TacomaWaWx Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 71 here at 330…not a bad day will probably end up a -3 or so departure. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Daily satellite imagery. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 41 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: If anthropogenic climate change is caused by greenhouse gases, then you’d expect to see the climate gradually change over the last half century as greenhouse gases slowly rise. However, if you look at the frequency of big cold events in the PNW, it isn’t a gradual change - around 1998, it’s like a switch was flipped, and a sudden nosedive occurred. The simplest explanation and the one I believe in (not that it’s definitively correct) is that it was a natural shift in the Pacific Hadley Cell regime. Tying a singular event down to anthropogenic climate change is much harder. What caused the atmosphere to set up in the incredible way it did? Would this be possible with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentration? Would it be possible during the circulation regime a century ago? Those questions are extremely hard if not impossible to answer, at least from my perspective. Or the system response to GHG increase (or any given forcing, for that matter) may be nonlinear/state dependent. Hard, if not impossible, to argue humans haven’t contributed to the post-LIA warming. Though obviously we’re the not the sole cause of it, given it started before the industrial revolution, while GHG emissions weren’t significant enough to affect climate (to a statistically significant degree) until WWII. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 We hit 90; this is going to be an incredible stretch of 90+ days. Today is number 15. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Nice jump in temp here... turned into another gorgeous afternoon. Should be limited marine layer now through maybe next Wednesday or Thursday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.2466&lon=-116.817#.YOeIPBZlCEe Holy crap! NWS has 131°F forecast in Death Valley 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Up to 80F and beautiful all day. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Jack Fire up to 4200 acres. My friend just sent me a radar image picking up the smoke column of the Bootleg Fire. That thing is roaring. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: Up to 80F and beautiful all day. Another warm one! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Little did I know that the downpour on the afternoon of June 15th here that I said was ushering in the start of true summer pattern would mean the end of all rainfall. Seems very likely it will be easily a month and probably more without any meaningful rainfall here... could be reminiscent of 2017 when it stopped raining on June 18th and did not really rain again until September 18th. Time will tell... but there is not really any rain in sight right now and it normally rains in my area at times in the summer. I have mentioned before that the first half of the 20th century also featured many very long dry spells in the summer in this area. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: We hit 90; this is going to be an incredible stretch of 90+ days. Today is number 15. Pretty crazy to see TWC forecasting 5 consecutive 100+ days for Alturas and Susanville starting tomorrow. Those locations average around 2 days a year 100+ according to Nowdata. Klamath 97-99 throughout that period, Sunriver a relatively comfortable 92-95. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Oh no. What a nightmare. https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=501705484265985 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Nice improvement on the 18z GEFS. Notably stronger with the westside marine influence. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Pretty crazy to see TWC forecasting 5 consecutive 100+ days for Alturas and Susanville starting tomorrow. Those locations average around 2 days a year 100+ according to Nowdata. Klamath 97-99 throughout that period, Sunriver a relatively comfortable 92-95. Here's the longest stretches of 90 degree days or hotter (in a row) since 2010 I compiled. 2021 is definitely an anomaly. 2021: 15 (and counting) 2020: 8 2019: 3 2018: 9 2017: 8 2016: 10 2015: 6 2014: 10 2013: 6 2012: 7 2011: 2 2010: 3 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Little did I know that the downpour on the afternoon of June 15th here that I said was ushering in the start of true summer pattern would mean the end of all rainfall. Seems very likely it will be easily a month and probably more without any meaningful rainfall here... could be reminiscent of 2017 when it stopped raining on June 18th and did not really rain again until September 18th. Time will tell... but there is not really any rain in sight right now and it normally rains in my area at times in the summer. I have mentioned before that the first half of the 20th century also featured many very long dry spells in the summer in this area. The old NOAA averages show a drier NW back in the early 20th century. Cycles happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 31 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.2466&lon=-116.817#.YOeIPBZlCEe Holy crap! NWS has 131°F forecast in Death Valley At least it's a dry heat. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Here's the longest stretches of 90 degree days or hotter (in a row) since 2010 I compiled. 2021 is definitely an anomaly. 2021: 15 (and counting) 2020: 8 2019: 3 2018: 9 2017: 8 2016: 10 2015: 6 2014: 10 2013: 6 2012: 7 2011: 2 2010: 3 That has to be an all-time record. I looked up some of your historically hot months and there is nothing even close that I have been able to find. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Salem will more than likely reel off 4-6 90+ highs in the next 6 days. Brrrrrrr Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Little did I know that the downpour on the afternoon of June 15th here that I said was ushering in the start of true summer pattern would mean the end of all rainfall. Seems very likely it will be easily a month and probably more without any meaningful rainfall here... could be reminiscent of 2017 when it stopped raining on June 18th and did not really rain again until September 18th. Time will tell... but there is not really any rain in sight right now and it normally rains in my area at times in the summer. I have mentioned before that the first half of the 20th century also featured many very long dry spells in the summer in this area. We’ve had a few month or two dry spells here in the last few years. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 8, 2021 Report Share Posted July 8, 2021 Looks like the next 7 days are forecast to be 90+ at K-Falls. That would run their streak to 22 days. I did look at their hottest month on record (At least for average max), and they did hit 90+ on 18 of 19 days in July 2014. Which is kind of a dead ringer for this month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: We’ve had a few month or two dry spells here in the last few years. Tim acts like it rains all summer here. LOL. I know it's drier down here in the summer, but still. Once we had a record dry spring it was pretty obvious we were screwed. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 SLE at 79 for a high so far today. My guess is they bump to 80 between 5-6p. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim acts like it rains all summer here. LOL. I know it's drier down here in the summer, but still. Once we had a record dry spring it was pretty obvious we were screwed. Yeah…we’ve been talking about how bad it could be in April…here we are now. I’m thankful it hasn’t been as bad up here but it is worrying that just a couple hundred miles south it’s a totally different world. Could be a similar story up this way in 10-20 years if we don’t revert back to a pre 2013 regime. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 73 here…perfect day. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Mesowest says today was 84/37 here in Sunriver. Nowdata tends to show different figures though. Yesterday was apparently 92/45. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim acts like it rains all summer here. LOL. I know it's drier down here in the summer, but still. Once we had a record dry spring it was pretty obvious we were screwed. It literally did rain all summer in 2019. Meaning it never dried out at all... never watered anything that summer and it stayed green. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 It rained here on 10 out of the first 13 days in July 2016 as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It literally did rain all summer in 2019. Meaning it never dried out at all... never watered anything that summer and it stayed green. Right, just like everything is still green where you live. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: I love how people are accusing me of seeing what I want. The same people that said more epic warmth and a record warm summer were a lock a week ago. This is when the GFS was showing SEA would have no days below 80 for the entire period of the run. How did that work out? The point is we really don't know what the rest of the summer will bring. All I've been saying is where we have been means nothing going forward. It's just like cold in the early part of the winter doesn't mean the whole winter is going to be cold. With the atmosphere becoming decidedly Ninaish in the tropics there is no reason to expect we will have another big heat wave. It could happen, but it very well may not. One thing I do have a feeling about is we will probably see cold hit pretty early in the cold season. Second year Ninas are much more likely to bring cold early than first year ones. I’m just going to comment on the 1st paragraph and the first sentence of the second one because the rest I agree with it. And let me be clear that I’m not accusing you of anything. But do you see where the problem lies though Jim with your assessment when it comes to the models? This is what I was alluding to when you posted about the GFS surface temperatures a few days back. I find myself having a hard time getting trusting the GFS regardless of the season we are dealing, but if you are going to discount its surface output and say “we don’t know how the rest of the summer will play out” —- then you should not also spike the football in the wintertime when this same model shows ridiculous cold surface temperatures. Your continuous “HOLY … the GFS gets REAL COLD at the run, I love the chance of it verifying ” or “I have a good feeling going forward to winter because of a cold October” etc…. is kinda opposite with what you’re saying in your post above about how we don’t know how summer will play out. Because to simply put, we don’t know how anything is going to play out. You disappear when the cold don’t work in your favor in the wintertime and kept quiet with the model but is very much to criticizing the model and the people when it’s wrong in the summertime! Dont hype up the cold season then criticize people for predicting a warmer summer then call them out on it. Don’t take it personally with what I said, you do have a great reputation here and I like you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 The pup is now 9 months old. It is actually still pretty green up here despite the severe drought. 5 of the young ducks are now big enough to join the flock. We had a lot of successful breeding this spring, we sold most of the hatchlings last year, but this year we kept most and increased the flock to about 30. 6 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said: I’m just going to comment on the 1st paragraph and the first sentence of the second one because the rest I agree with it. And let me be clear that I’m not accusing you of anything. But do you see where the problem lies though Jim with your assessment when it comes to the models? This is what I was alluding to when you posted about the GFS surface temperatures a few days back. I find myself having a hard time getting trusting the GFS regardless of the season we are dealing, but if you are going to discount its surface output and say “we don’t know how the rest of the summer will play out” —- then you should not also spike the football in the wintertime when this same model shows ridiculous cold surface temperatures. Your continuous “HOLY … the GFS gets REAL COLD at the run, I love the chance of it verifying ” or “I have a good feeling going forward to winter because of a cold October” etc…. is kinda opposite with what you’re saying in your post above about how we don’t know how summer will play out. Because to simply put, we don’t know how anything is going to play out. You disappear when the cold don’t work in your favor in the wintertime and kept quiet with the model but is very much to criticizing the model and the people when it’s wrong in the summertime! Dont hype up the cold season then criticize people for predicting a warmer summer then call them out on it. Don’t take it personally with what I said, you do have a great reputation here and I like you. Assuming I'm not shadowbanned and you can see this I know I sound like an annoying fly but what your saying reminds me of the 'Switch Pro' channels even the ones that 'back up' their claims from cited sources. I have heard no less then 300 times this spring that 'NEW SWITCH PRO LEAK PROVES IT'S CLOSER THEN WE THINK' which turns out to be false advertising. This is how Jim's 'model' forecast turns out like the elusive Switch Pro which will be a new machine by the time we get it rather then a mere 'upgrade to 4K' or whatever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Right, just like everything is still green where you live. Grass is drying out now... but that happens almost every summer. Except 2019. That is just surface moisture. Interestingly... the valley floor here stays amazingly green in the summer. Way more so than up here because we are on the side of a rocky ridge. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That has to be an all-time record. I looked up some of your historically hot months and there is nothing even close that I have been able to find. July 2014 would have been a longer stretch if not for that 81 on the 11th. Most of the month was 90's but at least with that one was mixed with wet t'storms. This one is dry as f***. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Looks like SEA will probably end up with a 73 / 53 today, although I've only seen 72 so far. That would be a -3 departure. The dp is also down a few more degrees vs yesterday. Pretty good in my book. Does that make me crazy? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Juuust a few strikes up near Winthrop. Another place that absolutely does not need any fires. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 50 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said: I’m just going to comment on the 1st paragraph and the first sentence of the second one because the rest I agree with it. And let me be clear that I’m not accusing you of anything. But do you see where the problem lies though Jim with your assessment when it comes to the models? This is what I was alluding to when you posted about the GFS surface temperatures a few days back. I find myself having a hard time getting trusting the GFS regardless of the season we are dealing, but if you are going to discount its surface output and say “we don’t know how the rest of the summer will play out” —- then you should not also spike the football in the wintertime when this same model shows ridiculous cold surface temperatures. Your continuous “HOLY … the GFS gets REAL COLD at the run, I love the chance of it verifying ” or “I have a good feeling going forward to winter because of a cold October” etc…. is kinda opposite with what you’re saying in your post above about how we don’t know how summer will play out. Because to simply put, we don’t know how anything is going to play out. You disappear when the cold don’t work in your favor in the wintertime and kept quiet with the model but is very much to criticizing the model and the people when it’s wrong in the summertime! Dont hype up the cold season then criticize people for predicting a warmer summer then call them out on it. Don’t take it personally with what I said, you do have a great reputation here and I like you. I think we can all agree to not trust the GFS surface output, and I will certainly not spike the football so to speak when it shows great things in the winter if there isn't other stuff to back it up. I think the period you're talking about was February of last winter. While it didn't get as insane as the GFS had been showing the outcome was still quite good. The thing is...all of the models had been showing deeper cold at one point and it kind of fell through in spite of still delivering some good stuff. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 There was a 6.0 south of Carson City today. Looks a little far to have felt anything up to the Oregon border though. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Juuust a few strikes up near Winthrop. Another place that absolutely does not need any fires. Looks like a couple of good storms just right on and north of the Canadian border alright. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like SEA will probably end up with a 73 / 53 today, although I've only seen 72 so far. That would be a -3 departure. The dp is also down a few more degrees vs yesterday. Pretty good in my book. Does that make me crazy? It's not about preferences... its about wishcasting. I am looking forward to sun much earlier in the day for the next 5 or 6 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It's not about preferences... its about wishcasting. I am looking forward to sun much earlier in the day for the next 5 or 6 days. Given what happened last month, I’d think anyone capable of empathy would be hoping for cool/wet weather. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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