PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Models took a pretty significant change this morning for late next week...Ridge looks to breakdown a lot quicker.

That type pattern tends to break down and recycle more often than not. Guidance doesn’t always pick up on that at-range.

Also question is which wave will be the one to amplify/break to establish AL/+PNA episode. Somewhere it that mid-November timeframe (maybe 15th-20th?) seems most likely to me. But suppose it could happen sooner.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That type pattern tends to break down and recycle more often than not. Guidance doesn’t always pick up on that at-range.

Also question is which wave will be the one to amplify/break to establish AL/+PNA episode. Somewhere it that mid-November timeframe (maybe 15th-20th?) seems most likely to me.

AL went on vacation this year. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I could see you possibly seeing some snow mixing in under a heavy shower late Saturday in to Sunday morning.

Possibly.   Does not seem like an accumulating snow scenario for here but who knows?

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Possibly.   Does not seem like an accumulating snow scenario for here but who knows?

It definitely doesn't for here for sure, but all bets are off this year, so, ya....

[Kayla]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is almost identical to its 00Z run for late next week.  

12z GFS looks a whole lot different at day 10 and the Euro is showing things breaking down at day 10.

Just yesterday the models were showing a pretty massive ridge right on through mid month. This morning not so much. Could also just be model noise.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The airmass Sunday morning gets very close to supporting snow here, but probably not... Wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes though. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

When is Tim going to California or Hawaii?

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The airmass Sunday morning gets very close to supporting snow here, but probably not... Wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes though. 

That would be exciting. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z GFS looks a whole lot different at day 10 and the Euro is showing things breaking down at day 10.

Just yesterday the models were showing a pretty massive ridge right on through mid month. This morning not so much. Could also just be model noise.

12Z EPS looks similar to previous runs...

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

When is Tim going to California or Hawaii?

December... to Hawaii.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

When is Tim going to California or Hawaii?

You want me to ask him for you?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim is going to be so busy posting from Hawaii, he is going to see about as much of the state as someone with a Hawaiian beach background in a Zoom meeting. 

[Cloud]

Chris’ 11/21 is starting to come into view. Go big or bust. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim is going to be so busy posting from Hawaii, he is going to see about as much of the state as someone with a Hawaiian beach background in a Zoom meeting. 

You are in a fun mood today!   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Chris’ 11/21 is starting to come into view. Go big or bust. 

He should have said 11/7.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You are in a fun mood today!   

Admit it. You laughed. 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He should have said 11/7.    

I would be happy to see snow this weekend and bust my forecasted start of fun, but it isn't gonna happen this weekend so 11/21 is in play.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim is going to be so busy posting from Hawaii, he is going to see about as much of the state as someone with a Hawaiian beach background in a Zoom meeting. 

Already have the north bend cam ready at the disposal prior to landing! 

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You are in a fun mood today!   

He's not entirely wrong.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Already have the north bend cam ready at the disposal prior to landing! 

@TT-SEA can we have a party at your house while you are gone? 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

@TT-SEA can we have a party at your house while you are gone? 

Yes!   I will PM you the key box code.  

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes!   I will PM you the key box code.  

Thanks. I already have you address so this is all i need. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

He's not entirely wrong.

I plan to stay inside the room every day.    No sun for me.  

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I plan to stay inside the room every day.    No sun for me.  

We know.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z EPS is definitely not dry despite showing ridging... 

 

[Deweydog]

Jesse would have really enjoyed this phun banter.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro still showing some snow in the air for some lowland locations this weekend.

Actually shows me being in the dark blue but thinking that is resolution issues. 

Be Bold like MossMan and call it like it is…..”Your in the Blue!” 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I would be happy to see snow this weekend and bust my forecasted start of fun, but it isn't gonna happen this weekend so 11/21 is in play.

So 11/21 is the prediction for the first snowflakes or accumulating snow?

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS is definitely not dry despite showing ridging... 

 

Dirty Sanchez (Ridge)

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Jesse would have really enjoyed this phun banter.

How could you possibly be such a dickhead when there is probably a fire somewhere? Grow up and quit being so selfish. 

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS looks similar to previous runs...

 

Shortwaves also get smoothed in ensemble means so transient waves cut through the ridge with it redeveloping afterwards.

But yes the tendency should towards more ridging with time, eventually becoming quite amplified mid/late month, followed by a retrograde sometime in early/mid December.    

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS is definitely not dry despite showing ridging... 

 

Hard to be dry when the raging pacjet is aiming right at us. 

[Phil]

One month from now we could actually have the inverse of current NPAC pattern. Dead NPAC jet, GOA high.

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS is definitely not dry despite showing ridging... 

 

Big brown skid mark right over the Sierra  

At least the Mt Biking has been good since the snow melted. Might as keep pedaling until Thanksgiving. Hopefully a turn to cold and snowy after that. 

[Cloud]

3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Drought situation is improved even more now. 

OR is getting much needed AR on the 12z GFS at day 10. Can have it, we don’t really need that anymore up here. 

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Drought situation is improved even more now. 

I’m in the red!

[RentonHill]

It’s fuggin nasty out

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I’m in the red!

We’ve been in the red for most of the last 2 years.

[TacomaWaWx]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

OR is getting much needed AR on the 12z GFS at day 10. Can have it, we don’t really need that anymore up here. 

Yeah I’d rather see some jet suppression down into Oregon and California. We’re doing just fine here now after back to back wetter than normal months. However we will probably keep getting lots of rain here anyways. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s fuggin nasty out

Yeah it’s pretty rainy here too. Me thinks this month will be wetter than normal too.