PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s fuggin nasty out

Got swiped with the cells moving through. Quite windy and rainy. Then poof… calm. Moving quite fast.

[GHweatherChris]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So 11/21 is the prediction for the first snowflakes or accumulating snow?

Just the start of a fun period, doesn't even have to snow that day particularly, could be the day that the transition begins.

[Cloud]

Now over 1” for the month….. and we’re only 3.5 days in. 

[Kayla]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

Shortwaves also get smoothed in ensemble means so transient waves cut through the ridge with it redeveloping afterwards.

But yes the tendency should towards more ridging with time, eventually becoming quite amplified mid/late month, followed by a retrograde sometime in early/mid December.    

Sooo late November to early December, got it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like 1/2" of rain on the day now. Temp down to 48. 

Didn't Phil say we would enjoy some cool pleasant late June troughing? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Heavy rain🌧🌧🌧

[Omegaraptor]

Pressure going back up. Peak gust of 26 at CVO. Another wind advisory nothingburger (the vast majority of them are) but most of the leaves have fallen now.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, dolt said:

How could you possibly be such a dickhead when there is probably a fire somewhere? Grow up and quit being so selfish. 

I’ve always found it best to keep a firm grip on your dickheadedness.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 0.70" now. 

[BLI snowman]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like 1/2" of rain on the day now. Temp down to 48. 

Didn't Phil say we would enjoy some cool pleasant late June troughing? 

Summer 2021 is gonna drive Tim crazy!!

[TacomaWaWx]

18 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Unimpressive rain so far this week, 0.72” for the day and 1.33” for the month. Or at least, it seems tame in comparison to last week’s deluge. It is still beautiful out though, and my 1-year old is honing her puddle-stomping skills. 

Wow I think I’ve had more rain than you so far this month. We’re at 1.44” currently but I’m sure you’ll end up with close to double my total by the end of the month. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just got the iPhone 13! Excited to get some better quality photos now. Big upgrade from my old iPhone 8. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wow I think I’ve had more rain than you so far this month. We’re at 1.44” currently but I’m sure you’ll end up with close to double my total by the end of the month. 

As mentioned... offshore flow earlier this week is quite dry out here.   Randy had over 10 times as much rain as we did one of those days.   Offshore flow is gone now and the rain is absolutely pounding on the roof right now.  

[MossMan]

Was pouring all the way from Stanwood to about 1 mile west of Skykomish. Was just a few sprinkles happening there. 

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As mentioned... offshore flow earlier this week is quite dry out here.   Randy had over 10 times as much rain as we did one of those days.   Offshore flow is gone now and the rain is absolutely pounding on the roof right now.  

Lol yeah I remember you mentioning it since you like your “torturous” offshore flow. 

[TT-SEA]

It is absolutely roaring out there... looks like a hurricane with branches and leaves flying by the window.     I suspect this is the cold air mass moving inland.  

[TacomaWaWx]

We spiked up to 58 earlier now down to 54 so I’m guessing we’ve maxed out for the day. 

[RentonHill]

 

GFS to upcoming "windstorm" that Euro and NAM are showing

[Christensen87]

Tuesday storm heading into CA again, my neck hurts with all this whiplash. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

It just transitioned to absolutely pouring down here in town, so I won’t be surprised if we have passed you by already: 1.49” now for month. 

 

I recently upgraded from an iPhone 6 to iPhone 11 Pro Max, and it’s a world of difference to feel like you’re actually capturing what you’re seeing. I’m sure your new phone will come in handy during the Great South Sound Freeze of January 2022. 

The iPhone 8 camera was decent but really glad to have upgraded. Going to try and get some sunrise/sunset photos when we finally get some clear weather. Will really need it for all the snow photos coming this winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. No run to run consistency from the GFS. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. No run to run consistency from the GFS. 

All those upgrades have made it overthink past day 3.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. No run to run consistency from the GFS. 

 

[Cloud]

It is absolutely howling out there.... we just had a peak gust of 40mph. 

[Cloud]

6z and 18z seems to be the runs that goes together in tandem in at least wanting to drive the Tuesday storm into NorCal. Other than that, it's completely off the rail even in the mid-long range. 

[TacomaWaWx]

16 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It is absolutely howling out there.... we just had a peak gust of 40mph. 

Biggest gust here so far was about 30mph but it’s fairly calm right now. Getting close to a half inch of rain today though. 

[MossMan]

Zero wind here. Just wet. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Zero wind here. Just wet. 

Same here, only the rain has pretty much stopped.  .39" for the day.  It was rather windy for a bit this morning but has been pretty quiet this afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z actually ends up wetter than the 12z.

[Dave]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z actually ends up wetter than the 12z.

Hmm. 6.8". That is definitely way above average. I'm pretty sure the average should be about 5".

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It is absolutely roaring out there... looks like a hurricane with branches and leaves flying by the window.     I suspect this is the cold air mass moving inland.  

Took down a huge tree blocking one of our main roads (320th) here in Federal away…luckily no cars involved!  Leaves were dancing as well…..fun!

Also just finished a very wet walk along the Sound with water going over the roadway with the high tide. 

[seattleweatherguy]

3 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

 

 

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Zero wind here. Just wet. 

Got some gusty winds off and on here

[MossMan]

Major dumpage! I feel like we are approaching 2” on the day but will take a look at my gauge when I get home. 

[Blizzard777]

Wind gusting to 35 here and 52*

I was almost in the rain shadow today….it brushed my area several times.  Still managed .56 in the bucket 

 

 

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

6z and 18z seems to be the runs that goes together in tandem in at least wanting to drive the Tuesday storm into NorCal. Other than that, it's completely off the rail even in the mid-long range. 

I bet we would be able to go back and find a long run 7-10 day out run that ends up being pretty close. Then intermediate - near term range it just behaves like an ensemble member. It feels like the euro has a smoothed average type of feel where it can only deviate so much run to run even if inputs have changed 

[MossMan]

1.60” on the day, 3.39” for the month. 
48 degrees. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Quite the scene on Bellingham Bay right now

 

https://faithlife.com/webcam

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Was pouring all the way from Stanwood to about 1 mile west of Skykomish. Was just a few sprinkles happening there. 

Great shot. Goes to show that the endless gray can still be beautiful. 

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The iPhone 8 camera was decent but really glad to have upgraded. Going to try and get some sunrise/sunset photos when we finally get some clear weather. Will really need it for all the snow photos coming this winter. 

Show me the dendrites!

[Front Ranger]

Digging the model trends today.