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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

Meatyorologist

By Meatyorologist
in West of the Rockies

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Jim is high as a kite.

You're going to see the light soon enough.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Stop posting Oregon only maps. No one ******* cares. The WA map covers 99% of this forum's members, but the ones you keep posting cut out half of them for no reason. I'm so glad you never get snow. Yo

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, snow_wizard said:

Check out this run to run change on the ECMWF at day 9.5.  Pretty darn nice!

 

cold.png

But that is a transitory trough... just timing.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt Matt nailed it....assuming it really happens.  He's been talking about it for weeks or maybe a few months.  There were certainly signs this winter would be more front loaded a while back, but he ran with it.  When he's talked about this it hasn't been laced with the usual sarcasm and whatnot.

December IS due. Though not as much as January.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Whatever does happen next month, I don’t think the Pacific is gonna be taken out of the equation, which may not be an entirely bad thing.

That is my sense too... could mean lots of snow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't care if it's sunny and 70 or sunny and 15, we need some dry weather up here. Over 18 inches of rain this month. STUPID.

 

00Z ECMWF is far from dry over the next 10 days... but at least not so ridiculously wet for us.    

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_10day-9094400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

IMO this is a positive development. 😱

Hints at a Scandinavian ridge D10 onwards on some guidance, including the EPS. If that verifies (and persists) it could open conduits more legitimate blocking down the road.

0DCAF037-9828-447D-B406-07E344829214.jpeg

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Improved EPS.  Keep in mind the weeklies were extended from last night's 0z and they ended up in a good place.

 

cold.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Phil said:

IMO this is a positive development. 😱

Hints at a Scandinavian ridge D10 onwards on some guidance, including the EPS. If that verifies (and persists) it could open conduits more legitimate blocking down the road.

0DCAF037-9828-447D-B406-07E344829214.jpeg

It's pretty hard to ignore how the weeklies totally dislodged the AK cold next month as well.

You really need to have more of an open mind about observed weather analogs.  At least for this area they carry a lot of weight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Some improvement so far with the EPS in the 8-12 day period.

EDIT:. Not as good after that.  

And then good again.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's pretty hard to ignore how the weeklies totally dislodged the AK cold next month as well.

You really need to have more of an open mind about observed weather analogs.  At least for this area they carry a lot of weight.

Might be during the second half of the month... the 00Z EPS still shows the cold parked over Alaska at the end of the run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Positive anom centered at 50N on the last frame of the EPS.  Way north of 2007 levels.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be during the second half of the month... the 00Z EPS still shows the cold parked over Alaska at the end of the run.

Yeah....but that huge ridge is slowly moving into the west part.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t know about anyone else but I am going full Jim this season! We are going to get nuked!! 

White Christmas incoming.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Snownerd3000 Grand Master

Snownerd3000

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Phil said:

IMO this is a positive development. 😱

Hints at a Scandinavian ridge D10 onwards on some guidance, including the EPS. If that verifies (and persists) it could open conduits more legitimate blocking down the road.

0DCAF037-9828-447D-B406-07E344829214.jpeg

Pretty sure I've read Judah Cohen talk about Ural blocking dislodging the PV. That looks like it's in the right area. Would jive with the forecast SSW mod month 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Oh boy!   PNA is much lower on this EPS run and the EPO is dropping late in the run.  This is getting VERY interesting now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Just looking at my records for November 2008 and 2016 and this certainly has elements of both.  For observed weather this was a very good match to 2008 which was wet and just a bit warmer than this one.  2007 was both dry and cool.  I hate to harp on 2007, but I'm just not seeing it.  In spite of that I still consider it an analog on the technical side of things.

Just for a feel type of thing I consider 1990 the top analog this season.  It just has all of the same elements.  For various reasons I'm going with.

1970, 1971, 1975, 1984, 1990, 1995, 2007, 2008, 2011, and 2016.  Many of these have been on the CPC analogs many times this season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MossMan said:

I don’t know about anyone else but I am going full Jim this season! We are going to get nuked!! 

I'm not quite there yet but I do see a number of signs that this winter is likely to be a frontloaded (or at least non-backloaded) snowy one.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, umadbro said:

Seen it before. 1995 or 96. Growing up in Lynnwood. Around 3 or so feet total. I remember the top of the snow was right up to the bottom of our picnic table.

About a month ago I posted some pics of what the aftermath of those storms looked like in Shoreline.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, umadbro said:

Seen it before. 1995 or 96. Growing up in Lynnwood. Around 3 or so feet total. I remember the top of the snow was right up to the bottom of our picnic table.

About a month ago I posted some pics of what the aftermath of those storms looked like in Shoreline.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Everleigh Mentor

Everleigh

Posted
Posted

I once did a "snow dance" as a sm0l child, and it "worked", so maybe I should try that again, yeah? lol (I think I was maybe 6, and stood in the front yard with my bro and a friend, jumping up and down in a circle, chanting "Snow! Snow! Snow!, and then woke up to snow the next day.....Let me tell you, we thought we were magical!)

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Snownerd3000 Grand Master

Snownerd3000

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

06z seems improved, from what I can peruse on free model readers. What a weird low pressure system in the clown range though...

Edit: and that gob of arctic air juuuust about to slide past the border at the end...nice.

Noice Thats Nice GIF

Also worth noting, the 0z also had the Arctic air mass knocking at our door in the clown range. 

I'm going to be super impressed with the long range skill of both models if this mid month timing comes through. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z GFS last night showed 105 inches of snow in Hood River over the next 2 weeks... the new 00Z run is down to just 24 inches there over the same time period.     Something tells me the 06Z run will be back up over 100 inches.  👍

I was close... the 06Z showed 92 inches of snow for Hood River!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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