PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, van city said:

Big Joe disagree. 

JB is an eastern cold/snow weenie. I don’t see much potential out here either.

[MossMan]

I’m giving Phil the Wiener for every post he makes until I get at least 3” of snow at my house. It’s his punishment for bringing up 1999 last night. 

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’re still in false start mode. Nothing is even close to settled.

Don't push it. It’s coming. If you push too hard it will fly away.

[Anti Marine Layer]

31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

56F with off and on rain.

Ditto

[snow_wizard]

Hopefully we'll see more ensemble agreement in the next few runs.  There were some members that were cold on this run.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

More like going north. Probably. Baffin Island and Fairbanks are gonna score YUGE.

BTW, that is a Canadian warming. Not really a major precursor to SSW/-NAM by itself.

I think we should give you the Debbie Downer award for this month.

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m giving Phil the Wiener for every posts he makes until I get at least 3” of snow at my house. It’s his punishment for bringing up 1999 last night. 

Thankfully 1999 has barely shown up at all on the CPC analogs this fall.  Probably the only worse La Nina winter was 1933-34.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Ditto

Do you still live in CA?  Didn't know it was raining down there.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Do you still live in CA?  Didn't know it was raining down there.

It absolutely is not raining down there.   Or anywhere from Eugene southward.   And the ridge down there just endlessly pumps rain into western WA.

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

JB is an eastern cold/snow weenie. I don’t see much potential out here either.

I have to give you credit for sticking to your guns.  It's like you and I are as sure as we've ever been.  One has to be wrong.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It absolutely is not raining down there.   Or anywhere from Eugene southward.   And the ridge down just endlessly pumps rain into western WA.

Rather unfortunate for everyone.

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gfs ensemble bottoms out right around normal.  Solid cold shot for the 21st century standards

I think you need to look at that again.   Unless you meant GEFS.

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we should give you the Debbie Downer award for this month.

I thought Mr. Shirley handed those out

[Gradient Keeper]

Yikes

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Do you still live in CA?  Didn't know it was raining down there.

He said the same thing yesterday. 

It's bone dry in California. This morning's low was 39 F, but during the day it's near 80 F.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yikes

I guess we might as well go for all time wettest since we've come this far.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.40” since midnight here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem had like 8’days with sticking snow in 67-68, including an 8” event in January. We could do worse. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem had like 8’days with sticking snow in 67-68, including an 8” event in January. We could do worse. 

That one was ok.  I guess the epic torch in February is why I'm not wild about it.  Dec and Jan were decent.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.40” since midnight here. 

It's just pouring here.  I'll have to go check the gauge soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That one was ok.  I guess the epic torch in February is why I'm not wild about it.  Dec and Jan were decent.

After how February has been treating us...

I just want a throwback January.

[snow_wizard]

It is kind of interesting that every one of the top 8 wettest Novembers in the Puget Sound lowlands had a worthwhile winter.

2006, 1909, 1990, 1995, 1932, 1998, 1983, 1896.

Most of them had noteworthy cold and or snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp: 58.1 , off/on rain, increasing southerly wind

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After how February has been treating us...

I just want a throwback January.

Yeah...It's not like we're due for a cold Feb anyway.

[snow_wizard]

Rain shadow south of its normal location again.  Another typical sign before a cold wave.

[TacomaWaWx]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's just pouring here.  I'll have to go check the gauge soon.

0.43” here now…was a miserable day to be working outside glad to be home and out of soaking wet clothes. 

[FroYoBro]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Rain shadow south of its normal location again.  Another typical sign before a cold wave.

I pooped 6 times today. That ties my record from November 2008. Hmmmmm. 

[Phishy Wx]

43 with a Rain shower

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the southern edge of the precip, but 0.34” today. 

[Slushy Inch]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Rain shadow south of its normal location again.  Another typical sign before a cold wave.

Really?

[ShawniganLake]

42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think you need to look at that again.   Unless you meant GEFS.

You quoted my post and it says “GFS Ensemble”. Which is the GEFS.

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I pooped 6 times today. That ties my record from November 2008. Hmmmmm. 

[ShawniganLake]

The city of Coquitlam is up to 1.12” so far today. Nearly 22” on the month

[snow drift]

16 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I pooped 6 times today. That ties my record from November 2008. Hmmmmm. 

Bingo

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Anal logs. 

[Gradient Keeper]

21 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I pooped 6 times today. That ties my record from November 2008. Hmmmmm. 

[Gradient Keeper]

We could be seeing a trend starting at Day 4 to handle the energy/kona low more favorably and to edge the ridge over us a bit more offshore allowing for modest ridge merger. If I am correct we will see improved/colder model runs ahead with increasing ensemble support as well.

00z GFS in 2 hours 21 minutes
00z ECMWF in 4 hours 31 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F and cloudy for now. Occasional showers.

[Deweydog]

37 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I pooped 6 times today. That ties my record from November 2008. Hmmmmm. 

You have over six and a half hours to break it. C’MON!!!

[Skagit Weather]

It looks like Quillayute's rain gauge may be malfunctioning as it has only picked up about 0.4" today while Forks is at 1.5". Kind of a shame because it may have had a chance to be the wettest month in the station's history. Currently it's 9th and has about 5" to go.