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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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The models are showing a fascinating situation somewhere around day 9 or 10.  There's a GOA low in that time frame the models want to split in half with some energy going westward and some dropping down our way.  Depending on how that initial low splits the outcome could be interesting for the PNW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I really like this GFS run.  It has a classic baroclinic zone with northerly surface pressure gradients over WA and Northern OR and a firehose over southern OR just after day 10.  If we can get this type of thing in Dec and Jan things are going to get very fun.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SEA had a gust to 38 today.  They've had some pretty good winds at times over the past several days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Oh boy....850s drop to -6 on this run over SEA with a definite continental flavor.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I really like this GFS run.  It has a classic baroclinic zone with northerly surface pressure gradients over WA and Northern OR and a firehose over southern OR just after day 10.  If we can get this type of thing in Dec and Jan things are going to get very fun.

Sorta off topic, but how often are snow levels around 500 feet in winter?

Just moved to an area around 600-700 feet near the foot hills of Enumclaw. I’d imagine we will see more dusting I hope. Hope this helps me in marginal events. 😁
 

I used to live in West Seattle. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Sorta off topic, but how often are snow levels around 500 feet in winter?

Just moved to an area around 600-700 feet near the foot hills of Enumclaw. I’d imagine we will see more dusting I hope. Hope this helps me in marginal events. 😁
 

I used to live in West Seattle. 

You will do good.

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9 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Sorta off topic, but how often are snow levels around 500 feet in winter?

Just moved to an area around 600-700 feet near the foot hills of Enumclaw. I’d imagine we will see more dusting I hope. Hope this helps me in marginal events. 😁
 

I used to live in West Seattle. 

You'd be surprised how much of a difference it makes in marginal events. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Sorta off topic, but how often are snow levels around 500 feet in winter?

Just moved to an area around 600-700 feet near the foot hills of Enumclaw. I’d imagine we will see more dusting I hope. Hope this helps me in marginal events. 😁
 

I used to live in West Seattle. 

With onshore flow or northerly flow situations you should do well.  East wind snow events are more moisture starved there than they are even where  I live.

I would say in a typical winter snow levels get around 500 about a half dozen times, with some more situations being below that.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Solidly cold GFS run.  The real wildcard is how that low splits around 9 or so.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are showing a fascinating situation somewhere around day 9 or 10.  There's a GOA low in that time frame the models want to split in half with some energy going westward and some dropping down our way.  Depending on how that initial low splits the outcome could be interesting for the PNW.

Yeah. Interesting progression beginning Day 7-8 may lead to retrogression.

00z ECMWF in 15 minutes

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18z was a lot more interesting. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Jesse told me to do it.

Send him my warm regards. 

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z was a lot more interesting. 

Nah, anything is better than flat zonal flow. 💤 

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With onshore flow or northerly flow situations you should do well.  East wind snow events are more moisture starved there than they are even where  I live.

I would say in a typical winter snow levels get around 500 about a half dozen times, with some more situations being below that.

Yea I worry more about the east wind eating my snow. Hope we get cold onshore flow this winter and some genuine arctic fronts.

Ideally I’d like to be above 1,000 feet. 

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10 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Yea I worry more about the east wind eating my snow. Hope we get cold onshore flow this winter and some genuine arctic fronts.

Ideally I’d like to be above 1,000 feet. 

I remember plenty of times Enumclaw has had more snow than just about anywhere in the Puget Sound region.  The flip side of that is the east wind situations.  That doesn't apply to situation where the east wind is very light though.  In those situation it can be a big help.

Just east of where I live the elevation gradually rises right up to the base of the Cascades.  Right along the mountains there are some lightly developed communities that range from 800 to 1100 feet.  Lots of snow out that way.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Conflicting reports!!!

I think the problem is some us have different definitions of what is a good pattern.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the problem is some us have different definitions of what is a good pattern.

Most people like curvy patterns. Some people like them flat.

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11 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

Yea I worry more about the east wind eating my snow. Hope we get cold onshore flow this winter and some genuine arctic fronts.

Ideally I’d like to be above 1,000 feet. 

You’ve got a good shot at snow. Much better than near the sound or below 500’. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Most people like curvy patterns. Andrew likes them flat.

Yup.  The 0z GFS gets pretty curvy.  Actually two different kinds of cold patterns on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Think the rains mostly wrapped up for the day. 1.53” so far this month. Pretty close to the final total of 1.83” in November 2019! Man that month was insanely dry compared to normal. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Think the rains mostly wrapped up for the day. 1.53” so far this month. Pretty close to the final total of 1.83” in November 2019! Man that month was insanely dry compared to normal. 

No doubt it was a soggy one late yesterday through today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty much all good analogs today.  Amazingly 1970 is still there.  Been there for at least a month straight now.

Weatherbell released their December outlook and it shows kind of a classic profile with strong cold anomalies east of the Rockies and a sharp N to S gradient in the West.  Sloping from below normal over WA to well above normal over CA.  Those situations can be good snow makers for mostly the northern half of WA.

When I last checked they hadn't updated the entire winter outlook yet.  Probably waiting for the ECMWF seasonal update.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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AD23B620-182E-45E4-98A5-3CE561D54E1E.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't even see temps that support it...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-t2m_f-1636070400-1636070400-1636534800-10.gif

Dashing our hopes with Euro temp maps is usually Tims job! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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