RentonHill Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 12z Euro going a little differently after the weekend. Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, snow drift said: Trough is farther east Reposted that one because my hours were off on the right one, but message is the same. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Reposted that one because my hours were off on the right one, but message is the same. Yep, 12 hrs of difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF says screw that... just keep the rain going. Of course. Hey, it’s fall. So it is what it is. You can’t control it, just like the summer we just went through with all that dry! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Looks like the official low this morning for SEA was 36. Figured that might be the case because the 5 mins obs showed it hit this temp before sunrise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cloud said: Hey, it’s fall. So it is what it is. You can’t control it, just like the summer we just went through with all that dry! I am well aware that we can't control it... but we normally get at least one dry week in October so it's not unreasonable to hope for it. Everyone is here is always hoping for something. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF says screw that... just keep the rain going. Of course. 1 1 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Image saved... that will come in handy! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Image saved... that will come in handy! Jesse would have loved it. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 5 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Just noticed that there is actually some frost on top of the car in driveway. Maybe it was colder before and warming up now. The North Bend station bottomed out this morning at 35.4 degrees. I think it’s colder at your mountaintop estate than at that north bend station. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I am well aware that we can't control it... but we normally get at least one dry week in October so it's not unreasonable to hope for it. Everyone on is here is always hoping for something. We may have possibly used that up the first few days of October. Thinking at this point we won’t have any chance to dry out the rest of this month. At least a prolonged period of dryness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: I think it’s colder at your mountaintop estate than at that north bend station. Shows how little you know about our microclimates. Its often warmer up here on clear nights with radiational cooling than it is down in the valley. In fact... that is the norm. Side note... I don't think being 500 feet higher than SEA and North Bend counts as a "mountaintop". It is often just enough to give us better mixing on clear nights though. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: We may have possibly used that up the first few days of October. Thinking at this point we won’t have any chance to dry out the rest of this month. At least a prolonged period of dryness. I am getting the same feeling... maybe we will get an early spring with a developing Nino. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I am getting the same feeling... maybe we will get an early spring with a developing Nino. We need to enjoy winter first!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: We need to enjoy winter first!! Go ahead! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 hour ago, The Blob said: I knew I should have driven out to Crown Point last night There’s nothing there. Ask Chris. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: We need to enjoy winter first!! So you gonna contribute……. Or………. Many of been wondering. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Here is a little visual for Phil... pulled this picture taken from the Rattlesnake Ledge. My area is marked by the red circle and North Bend is the blue circle area. My area is really just an elevated plateau in the Snoqualmie Valley. Real mountains rise up in all directions around my house. We definitely don't live on a mountaintop. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: So you gonna contribute……. Or………. Many of been wondering. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Here is a little visual for Phil... pulled this picture taken from the Rattlesnake Ledge. My area is marked by the red circle and North Bend is the blue circle area. My area is really just an elevated plateau in the Snoqualmie Valley. Real mountains rise up in all directions around my house. We definitely don't live on a mountaintop. He thinks you live on Mt.Si close enough! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: There’s nothing there. Ask Chris. Ask Chris what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: He thinks you live on Mt.Si Or maybe near the peak of Rainer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Or maybe near the peak of Rainer. Well, we all know that he used to live.... nevermind, not gonna go there 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Shows how little you know about our microclimates. Its often warmer up here on clear nights with radiational cooling than it is down in the valley. In fact... that is the norm. Side note... I don't think being 500 feet higher than SEA and North Bend counts as a "mountaintop". It is often just enough to give us better mixing on clear nights though. “Mountaintop” was tongue in cheek, Dr. Literal. Yes, I know how radiational cooling/cold pooling works. Happens a lot here on the lee side of the appalachians. Sometimes the valleys are 15-20°F cooler than the ridges at sunrise. Still, that doesn’t preclude your location from from being cooler under certain circumstances. Frost (usually) doesn’t develop w/ 35+ degree temps, even under clear/calm conditions. Unless there’s a very, very shallow cold layer in an environment lacking any and all air movement whatsoever. Or perhaps the north bend station is on a rooftop, sitting above the shallow surface inversion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Phil said: “Mountaintop” was tongue in cheek bro. Yes, I know how radiational cooling/cold pooling works. Happens a lot here on the lee side of the appalachians. Sometimes the valleys are 15-20°F cooler than the ridges at sunrise. Still, that doesn’t preclude your location from from being cooler under certain circumstances. Frost (usually) doesn’t develop with 35+ degree temps, even under clear/calm conditions. Unless there’s a very, very shallow cold layer in an environment lacking any and all air movement. In a normal cold season... Olympia has WAY more frosty nights than we do up here. We get way more snow, but my area is quite often one of the warmest spots in the lowlands on clear nights in the winter since there is usually at least some drainage wind providing mixing and often a full on east wind which goes right over places to the west like OLM. SEA has similar characteristics and is prone to wind on clear winter nights (and thus warmer) being up on an elevated plateau. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Here is a little visual for Phil... pulled this picture taken from the Rattlesnake Ledge. My area is marked by the red circle and North Bend is the blue circle area. My area is really just an elevated plateau in the Snoqualmie Valley. Real mountains rise up in all directions around my house. We definitely don't live on a mountaintop. It’s actually really cool you can see your neighborhood from there! Only chance I get to see mine is when I’m on an airplane and try real hard! I live really close to the flight path. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: It’s actually really cool you can see your neighborhood from there! Only chance I get to see mine is when I’m on an airplane and try real hard! I live really close to the flight path. Yes... from the ledge you can definitely see our neighborhood but you have to be in the right spot since most of the view is to the east. Its also easier to make it out during the afternoon when the sun is high. That picture above was taken around dawn so there is lots of shadowing down in the valley. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Looks like the euro cut back the totals for this upcoming week here (as expected) but makes up for it later in the run. Looks like a desert down in Oregon. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Tim certainly gets more snow than us, even though I’m 700’ higher. His higher latitude and most importantly C-zone, give him a major advantage there. Also he does get some seepage through snoqualmie pass. BUT, we definitely have significantly more frost/freezes. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim certainly gets more snow than us, even though I’m 700’ higher. His higher latitude and most importantly C-zone, give him a major advantage there. Also he does get some seepage through snoqualmie pass. BUT, we definitely have significantly more frost/freezes. All true. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: Looks like the euro cut back the totals for this upcoming week here (as expected) but makes up for it later in the run. That’s not bad. We’re at about 1.73” for the month. Which is a lot better than where most of the valley is at. This would put us around 4” by the 22nd, around average. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: That’s not bad. We’re at about 1.73” for the month. Which is a lot better than where most of the valley is at. This would put us around 4” by the 22nd, around average. Coming off last month too things are definitely going the right direction down there. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Got home last night. We had planned to be gone a little longer, but my wife is moving towards the end of the 2nd trimester, so she was feeling it was best to head home given the amount of snow and cold we had already been camping in for a few days. Great trip, we had been gone since the 27th, and actually pretty much been on the road since September 10th. Amazing how much greener things are than when we left. Fall colors should peak up here next week. We ended up with 5.75” of rain in September. Pretty solid, 216% of average. 2nd wettest September since 2011 here, and looking at the long term Silver Falls data, it’s in the top 10 since 1938. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Here is a little visual for Phil... pulled this picture taken from the Rattlesnake Ledge. My area is marked by the red circle and North Bend is the blue circle area. My area is really just an elevated plateau in the Snoqualmie Valley. Real mountains rise up in all directions around my house. We definitely don't live on a mountaintop. That’s not too different. Probably just a slightly better maintained surface inversion at your location. Were you able to figure out precisely where the NB station is sited? I must know. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Can definitely see how that valley might hold onto shallow cold air during WAA, under the right conditions. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s not too different. Probably just a slightly better maintained surface inversion at your location. Were you able to figure out precisely where the NB station is sited? I must know. There are numerous stations in NB. I usually take the average. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Looks like the euro cut back the totals for this upcoming week here (as expected) but makes up for it later in the run. Looks like a desert down in Oregon. Always just 7-10 days out 11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Looks like the euro cut back the totals for this upcoming week here (as expected) but makes up for it later in the run. Looks like a desert down in Oregon. Always 7+ days out. We know the low will end up well west of where it is forecasted by the Euro on this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Can definitely see how that valley might hold onto shallow cold air during WAA, under the right conditions. Definitely... sometimes it can take forever to mix out with weak to even moderate SW flow. 2/12/19 is a great example. It just kept snowing and snowing here while it was raining just to our west... 3+ feet of snow. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Always just 7-10 days out Always 7+ days out. We know the low will end up well west of where it is forecasted by the Euro on this run. You’ve quickly surpassed TWL as biggest weenie status in little time. It’s not even close 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 12, 2021 Report Share Posted October 12, 2021 Still quite early in the seasonal progression, but (IMO) the early indicators aren’t suggestive of a hyper zonal outcome this winter like 2011/12, 1999/00, 1974/75, etc. Doesn’t mean we’ll mirror 1970/71 or 1984/85, but perhaps a the “worst case” won’t come to pass. 3 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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