PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

This could be a great December coming up! Wonder why the CPC is calling for warmer than average in the 8-14 day range. 

This model change was just kind of in it's infancy when they were making the forecast.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This model change was just kind of in it's infancy when they were making the forecast.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It's good for all of our tropical plants.

imma gunna start growing bananas, after all this is the banana belt up here

[snow_wizard]

Oops.  Looks like I was looking at the 12z on that south tracking low.  Still a lot of cold on this run.  Very favorable surface gradients to really allow the cold to settle in.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone looking for snowy scene to get in the mood... tune into ABC right now.    Its snowing hard at Michigan State.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice 18z run and good improvements when looking at Day 5-7 trends. Ridge over us backs off to the west several notches from previous runs. Aleutian ridge also a few notches east of previous runs. Energy cuts off better further southwest into Kona low. Hmmm!

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The earlier runs had that huge cold blast in the east while we ended up with a huge ridge over us.  Not sure what was so mysterious about that post.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Nice 18z run and good improvements when looking at Day 5-7 trends. Ridge over us backs off to the west several notches from previous runs. Aleutian ridge also a few notches east of previous runs. Energy cuts off better further southwest into Kona low. Hmmm!

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

If this doesn't get people excited nothing will.

[snow_wizard]

I hope the GFS is correct about the pattern staying so amplified into the longer range.  Looks great on this run and the 12z as well.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The earlier runs had that huge cold blast in the east while we ended up with a huge ridge over us.  Not sure what was so mysterious about that post.

That was yesterday.

[snow drift]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Yeah they do get a decent amount of rainfall (totals wise) with no orographic lifting to speak of.  lots of convection, more of a stratiform rain in the cooler months, but still some convection.

I do miss thunderstorms, that is where weather is boring out here (summers)

I prefer summers here. Summer rain is cold up here. Down there it was warm.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If this doesn't get people excited nothing will.

Right? That's what I'm here for. Yeah. Long range features a blockfest in the Gulf of Alaska ripe with potential.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the mother lode heading our way at the end of the run.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That was yesterday.

I just looked and you are pretty much correct.  I guess I should have said it's just today the models have really settled on a chilly outcome for us during the period in question.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Right? That's what I'm here for. Yeah. Long range features a blockfest in the Gulf of Alaska ripe with potential.

Even the appetizer stuff early on is going to make things feel pretty wintry around here.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 7 (Past 4 runs) The opposite of 'Devastating Trends' (c)Deweydog 2021

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I prefer summers here. Summer rain is cold up here. Down there it was warm.

I like the lack of humidity of summer here, but not to the point that a shock myself putting on socks and then touching a door knob, in summer.  back east that only happened in the dead of winter

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I just looked and you are pretty much correct.  I guess I should have said it's just today the models have really settled on a chilly outcome for us during the period in question.

What period is that?    The EPS is not really cold in any period over the next 2 weeks... so I don't think the models have settled much yet.   EPS needs to be on board.

[snow_wizard]

Incoming late the run!

[snow drift]

The druncle is throwing us a bone. He's been drinking again. I want to see what the 00z model suites show.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 8 not so much.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I like the lack of humidity of summer here, but not to the point that a shock myself putting on socks and then touching a door knob, in summer.  back east that only happened in the dead of winter

Bone dry and sunny, I probably like it, because I grew up here.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What period is that?    The EPS is not really cold in any period over the next 2 weeks... so I don't think the models have settled much yet.   EPS needs to be on board.

Late next week.  That is looking pretty solid.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

The druncle is throwing us a bone. He's been drinking again. I want to see what the 00z model suites show.

12z was great too.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GEFS Day 8 not so much.

Pretty good placement on the low near Hawaii though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very nice outlier run.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Late this week.  That is looking pretty solid.

I guess... this is the coldest point on the EPS in that period.   Warm air is pretty close and those maps are pretty close in agreement.

[T-Town]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very few places can beat us for mild gloom though... we do that very well.  

 

[awright31]

Can we un-cancel winter now??   

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty good placement on the low near Hawaii though.

Oh yeah absolutely it is. Looking for fun 00z runs tonight.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very nice outlier run.

The 12z was good too.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I like donut holes!

[ShawniganLake]

Rain has been ramping up this afternoon. 0.65” so far. ️ 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56F with off and on rain.

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just looked and you are pretty much correct.  I guess I should have said it's just today the models have really settled on a chilly outcome for us during the period in question.

We’re still in false start mode. Nothing is even close to settled.

Don't push it. It’s coming. If you push too hard it will fly away.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, van city said:

Going East guys. Winter cancel.

More like going north. Probably. Baffin Island and Fairbanks are gonna score YUGE.

BTW, that is a Canadian warming. Not really a major precursor to SSW/-NAM by itself.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, austinwright31 said:

Can we un-cancel winter now??   

Phillip says nope. 
I say yep! 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I guess... this is the coldest point on the EPS in that period.   Warm air is pretty close and those maps are pretty close in agreement.

Gfs ensemble bottoms out right around normal.  Solid cold shot for the 21st century standards

[van city]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

More like going north. Probably. Baffin Island and Fairbanks are gonna score YUGE.

BTW, that is a Canadian warming. Not really a major precursor to SSW/-NAM by itself.

Big Joe disagree. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phillip says nope. 
I say yep! 

I only have one L in my name. Get it right.