PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[LowerGarfield]

Just checked outside. 50F and overcast.

[Snownerd3000]

19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ahh the “weeklies”. Like most long range modeling their accuracy is generally not great beyond a couple weeks.  Just sayin!   

Hence my excitement if they do.

[Snownerd3000]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think many if not most of us will soon be seeing the “S” word as every local media outlet calls it. 

That word? 

[Anti Marine Layer]

51 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What is this sorcery!? 

It's telling him that it's time to shave.

[MossMan]

Breezy! 
50 degrees currently. 
.07” so far on the day. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Breezy! 
50 degrees currently. 
.07” so far on the day. 

Is the record broken yet?

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's telling him that it's time to shave.

I’m not shaving until February…My face will need the insulation from the coming winter madness! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Appetizer around the 10-15th, significant event around Christmas?

[Ellsworb]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS shows some lowland snow on Saturday morning.

I'M IN THE BLUE ON THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE TAPPS!!!

[Phishy Wx]

7 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Pretty sure I've read Judah Cohen talk about Ural blocking dislodging the PV. That looks like it's in the right area. Would jive with the forecast SSW mod month 

I didn't see that but did see some 10mb maps yesterday saying possible SSW in mid Dec which usually translates to arctic outbreak 4-6 weeks later ish. (mid Jan)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not sure I buy this precip type...

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS shows some lowland snow on Saturday morning.

And much more on Monday...

 

[Phishy Wx]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Just looking at my records for November 2008 and 2016 and this certainly has elements of both.  For observed weather this was a very good match to 2008 which was wet and just a bit warmer than this one.  2007 was both dry and cool.  I hate to harp on 2007, but I'm just not seeing it.  In spite of that I still consider it an analog on the technical side of things.

Just for a feel type of thing I consider 1990 the top analog this season.  It just has all of the same elements.  For various reasons I'm going with.

1970, 1971, 1975, 1984, 1990, 1995, 2007, 2008, 2011, and 2016.  Many of these have been on the CPC analogs many times this season.

74-75 and 08-09 look really good for E WA.   seem similar, both weak ninas

[AlTahoe]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Just looking at my records for November 2008 and 2016 and this certainly has elements of both.  For observed weather this was a very good match to 2008 which was wet and just a bit warmer than this one.  2007 was both dry and cool.  I hate to harp on 2007, but I'm just not seeing it.  In spite of that I still consider it an analog on the technical side of things.

Just for a feel type of thing I consider 1990 the top analog this season.  It just has all of the same elements.  For various reasons I'm going with.

1970, 1971, 1975, 1984, 1990, 1995, 2007, 2008, 2011, and 2016.  Many of these have been on the CPC analogs many times this season.

I know Dec 1990 featured a historic cold snap as most of California's all time lows were set then. But I would hate to follow that Winters progression as we had 0 precip and snow until March 1st when Miracle saved the season. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm not sure I buy this precip type...

Something is not right... the 00Z ECMWF did not show any lowland snow for the next 10 days while the 12Z GFS shows tons of lowland snow within just the next 6 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Something is not right... the 00Z ECMWF did not show any lowland snow for the next 10 days while the 12Z GFS shows tons of lowland snow within just the next 6 days.

Just doesn't seem like a cold enough airmass to support that much lowland snow... Not like it will be overrunning a very cold low level airmass... The GFS is showing accumulating snow all the way down the WV with like -3C 850mb temps and no meaningful low level cold in place. 

[SnowWillarrive]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS shows some lowland snow on Saturday morning.

I’m liking this. 

[Everleigh]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Something is not right... the 00Z ECMWF did not show any lowland snow for the next 10 days while the 12Z GFS shows tons of lowland snow within just the next 6 days.

I know the GFS isn't the most reliable, and I am sure I am just wishful here, but COULD it end up being correct? I don't know all that goes into the making of the maps, but it's been showing snow for the 6th for a few runs now, hasn't it? 

[SalemDuck]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just doesn't seem like a cold enough airmass to support that much lowland snow... Not like it will be overrunning a very cold low level airmass... The GFS is showing accumulating snow all the way down the WV with like -3C 850mb temps and no meaningful low level cold in place. 

Flow is offshore, 925mb temps -3, 850mb temps -3/-4 and 34 at the surface, pretty good precip rates. It's realllllllly close.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Everleigh said:

I know the GFS isn't the most reliable, and I am sure I am just wishful here, but COULD it end up being correct? I don't know all that goes into the making of the maps, but it's been showing snow for the 6th for a few runs now, hasn't it? 

Anything is possible... but it seems very unlikely that the ECMWF would completely miss 2 major lowland snowstorms within a week.    And even the ECMWF has been way too generous with lowland snow a couple times already this fall.   We will see what the 12Z run shows.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ICON also shows some lowland snow over the next week... this is more than its 00Z run showed.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.08” this morning and up to 9.69” on the month. Still getting a bit of rain here despite NW flow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

Flow is offshore, 925mb temps -3, 850mb temps -3/-4 and 34 at the surface, pretty good precip rates. It's realllllllly close.

I guess the 12/14/16 event was very marginal and ended up working out very well. Even the day of, I was fairly skeptical that one was going to pan out. Didn't seem to have a very cold airmass in place before hand. 

[LowerGarfield]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm not sure I buy this precip type...

I'm doubtful too, but I'd be thrilled for all of you and I'd get a dusting as well.

[smerfylicious]

I'll take one snow next week please. Oh an encore? My goodness. 

 

Maybe this update to king euro is more of a downgrade...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm going to issue a blizzard warning for Monday morning for all of western WA. 

[LowerGarfield]

I'll take some of your rain. The last three days have been only 0.05 in each 24 hour period starting at 8am. But I live in a semi arid climate so it's really my fault.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I guess the 12/14/16 event was very marginal and ended up working out very well. Even the day of, I was fairly skeptical that one was going to pan out. Didn't seem to have a very cold airmass in place before hand. 

I only have a picture of my dog for that day. Must have been a non event up here. 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm going to issue a blizzard warning for Monday morning for all of western WA. 

What will you issue for MossMan's location?

[SalemDuck]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I only have a picture of my dog for that day. Must have been a non event up here. 

It was PDX south basically, mid-Willamette valley was the bullseye I believe.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Kuchera shows totals cut in half….I would still take it! The SPS is due for a snowstorm!!!!

[FroYoBro]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Just now, SalemDuck said:

It was PDX south basically, mid-Willamette valley was the bullseye I believe.

Yes, Salem up to about Wilsonville had the best amounts. Snow cut off pretty quickly across the PDX Metro. I believe south of Albany was ZR. Eugene had a significant ZR event that day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run doesn't dig the late week trough as well next week. Seems to be a theme with the runs that show the earlier stuff being better. Overall a really good run so far though. Will at least feel like the season. 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Kuchera shows totals cut in half….I would still take it! The SPS is due for a snowstorm!!!!

lol it’s only been 289 days since our last major event (February 14th). 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What will you issue for MossMan's location?

Snow plow day warning.

[TacomaWaWx]

 Coastal radar appears to be down this morning. 

[Phil]

Hmm. Long range GFS/GEFS and EPS both now hinting at the development of a Scandinavian ridge.

Long way to go, but if that verifies (and persists) then I think we at least avoid a worst case outcome (1999/00, etc).

First legitimate “good news” development I’ve seen in several weeks. Hopefully it’s real and not a mirage.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be crazy to have a December 1924, January 1950, February 1929, March 1951 redux. 

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I guess the 12/14/16 event was very marginal and ended up working out very well. Even the day of, I was fairly skeptical that one was going to pan out. Didn't seem to have a very cold airmass in place before hand. 

That was a pretty ideal setup actually, at least from Salem-north. Strong low landfalling around Reedsport with a very cold airmass (850s ended up getting to -10c at SLE) advecting in from the NE. Almost a picture perfect setup. 

Had a little too much downslope component to the north of the low, otherwise it would have been amazing, but still wound up with a respectable 3" of 28-30F powder here going into a cold spell. 1/10/2017 totally overshadowed it here but that was still a great event.