PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Snownerd3000]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Holy +AO hell... Difficult to sustain such prolific, widespread midlatitude ridging. Positive height anomalies between 30-60°N at nearly all longitudes. Not even Fairbanks is scoring cold. Only Siberia and Baffin Island. Maybe extreme NNE US.

As I said, hell.

Looks like it's trying to go negative

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the AR is beginning its shift south. 

[TacomaWaWx]

9.49” of rain so far this month…made it to 60 degrees here around midnight 58 now. Should be on our way to 10” for the month at some point today. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

9.49” of rain so far this month…made it to 60 degrees here around midnight 58 now. Should be on our way to 10” for the month at some point today. 

Subtropical 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Western WA was one of the warmest places in the entire country overnight... 

Literally Miami.  

[Skagit Weather]

As of the end of yesterday, this November is now Bellingham's all time wettest month.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

As of the end of yesterday, this November is now Bellingham's all time wettest month.

Not too surprising…sea tac has a good shot at getting in the top 3 all time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

As of the end of yesterday, this November is now Bellingham's all time wettest month.

Pretty interesting. Also interesting how much 1990 keeps coming up lately.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty interesting. Also interesting how much 1990 keeps coming up lately.

Jim will love it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is cooler for the weekend, brings the cool air further south and then.... 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z is cooler for the weekend, brings the cool air further south and then.... 

Quite a L

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z is cooler for the weekend, brings the cool air further south and then.... 

Only reason it’s happening is cuz the skagit river flooded  looks pretty cool we will see if it’s there on the next run or not. 

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z is cooler for the weekend, brings the cool air further south and then.... 

Beast mode.

[TT-SEA]

Well this will get people talking this morning... and its within 10 days.

 

 

[Snownerd3000]

Huge precip rates on the N side. Can't draw up a better location for W WA either. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Need to trend that thing further south. But seriously... That low has shown up on quite a few model runs the past few days, just with wildly different locations. But definitely something to watch, and if we could pull it off the catalyst for a much cooler pattern. 

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this will get people talking this morning... and its within 10 days.

 

 

Tiger should be showing up with a sad comment in 3 2 1….

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ICON is very similar to the GFS except slightly cooler. It digs the cold air in a little further south over the weekend, and it cuts off at hour 180, but looks like that next low is tracking more towards the SE than straight E. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

Tiger should be showing up with a sad comment in 3 2 1….

Unfortunately the laws of physics prevent anyone south of the 45th parallel from getting a good snow event. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Need to trend that thing further south. But seriously... That low has shown up on quite a few model runs the past few days, just with wildly different locations. But definitely something to watch, and if we could pull it off the catalyst for a much cooler pattern. 

We all know that lows end up a few hundred miles north of where they are originally forecasted. No chance for Oregon. 

[Esquimalt]

Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

We all know that lows end up a few hundred miles north of where they are originally forecasted. No chance for Oregon. 

I like my odds up here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this will get people talking this morning... and its within 10 days.

 

 

Looks like something out of February 2019 or 2021. Only problem is it’s the gfs! 

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS is turning into a comically snowy run for the Seattle area.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

We all know that lows end up a few hundred miles north of where they are originally forecasted. No chance for Oregon. 

That low just before Thanksgiving 2019 trended way south. 

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Need to trend that thing further south. But seriously... That low has shown up on quite a few model runs the past few days, just with wildly different locations. But definitely something to watch, and if we could pull it off the catalyst for a much cooler pattern. 

Trend north !!! C’mon.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The important thing is we start building snow pack in the mountains. That happens on this run.

[Phil]

The little bowling ball that could.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That low just before Thanksgiving 2019 trended way south. 

2-25-19 didn’t happen either. 

[smerfylicious]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS is turning into a comically snowy run for the Seattle area.  

 

Sure, I'll take 1.5 feet of snow I guess.

Good consolation prize after the runs gave up on the 6z run of dreams from 2 days ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty chilly maritime trough the end of next week. That feature has been showing up on a lot of runs too.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

The little bowling ball that could.

Though obv it’s for entertainment purposes only. How the whole thing evolves is wacky, and there’s no arctic air anywhere remotely close to the region, not much in the way of baroclinicity.

[FroYoBro]

Just now, Phil said:

Obv it’s entertainment purposes only. How the whole thing evolves is wacky, and there’s no arctic air anywhere remotely close to the region, not much in the way of baroclinicity.

We don’t need arctic air to get snow in December. But yeah, way too far out and too many details are necessary to know anything yet. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Though obv it’s for entertainment purposes only. How the whole thing evolves is wacky, and there’s no arctic air anywhere remotely close to the region, not much in the way of baroclinicity.

In December we don’t need arctic air to get snow in the PNW. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall a great change from this 6 week+ blowtorch, but the ridge is to flat and west for us to get arctic air in this pattern. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SnowChild said:

In December we don’t need arctic air to get snow in the PNW. 

Sure, but that kind of low almost always develops along a baroclinic gradient associated w/ an arctic airmass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Sure, but that kind of low almost always develops along a baroclinic gradient associated w/ an arctic airmass.

Not really... The low that developed in November 2019 was pretty similar. 

[Phil]

This run actually develops a Scandinavian ridge/-NAO tendency, so more of the TPV is closer to western Canada (as opposed to the eastern Arctic).

Too bad it’s the GFS. But if that happens I’ll be less pessimistic.

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really... The low that developed in November 2019 was pretty similar. 

IIRC there was a nearby Arctic airmass in November 2019. Just north of the border.

I’ll look again though.

[AquariusRadar]

Multiple aquariusradars stationed around Abbottsford and east towards the drainage of the Okanogan and Methow rivers could loft the excessive rainfall out of the prairie of the flooded BC communities and farms into these river basins; hence to the Columbia for storage at the Dalles and similar dams or release to the Pacific. These category 3-5 ARs are going to continue and in this region of the NW Pacific more disastrous flooding can be expected in the future. The cost of these simple microwave emitters would be small compared to the cost of flooding damage. Ask me how aquariusradar could work. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS not there yet for the same time frame...