Anti Marine Layer Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 37 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: I’m going, going back, back to Cali, Cali. A bit further north this time at least. More good stuff for Northern California. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 The models are showing a fascinating situation somewhere around day 9 or 10. There's a GOA low in that time frame the models want to split in half with some energy going westward and some dropping down our way. Depending on how that initial low splits the outcome could be interesting for the PNW. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 I really like this GFS run. It has a classic baroclinic zone with northerly surface pressure gradients over WA and Northern OR and a firehose over southern OR just after day 10. If we can get this type of thing in Dec and Jan things are going to get very fun. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 SEA had a gust to 38 today. They've had some pretty good winds at times over the past several days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Oh boy....850s drop to -6 on this run over SEA with a definite continental flavor. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I really like this GFS run. It has a classic baroclinic zone with northerly surface pressure gradients over WA and Northern OR and a firehose over southern OR just after day 10. If we can get this type of thing in Dec and Jan things are going to get very fun. Sorta off topic, but how often are snow levels around 500 feet in winter? Just moved to an area around 600-700 feet near the foot hills of Enumclaw. I’d imagine we will see more dusting I hope. Hope this helps me in marginal events. I used to live in West Seattle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowChild said: Sorta off topic, but how often are snow levels around 500 feet in winter? Just moved to an area around 600-700 feet near the foot hills of Enumclaw. I’d imagine we will see more dusting I hope. Hope this helps me in marginal events. I used to live in West Seattle. You will do good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 I already told everyone’s family. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowChild said: Sorta off topic, but how often are snow levels around 500 feet in winter? Just moved to an area around 600-700 feet near the foot hills of Enumclaw. I’d imagine we will see more dusting I hope. Hope this helps me in marginal events. I used to live in West Seattle. You'd be surprised how much of a difference it makes in marginal events. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I already told everyone’s family. Lie 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, SnowChild said: Sorta off topic, but how often are snow levels around 500 feet in winter? Just moved to an area around 600-700 feet near the foot hills of Enumclaw. I’d imagine we will see more dusting I hope. Hope this helps me in marginal events. I used to live in West Seattle. With onshore flow or northerly flow situations you should do well. East wind snow events are more moisture starved there than they are even where I live. I would say in a typical winter snow levels get around 500 about a half dozen times, with some more situations being below that. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I already told everyone’s family. Must include Jesse's family. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Solidly cold GFS run. The real wildcard is how that low splits around 9 or so. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The models are showing a fascinating situation somewhere around day 9 or 10. There's a GOA low in that time frame the models want to split in half with some energy going westward and some dropping down our way. Depending on how that initial low splits the outcome could be interesting for the PNW. Yeah. Interesting progression beginning Day 7-8 may lead to retrogression. 00z ECMWF in 15 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, Mr Marine Layer said: Must include Jesse's family. Jesse told me to do it. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 18z was a lot more interesting. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Jesse told me to do it. Send him my warm regards. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 00z GEM Near miss Tuesday 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 18z was a lot more interesting. Nah, anything is better than flat zonal flow. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: With onshore flow or northerly flow situations you should do well. East wind snow events are more moisture starved there than they are even where I live. I would say in a typical winter snow levels get around 500 about a half dozen times, with some more situations being below that. Yea I worry more about the east wind eating my snow. Hope we get cold onshore flow this winter and some genuine arctic fronts. Ideally I’d like to be above 1,000 feet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Conflicting reports!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, SnowChild said: Yea I worry more about the east wind eating my snow. Hope we get cold onshore flow this winter and some genuine arctic fronts. Ideally I’d like to be above 1,000 feet. I remember plenty of times Enumclaw has had more snow than just about anywhere in the Puget Sound region. The flip side of that is the east wind situations. That doesn't apply to situation where the east wind is very light though. In those situation it can be a big help. Just east of where I live the elevation gradually rises right up to the base of the Cascades. Right along the mountains there are some lightly developed communities that range from 800 to 1100 feet. Lots of snow out that way. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Conflicting reports!!! I think the problem is some us have different definitions of what is a good pattern. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think the problem is some us have different definitions of what is a good pattern. Most people like curvy patterns. Some people like them flat. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnowChild said: Yea I worry more about the east wind eating my snow. Hope we get cold onshore flow this winter and some genuine arctic fronts. Ideally I’d like to be above 1,000 feet. You’ve got a good shot at snow. Much better than near the sound or below 500’. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Most people like curvy patterns. Andrew likes them flat. Yup. The 0z GFS gets pretty curvy. Actually two different kinds of cold patterns on this run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Think the rains mostly wrapped up for the day. 1.53” so far this month. Pretty close to the final total of 1.83” in November 2019! Man that month was insanely dry compared to normal. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Think the rains mostly wrapped up for the day. 1.53” so far this month. Pretty close to the final total of 1.83” in November 2019! Man that month was insanely dry compared to normal. No doubt it was a soggy one late yesterday through today. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Pretty much all good analogs today. Amazingly 1970 is still there. Been there for at least a month straight now. Weatherbell released their December outlook and it shows kind of a classic profile with strong cold anomalies east of the Rockies and a sharp N to S gradient in the West. Sloping from below normal over WA to well above normal over CA. Those situations can be good snow makers for mostly the northern half of WA. When I last checked they hadn't updated the entire winter outlook yet. Probably waiting for the ECMWF seasonal update. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 00z Euro is not backing down on lowland snow late this weekend, really thought it would come back to reality. Nope. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 NWS guy on the right (who loves snow): The Euro is showing lowland snow in a few days! Rest of the NWS night crew: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Looks like Euro is not backing down with the lowland snow. A dusting here and 1" south sound. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: Looks like Euro is not backing down with the lowland snow. A dusting here and 1" south sound. 3-4"+ still showing for here, it looks impossible given the evolution and setup the next couple days. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 I don't even see temps that support it... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 It’s coming… 3 3 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: I don't even see temps that support it... Me neither. You just beat me to it. Nothing even close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I don't even see temps that support it... Dashing our hopes with Euro temp maps is usually Tims job! 1 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Me neither. You just beat me to it. Nothing even close. I don't think I have ever seen the Euro show something like this, very strange. Maybe 41° snow in November is the flip side of late June 2021.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: I don't think I have ever seen the Euro show something like this, very strange. Maybe 41° snow is the winter version of late June 2021.... Just need a bit colder air mass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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