PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Snownerd3000]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One of these times an AR is going to mix with some cold air if this keeps up.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This run has quite a remarkable N to S gradient with the cool period late this week and this weekend.  At one point 850s slope from -5 over SEA to +5 around Eugene.

So, normal in other words?

There's still nothing being depicted in the models that shows anything of note for here. Should be able to start counting 90F+ days soon enough during this location's active weather season from Apr-Sept.

[snow_wizard]

The control model on the GFS ensemble is a lot colder than it's been on this run.  As cold or colder than the operational at times.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So, normal in other words?

It only like that for a couple of days.

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wouldn't that be something.  Some moderate cold and snow in December and then just crushed in January.

Anyone well versed in reading a 10mb map?  I have zero clue on this when I see Judah Cohen or anyone else for that matter share pics of them.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It only like that for a couple of days.

Feels like it happens a lot now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

[Cascadia_Wx]

61/51 yesterday 56/50 today very mild.

[umadbro]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One of these times an AR is going to mix with some cold air if this keeps up.

Seen it before. 1995 or 96. Growing up in Lynnwood. Around 3 or so feet total. I remember the top of the snow was right up to the bottom of our picnic table.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Corvallis

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Corvallis

Look at that piece of green in Lane County. You picked the wrong school my friend. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look at that piece of green in Lane County. You picked the wrong school my friend. 

The Oregon school colors appear on temperature anomaly maps. Poetic

Looks like that orange in southeastern OR extends just far enough to grab OSU Cascades as well.

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Seen it before. 1995 or 96. Growing up in Lynnwood. Around 3 or so feet total. I remember the top of the snow was right up to the bottom of our picnic table.

My dad grew up in Buffalo and he said he’s never seen that much snow melt that fast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

GFS Day 4

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, umadbro said:

My dad grew up in Buffalo and he said he’s never seen that much snow melt that fast.

This winter he is going to say he has never seen that much snow stay on the ground so long!

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Seen it before. 1995 or 96. Growing up in Lynnwood. Around 3 or so feet total. I remember the top of the snow was right up to the bottom of our picnic table.

Think that was 96, right after Christmas.  That was a fun event.  The start of that snow the day after Christmas was one of the most insane snows I've ever seen.  I was at my buddies playing the N64 they got for Christmas.  When the flakes came, they fell hard and fast.  They look fat and fluffy but we ran out in it to celebrate and were bombarded by the flakes, they kinda stung when they hit your skin.  Never seen snow like that since.

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This warmth was kind of like the final piece of the puzzle for me.  It just screams cold weather coming when combined with everything else.

Oh Jim.  Gotta love the optimism.

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Think that was 96, right after Christmas.  That was a fun event.  The start of that snow the day after Christmas was one of the most insane snows I've ever seen.  I was at my buddies playing the N64 they got for Christmas.  When the flakes came, they fell hard and fast.  They look fat and fluffy but we ran out in it to celebrate and were bombarded by the flakes, they kinda stung when they hit your skin.  Never seen snow like that since.

That’s the one 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Oh Jim.  Gotta love the optimism.

I'm actually fairly optimistic about this winter, and you know that is rare for me. Not super optimistic about the next 1-2 weeks though. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is trending toward the GFS after the horrible 12z run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

One things for sure, that is a classic textbook Kona!

12z GFS in 9 hours 5 minutes

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, umadbro said:

My dad grew up in Buffalo and he said he’s never seen that much snow melt that fast.

Jan 1935 was the king for fast melt.  Palmer (not far from where I live) had 58 inches on the ground that was gone in 3 days.  Oh the 1930s!

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm actually fairly optimistic about this winter, and you know that is rare for me. Not super optimistic about the next 1-2 weeks though. 

At your elevation I would be too.

I don’t think most of the forum will share in your riches, though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Not exactly what I was expecting

GFS This is where the models diverge with handling the offshore ridging and merge/connection with the high pressure south of the Aleutians.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is trending toward the GFS after the horrible 12z run.

00Z ECMWF seems worse than it's 12Z run... but maybe I am missing something upstream.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Crummy like the GEM

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

At your elevation I would be too.

I don’t think most of the forum will share in your riches, though.

Alright Phil we get it. Everyone under 1,000ft will not see a single snowflake this season. Fred needs to ban all members living at 999ft and under. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF seems worse than it's 12Z run... but maybe I am missing something upstream.

Jim is high as a kite.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Might be going somewhere late in the run with the kona low heading back to Hawaii

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't care if it's sunny and 70 or sunny and 15, we need some dry weather up here. Over 18 inches of rain this month. STUPID.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

[BLI snowman]

Obvious that nothing interesting is going to happen until day 9-10 at the earliest anyways.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Obvious that nothing interesting is going to happen until day 9-10 at the earliest anyways.

Seems likely, but ya never know.

6z GFS in 2 hours 35 minutes

I am exhausted and going to sleep early. Have a good night all.

[snow_wizard]

Check out this run to run change on the ECMWF at day 9.5.  Pretty darn nice!