PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow drift]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro still looks like a progressive +EPO mess to me right through the end. Luckily it's been balls for most of the year.

It's not much of a stretch. 2011-12 and 2017-18 should both be analogs. Bastardi is throwing around 1984-85. Everybody loves super sexy analogs. We'll probably end up with something more akin to 2011-12 and 2017-18.

[Phishy Wx]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro still looks like a progressive +EPO mess to me right through the end. Luckily it's been balls for most of the year.

well unless the +EPO relents Euro is going to be generally right for the foreseeable future

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

It's not much of a stretch. 2011-12 and 2017-18 should both be analogs. Bastardi is throwing around 1984-85. Everybody loves super sexy analogs. We'll probably end up with something more akin to 2011-12 and 2017-18.

could be worse!

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I mean that is basically true of any year when trying to find an analog.  What's the cutoff for you when searching for analog years?

2011-12 and 2017-18 are both good analogs from recent memory. My cuttoff is roughly 20-30 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

It's not much of a stretch. 2011-12 and 2017-18 should both be analogs. Bastardi is throwing around 1984-85. Everybody loves super sexy analogs. We'll probably end up with something more akin to 2011-12 and 2017-18.

We could do a lot worse. Though the complete crapfest of January 2018 through mid-February kind of ruined that winter for me, though December was cool, and late February through March was cold and snowy. 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

well unless the +EPO relents Euro is going to be generally right for the foreseeable future

EPO is forecast to subside mid month  by king Euro no less

 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It was super cold into the center of the country. January was a massive inversion up here in Spokane. We kept snowcover for 2-3 months. 2016-17 was kind of similar. I feel like it's a mistake to use analogs like 1984-85, because the climate is warmer now. 

exactly anything prior to 2000 is pretty much a crap shoot analog wise now.  sea ice concentration alone puts us in a different place in the last 10-20 years ish

[Snownerd3000]

 

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

2011-12 and 2017-18 are both good analogs from recent memory. My cuttoff is roughly 20-30 years.

I mean 84 is just out side the scope.  Believe the 80s were in a -PDO regime as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2011-12 and 2017-18 were much different up here. 17-18 was very dry, whereas 11-12' was extremely wet. They both had anomalous troughing late February into early April, but 17-18' seemed more continental. 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We could do a lot worse. Though the complete crapfest of January 2018 through mid-February kind of ruined that winter for me, though December was cool, and late February through March was cold and snowy. 

A 2011-12 repeat would be good for you. Neither winter was completely awful, and neither one was a blockbuster.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

I mean 84 is just out side the scope.  Believe the 80s were in a -PDO regime as well.

1984-85 was a mod la nina with +pdo. It was a weird one.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

1984-85 was a mod la nina with +pdo. It was a weird one.

while we are going back in time, 74-75 was a weak nina and was a great snow year for KGEG.  started off slow too, mot much in november then it locked in

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2011-12 and 2017-18 were much different up here. 17-18 was very dry, whereas 11-12' was extremely wet. They both had anomalous troughing late February into early April, but 17-18' seemed more continental. 

They were both 2nd year -QBO la niñas.

[snow drift]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

while we are going back in time, 74-75 was a weak nina and was a great snow year for KGEG.  started off slow too, mot much in november then it locked in

I've seen people kick that one around. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow drift said:

A 2011-12 repeat would be good for you. Neither winter was completely awful, and neither one was a blockbuster.

I would be fine with a 17-18 redux too. But it would be nice for winter to happen in winter this year. At least 11-12' had the massive January event. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS now showing lowland snow... things are getting closer. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS now showing lowland snow... things are getting closer. 

 

I have final winterizing preparations planned for this weekend. 

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS now showing lowland snow... things are getting closer. 

 

Does it show anything just through next Tuesday?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Does it show anything just through next Tuesday?

 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Hmmm....

[Phishy Wx]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55776-some-thoughts-on-the-winter-2021-22-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=6195173

[snow drift]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would be fine with a 17-18 redux too. But it would be nice for winter to happen in winter this year. At least 11-12' had the massive January event. 

December 2017 wasn't bad in Coeur d'Alene. 2011-2012 was ok.

[Phil]

Ugly euro run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, snow drift said:

December 2017 wasn't bad in Coeur d'Alene. 2011-2012 was ok.

December was actually pretty chilly here, but we were south of the snow around Christmas, even at this elevation. The cold pretty much cut off around PDX. 

We haven't had more than a dusting of snow in December here since 2016. We are definitely more overdue for snow in December than January. We had some respectable snow the past two Januaries. Though overall they were pretty warm. 

[Phil]

55 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Oh he's def east coast biased.  But the analog of 84-85 would be amazing and what he showed looked compelling regarding the strat warm in Dec lining up with what happened in Dec 84.

I don’t see any evidence of a stratwarm this December. Early/mid January looks a bit more interesting.

[snow drift]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December was actually pretty chilly here, but we were south of the snow around Christmas, even at this elevation. The cold pretty much cut off around PDX. 

We haven't had more than a dusting of snow in December here since 2016. We are definitely more overdue for snow in December than January. We had some respectable snow the past two Januaries. Though overall they were pretty warm. 

This December looks to start warm. Tomorrow could be close to 60. We already had snow on the ground in 1984.

[Everleigh]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

 

Last Tuesday morning, I smelt that distinct "it's going to snow" smell in the air for the first time this season. Looking forward to snow on Christmas lights this December.

My husband thinks I am nuts when I tell him "I smell snow"!!! lol I am correct more than I am wrong when I smell it though, and he still thinks I am a few apples short of a bushel! 

[Snownerd3000]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t see any evidence of a stratwarm this December. Early/mid January looks a bit more interesting.

I have no idea how to read a 10mb map but isn't this showing a sudden warming over Canada?

[SalemDuck]

Good trends on the teleconnections. Mid December looks to be a good window.

 

[paulb/eugene]

It’s already starting to cool off…was 64F in Eugene yesterday, now 62F.  At this rate will be 10F on Christmas Eve.  
 

A 1933-34 nightmare is possible but more probable is something much better.

 

[Phishy Wx]

imagine how bored we would be sitting around in '33, bitching at each on the internet waiting for snow to come.

[Phishy Wx]

anyone have the AO or NAO forecast?  need those to cooperate too

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

imagine how bored we would be sitting around in '33, bitching at each on the internet waiting for snow to come.

Arguing in the breadlines. We were coming off a pretty legit stretch of winters though. 

[SalemDuck]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

anyone have the AO or NAO forecast?  need those to cooperate too

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

 

 

would like to see those go negative too to get some confidence

[Omegaraptor]

57 at Corvallis. Will we hit 60 or just barely miss it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Torching begets torching. 

[snow drift]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

anyone have the AO or NAO forecast?  need those to cooperate too

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

It's all there.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

It's all there.

That is one positive AO.  Good news though is NAO goes positive when PNA and EPO look to go negative

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

That is one positive AO.  Good news though is NAO goes positive when PNA and EPO look to go negative

GFS ext shows AO goes maybe negative later Dec.  Weeklies mean is pretty flat but huge variation among the members.