PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[bainbridgekid]

Will be interesting to see if the Euro has anything remotely close to the GFS's Saturday and Monday snowy systems. Unlikely IMO since the GEM had us nowhere close but we will know in a few minutes.

[Skagit Weather]

54 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Final snow map...

20" of snow up here and not a single subfreezing high? Hmmm...for some reason I have my doubts. Although I guess it would make for a lot of good snowman making weather!

0.23" on the day so far.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF trending snowier for Saturday now as well... 

 

[Snownerd3000]

Bastardi just posted a few hours ago on Wxbell the upcoming forecasted strat warm for mid december bringing 84-85 into the mix for analogs.  I was born in 84 so I don't remember this winter but holy the anomaly maps they show are ridiculous for January. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF trending snowier for Saturday now as well... 

 

Got my wife's christmas party Saturday in Seattle.  Could get interesting

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Bastardi just posted a few hours ago on Wxbell the upcoming forecasted strat warm for mid december bringing 84-85 into the mix for analogs.  I was born in 84 so I don't remember this winter but holy the anomaly maps they show are ridiculous for January. 

That winter was one of the colder ones for the region in the last few decades. Very good December and early February. January 1985 was very chilly, but mostly fake cold and was the driest on record regionally. 

Also a very wet November that year.

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF trending snowier for Saturday now as well... 

 

Might have to trend north up to orcas island if we keep getting these runs with low snow levels. 

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looking warmer for Sunday Monday 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That winter was one of the colder ones for the region in the last few decades. Very good December and early February. January 1985 was very chilly, but mostly fake cold and was the driest on record regionally. 

Also a very wet November that year.

Where do I sign up?

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro looking warmer for Sunday Monday 

00Z run showed low 50s in Seattle on Monday... 12Z run shows mid 40s.    So actually trending cooler at the surface.

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG the EURO is awful. Hard to get excited about the GFS when the EURO shows absolute garbage. 

[GobBluth]

Euro hinting at a Hudson Bay low locked in. West coast torching forever!

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per 12Z ECMWF through next Tuesday...

 

[Deweydog]

[TacomaWaWx]

Froyobro is SHOCKED by these morning developments 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per 12Z ECMWF through next Tuesday...

 

Trending towards the GFS!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per 12Z ECMWF through next Tuesday...

 

Euro moving in the direction of the superior GFS.

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OMG the EURO is awful. Hard to get excited about the GFS when the EURO shows absolute garbage. 

Yup. Tomorrow is December, there's no snow below 7k on Bachelor and no start to the ski season in sight agreed upon by models. Starting to get worried.

PDX has also tied or broken 3 daily temp records in a row.

[SalemDuck]

The Euro is definitely not agreeing with the GFS on the Sunday-Monday trough but it's definitely trended it to the SW, while amplifying the ridging.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Yup. Tomorrow is December, there's no snow below 7k on Bachelor and no start to the ski season in sight agreed upon by models. Starting to get worried.

PDX has also tied or broken 3 daily temp records in a row.

What the GFS shows would be terrific... Just needs to happen. 

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oregon WRF map.

[ShawniganLake]

The JMA is not on-board

[Phishy Wx]

51 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Bastardi just posted a few hours ago on Wxbell the upcoming forecasted strat warm for mid december bringing 84-85 into the mix for analogs.  I was born in 84 so I don't remember this winter but holy the anomaly maps they show are ridiculous for January. 

well if he said it, I take back what I said earlier lol.  def not going to happen now, or if it does he'll beat the chest for "east coast, east coast'

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon WRF map.

man i haven't had acid like that since the early 90s

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

well if he said it, I take back what I said earlier lol.  def not going to happen now, or if it does he'll beat the chest for "east coast, east coast'

Oh he's def east coast biased.  But the analog of 84-85 would be amazing and what he showed looked compelling regarding the strat warm in Dec lining up with what happened in Dec 84.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately it looks like the GFS is trying to go it alone...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Oh he's def east coast biased.  But the analog of 84-85 would be amazing and what he showed looked compelling regarding the strat warm in Dec lining up with what happened in Dec 84.

Cold February/March incoming. 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

well if he said it, I take back what I said earlier lol.  def not going to happen now, or if it does he'll beat the chest for "east coast, east coast'

I had to do it

[Snownerd3000]

 

Now this is interesting.  Look at how close those are on the 9th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a feeling February and March are going to deliver big time up here...

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a feeling February and March are going to deliver big time up here...

Giving up on January already?

[BLI snowman]

Euro still looks like a progressive +EPO mess to me right through the end. Luckily it's been balls for most of the year.

[Ellsworb]

Come On GooFuS!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still no fuckkin' snow on Bachelor. Anybody able to take me up there for some "winter" hiking? May as well enjoy the views if there's not gonna be any snow.

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Bastardi just posted a few hours ago on Wxbell the upcoming forecasted strat warm for mid december bringing 84-85 into the mix for analogs.  I was born in 84 so I don't remember this winter but holy the anomaly maps they show are ridiculous for January. 

It was super cold into the center of the country. January was a massive inversion up here in Spokane. We kept snowcover for 2-3 months. 2016-17 was kind of similar. I feel like it's a mistake to use analogs like 1984-85, because the climate is warmer now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Giving up on January already?

No not really... I think January has the best potential for the lowlands. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

It was super cold into the center of the country. January was a massive inversion up here in Spokane. We kept snowcover for 2-3 months. 2016-17 was kind of similar. I feel like it's a mistake to use analogs like 1984-85, because the climate is warmer now. 

I mean that is basically true of any year when trying to find an analog.  What's the cutoff for you when searching for analog years?