July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean Chelan or Couer D'Alene?  That was our destination choices so far this summer.  Both depressing and horrible locations!   We made it to Spokane and Couer D'Alene.  But canceled the trip over the 4th because we did not want to go from 80s back into hotter weather.  

Its just like you escaping to the coast or high elevations when it gets hot.    People like to go where there is weather they enjoy.   You just hate my preferences.    But it has no impact on you. 

I was in Coeur d'Alene on the 4th. It was pretty decent. 95 is pretty tolerable around here. Dewpoints are always low.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, sand dune said:

I was in Coeur d'Alene on the 4th. It was pretty decent. 95 is pretty tolerable around here. Dewpoints are always low.

Yeah... it would not have been bad.    But we had to be here for such a gorgeous holiday weekend at home.   

According to Jesse... anyone who crosses the Cascades in the summer is stupid.   But Chelan and Couer D'Alene are very popular choices for Seattle area residents.   So we are not alone.   

Some seek out warmth in the summer and some seek out cold and cloudy.    Going to the WA coast with 50s and clouds and wind is not my idea of summer fun.   But it is for some people and that is great.    We get enough of that the rest of the year.   I want summer trips to be to warm and sunny places.    That is what summer is all about for us. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF actually moves a ULL in by day 8... moving up in timing.   And actually brings some rain for Randy next Wednesday.

[RentonHill]

20 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Probably not quite as distressing as having to make some last minute reservations in Othello.

hey othello is my jam!! my favorite walmart. For last minute reservations i have to recommend the Quality inn. Because its the only inn. 

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it would not have been bad.    But we had to be here for such a gorgeous holiday weekend at home.   

According to Jesse... anyone who crosses the Cascades in the summer is stupid.   But Chelan and Couer D'Alene are very popular choices for Seattle area residents.   So we are not alone.   

Some seek out warmth in the summer and some seek out cold and cloudy.    Going to the WA coast with 50s and clouds and wind is not my idea of summer fun.   But it is for some people and that is great.    We get enough of that the rest of the year.   I want summer trips to be to warm and sunny places.    That is what summer is all about for us. 

I remember wearing my winter jacket on the 4th in Coeur d'Alene in 1986. This one was far more enjoyable, but it's fine if some people love cool and cloudy, too. 

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

hey othello is my jam!! my favorite walmart. For last minute reservations i have to recommend the Quality inn. Because its the only inn. 

I never miss the sagebrush festival.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... ECMWF is fully on board with a ULL later next week.

 

[TT-SEA]

Still dry on Thursday for most areas... but that set up would have to bring rain eventually.    It still shows mid 70s for Seattle and low 80s down on day 9.   

 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... ECMWF is fully on board with a ULL later next week.

 

D**n it Jim!

 

BC Slider?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

D**n it Jim!

 

BC Slider?

Comes right down the coast.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows a big trough at mid month.  Well below normal temps if it verifies.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

65°F at noon. Running a degree ahead of yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows a big trough at mid month.  Well below normal temps if it verifies.

Maybe not until day 10 though.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

According to Jesse... anyone who crosses the Cascades in the summer is stupid.   But Chelan and Couer D'Alene are very popular choices for Seattle area residents.   So we are not alone.   

I guess I was “stupid” for going to Eastern Oregon to take in the eclipse in 2017, then. Personally I had a great time (and a campsite smack dab in the middle of the center line, at about 4700 feet elevation, above the worst of the summer heat).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Except in very rare circumstances the only way we are going to see meaningful rainfall between mid-July and late August is with southerly flow and convection. A trough could increase the onshore flow and squeeze out some drizzle though. 

We have made all of our plans on the south coast this year. The heatwave had the effect of convincing my Dad he does not want to move to Idaho and is now hoping to retire to Florence or Bandon (Though his wife does not seem 100% on board yet.). 

[Jesse]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I guess I was “stupid” for going to Eastern Oregon to take in the eclipse in 2017, then. Personally I had a great time (and a campsite smack dab in the middle of the center line, at about 4700 feet elevation, above the worst of the summer heat).

We saw the eclipse in Madras that year. Very cool experience.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was fortunate to live right in the path of total darkness during the eclipse. Rented out my spare bedroom on Airbnb for $400 a night. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Except in very rare circumstances the only way we are going to see meaningful rainfall between mid-July and late August is with southerly flow and convection. A trough could increase the onshore flow and squeeze out some drizzle though. 

We have made all of our plans on the south coast this year. The heatwave had the effect of convincing my Dad he does not want to move to Idaho and is now hoping to retire to Florence or Bandon (Though his wife does not seem 100% on board yet.). 

Bandon Dunes is probably the nicest course I’ve ever played.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Temp has shot up to 73 now under fully sunny skies.

Same here... warming up fast.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF does not show the marine layer locking in for the next 10 days... and there is barely any marine layer at all from Friday through Tuesday and then the ULL provides mixing.  The inversion might not be much of a factor going forward.   Although tomorrow morning and Thursday morning should be pretty cloudy until early afternoon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Bandon Dunes is probably the nicest course I’ve ever played.

Fun fact. The owner of Bandon Dunes was a Jeb Bush supporter who had a feud with Trump about whose courses were nicer. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was fortunate to live right in the path of total darkness during the eclipse. Rented out my spare bedroom on Airbnb for $400 a night. 

Was originally going to be in the Breitenbush area, but (a) they closed the resort for the eclipse, and (b) I had worries about the west side getting socked in by a big marine push. So Eastern Oregon it was. Did a lot of research with on-line map and satellite info to find an ideal area, which I then took a fact-finding trip to a month in advance to check out.

Was different to experience the eclipse in a remote area with no crowds and only a few friends. I only realized the latter point later, when I started comparing experiences with others.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was fortunate to live right in the path of total darkness during the eclipse. Rented out my spare bedroom on Airbnb for $400 a night. 

Some hotel rooms in the central valley were selling for $1600 a night with that.  I work in the industry and it was by far the busiest that I've seen the region. 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Except in very rare circumstances the only way we are going to see meaningful rainfall between mid-July and late August is with southerly flow and convection. A trough could increase the onshore flow and squeeze out some drizzle though. 

Yeah... the 12Z EPS does not show much rain from Seattle southward through day 10 despite showing the ULL close by like the ECMWF later next week.

 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fun fact. The owner of Bandon Dunes was a Jeb Bush supporter who had a feud with Trump about whose courses were nicer. 

Low energy Jeb!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the 12Z EPS does not show much rain from Seattle southward through day 10 despite showing the ULL close by like the ECMWF later next week.

 

Rain for Seattle northward and Tiger gets another 90!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Some hotel rooms in the central valley were selling for $1600 a night with that.  I work in the industry and it was by far the busiest that I've seen the region. 

It was pretty wild. I kept seeing people renting rooms or houses up here for over $1,000 a night and wanted to get in on it, but at the same time, I felt bad about charging that much. The family who stayed here were a couple and their son from the Bay area, they thought $400 was a fantastic deal and were very grateful. Ended up hosting on Airbnb for couple years, but with work, kids, and then the pandemic, it just became to much, it was never a huge income stream for us. 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the 12Z EPS does not show much rain from Seattle southward through day 10 despite showing the ULL close by like the ECMWF later next week.

 

Parched areas up in British Columbia may get a small drink.

[TT-SEA]

Another total eclipse coming in 2024... Texas should be the popular spot for that one since its in April and clear weather is more reliable down there at that time of year.  

[TT-SEA]

Up to 75 here now... should easily get to the low 80s.

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Low energy Jeb!!!

It's exhausting just to breathe and have a pulse. I may need a nap after all that activity.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another total eclipse coming in 2024... Texas should be the popular spot for that one since its in April and clear weather is more reliable down there at that time of year.  

Planning on taking all the kids to that one. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another total eclipse coming in 2024... Texas should be the popular spot for that one since its in April and clear weather is more reliable down there at that time of year.  

Not to mention reasonable temperatures.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Planning on taking all the kids to that one. 

We were thinking about going to... but you have to be able to be mobile depending on the weather and that won't be known until about 5 days beforehand.   It's easier when its close to home!  I guess you could just be in Tulsa and go from there. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We were thinking about going to... but you have to be able to be mobile depending on the weather and that won't be known until about 5 days beforehand.   It's easier when its close to home!

Relatively easy to do if you plan on camping.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Relatively easy to do if you plan on camping.

What if there is a big storm and you need to adjust by hundreds of miles?  Indiana could be best... or south Texas... or anywhere in between.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

What if there is a big storm and you need to adjust by hundreds of miles?  Indiana could be best... or south Texas... or anywhere in between.  

I think four or five days is enough time to drive from Texas to Indiana.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS shows the ULL dipping down to the PNW for a few days late next week and then shows the 4CH expanding again and pushing everything back to the north and west. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think four or five days is enough time to drive from Texas to Indiana.

Ahhh... got it.  

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows the ULL dipping down to the PNW for a few days late next week and then shows the 4CH expanding again and pushing everything back to the north and west. 

Summer.