-10 inches. Omaha/Lincoln near border. Hastings look advisory type right now. That being precise this early.

[Tom]

00z GGEM Snowfall...

 

[DominicR]

00z GGEM Snowfall...

 

Wow that looks like crap.

[winterfreak]

Wow the GGEM is lame lol. Still hoping the Friday system turns into something big.

[DominicR]

UKMET south to.

[Paulie21]

Yeah, sad to admit but the NAM is an outlier at the point. Every other model is weaker and south. This has tons of potential with the baraclinic zone, the moisture transport could be more optimal with a negatively tilted trough. The only thing that is keeping me from giving up is that the NAM had 2 runs in a row of that and the WRF looks like a major hit for ORD too.

 

[DominicR]

  St. Louis WRF

[DominicR]

They typically do good in those strong dynamic/messocale systems.

[Paulie21]

Agree, 4km NAM looked favorable up to the end if its period, however, i think given the larger grid size of the GFS and Euro, they have a better idea of the energy the vorts can get outside the NAM grid since there's more that comes into play. It's anyone's call really, but until the GFS, Euro, or GGEM bring it back north, I don't think i'll favor the NAM quite yet.

[Tom]

D**n, WRF brings 1.5" qpf in N IL and some more...I like the nice comma shaped signature.  Severe storms out ahead of it wrapped back into cold sector.  That's the type of system this can become.  We are going back to the pattern we saw in December and there weren't any east coast storms in a -PNA/+NAO pattern.

[Sciascia]

Gonna need another full day of models. Seeing the NAM run a similar solution back to back is great...seeing almost every other model run a much different solution back to back isn't letting this super optimist believe in the NAM.

[Tom]

This storm reminds me of the Cut Off storm in Cycle 2 of the LRC that dug deep into 4 Corner's/N Mexico that hit the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes back in December.  It produced snow all the way up this way even though it was rather weak and tracked through S IL/S IN. 

[Tom]

00z Euro decent hit for KS/NE/S IA/N MO....

 

 

[winterfreak]

This storm reminds me of the Cut Off storm in Cycle 2 of the LRC that dug deep into 4 Corner's/N Mexico that hit the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes back in December.  It produced snow all the way up this way even though it was rather weak and tracked through S IL/S IN. 

Looks like you're giving up on this one. Come on man lol. If the NAM holds serve it will be interesting to see which model wins out.