October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[NEJeremy]

Who posted that Jeremy?? Could you send me that link please?! Thanks, man I'm hoping its active, I don't care if its warm or cold storms just give us storms! The past 5-7 years we have had nothing but NW flow; and normally El nino's bring a southwest flow so hoping for that to be the dominate storm pattern in this years LRC. GO CUBS! I'm so excited I can barely control myself.....having Russell out of the lineup hurts our defense a little. Nothing against Baez, but nobody is as good and consistent at short as Addison. Another thing, which is hard to believe, the cubs have never clinched a series at Wrigley! Lets break that today!! 

It was Jim Flowers on his Facebook page. Not sure if you follow him. He has been posting quite a bit about this coming winter and in his hints he feels like Nebraska is in a sweet spot this winter.

I've been a Cubs fan since I was about 8 years old in 1986, so this is awesome! I am working today until 530 so I am recording the game to watch it after I get home. Hoping we get rid of the Cards today!

[james1976]

12z GFS looking stormy mid-long range.

[clintbeed1993]

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist?fref=ts

 

Here is the link to Jim Flower's Facebook Page.  Definitely worth following as he talks a lot about the long term weather pattern going into the winter.

[Tom]

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist?fref=ts

 

Here is the link to Jim Flower's Facebook Page.  Definitely worth following as he talks a lot about the long term weather pattern going into the winter.

Thanks for sharing!  This met just adds to the arsenal of long range forecasting.  It's amazing to see that there are mets out there that find cyclical patterns that work for them in terms of long range forecasting.  Jim Flowers & Gary Lezak are pretty similar in their styles of forecasting but it seems Jim uses the SOI and averages it out over 2 or 3 years.to determine his approach.  Not only do I believe in cyclical patterns on our planet, but its also Human Nature to act in cyclical patterns.

[Tom]

CPC seeing the wetter pattern...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[Geos]

CPC seeing the wetter pattern...

 

Big change from 2 days ago.

 

Made it to 59° with some sun this afternoon. Now it's kind of cloudy again.

 

I'm ready for a stormy pattern after this week. 

[OKwx2k4]

local met posted this morning that the 30 day outlook from the Euro has storms emerging onto the Plains on 10/20, 10/25, 10/27, 10/30, 11/7, and 11/10!! What a pattern that would be!!

Repeat that about 5 times or until it has snowed me to oblivion this winter and I will be happy. That would be the most active pattern in a long time.

[james1976]

CPC: Thank you for the bullseye. Now please make it happen. Lol

[Tom]

You couldn't ask for a better victory as the Cub's clinch the NLDS against their arch rivals Cardinals!  It's like the Hawks clinching a Stanley Cup birth in 2013 against the hated Red Wings at home on Game 7 of the WCF.  This team is breaking old and setting new records, setting firsts for the Franchise and in the MLB....Chicago is in a Frenzy baby!  BTW, winds calmed down and Schwarber hit a 420+ Ft Bomb over the Budweiser sign....are you kidding me?  If that was yesterday it would've hit the buildings on the street!  I can't believe how Magical of a season this teams has had thus far...Let's make this 2015-16 Winter season Magical!!!!  Go Cub's Go!  Take it all the way babaaaay!

[gabel23]

I can wait to witness the frenzy next week!! I'm coming to Chicago next week for game 3, I can't wait!! Let's hope this winter delivers us a surprise like this Cubs team is doing!!

[Tom]

I can wait to witness the frenzy next week!! I'm coming to Chicago next week for game 3, I can't wait!! Let's hope this winter delivers us a surprise like this Cubs team is doing!!

The weather for next Tuesday looks decent out here...the winds are forecast to be coming out of the South.  Might be another game entertained by Home runs.

[Hawkeye]

The NWS and local mets have now lowered the Saturday morning low to the upper 20s.  I'll try to save a couple of my best hummingbird plants just in case a late straggler passes by, but the highest priority will be covering my late-planted beets.

[Tom]

AO/NAO on the EURO/GFS are forecast now to pop positive around the 21st.  Might see some systems cutting way up to the north and produce some ridging around here mid/late next week.  The Typhoon in the western Pacific is forecast to head west into China now which should produce ridging in the extended and more trough in the west.

[Maxim]

GFS is all over the place as usual. Really wish someone could put an end to its misery.

[james1976]

Enough with the ridging already.

[OKwx2k4]

Enough with the ridging already.

I second that. Screw ridging. Tired of sweating.

[Maxim]

Enough with the ridging already.

Would rather have it now than later in the winter, in fact, I welcome a ridge (a weak one at that). Always nice to have an extended golf season 

[Tom]

12z Euro seeing a better system wound system next Wed/Thu ejecting into SE NE to MSP which then tugs down some more chilly air Thu/Fri.  Models having a real tough time figuring this pattern out.  Another system heads into the PAC NW/Northern Rockies the following weekend which may be more interesting.  Still to far out, first things first, lets see what nxt week's system does.  The week of the 25th could be a snow maker for parts of the Plains/Northern Plains if everything lines up right.  Should be a good cutter with a -PNA developing.

[Tom]

CFSv2 getting aggressive with the precip Week 2, Week 3 it focus's the wet pattern along the East Coast, then Week 4 (first week of Nov) back into the central CONUS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015101412/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_namer_2.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015101412/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_namer_4.png

[Geos]

I got 30-31° for lows for the weekend. This morning was 38° with patchy frost on roofs.

 

All trees now have color now. 

[Tom]

Our First Freeze Watch of the Season!

 

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
343 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

.LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND PRODUCE NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES
AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.

ILZ014-151645-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FZ.A.0001.151017T0600Z-151017T1400Z/
COOK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO
343 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWER 30S FOR FAR WESTERN COOK COUNTY.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION TO FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF NOT PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

 

 

 

Freeze Warnings hoisted for the Plains states as Autumns coldest air mass of the season arrives.

 

 

As for the forecast next Tuesday, models showing gusty SW winds both Tue/Wed which are hitter friendly winds out into Center field..

 

 

 

In other news, the very warm waters in the E PAC are bringing Great White sharks into the bay near San Francisco.  Here's a video of a Great White breaching the water while attacking a seal...

 

http://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2015/10/14/Great-white-sharks-seal-attack-caught-on-camera-from-Alcatraz-ferry/5841444844195/spt=su&or=btn_tw

[Maxim]

growing season is done it looks like.

[Tom]

Possible Indian Summer conditions next Mon/Tue for the Plains???  Some areas may touch 80F after a killing Freeze in NE.  Not bad around here also for Game 3 & 4 of NLCS.

 

JMA Weeklies suggest a nation divided Week 1....cold in the East, warm in the West with the 4 corners getting wet.  Week 2 a trough forms in the SW, ridge in the SE...nice pattern setting up for systems entering the central CONUS.  Would be an ideal pattern for the Winter season.

 

 

 

[Tom]

An interesting set-up for a potential large system to hit somewhere in the Plains late next week as a storm systems enters the West Coast and a system develops in the western Gulf.  With a -PNA developing and a HP in the SE, this can tug a lot of moisture up from the GOM next weekend.  I'm hoping for a big wound up storm system.  GFS/EURO Ensembles have something cutting far to the NW from here which will put the Lakes in the warm sector.  Still lots of time to see how it plays out.  AO is forecast to be negative so may see some correction on the exact track.

[Geos]

Forecasted lows of 30° now. Cloudy and damp today so far. Forecast is saying partly cloudy, but it's far from that now.

[Tom]

I'm liking the potential for the 24th/25th system...this thing can become an all-out Autumn storm with heavy snows to the NW, severe storms to the south.  If all pieces can somehow phase together, especially the Gulf energy...look out!

[NEJeremy]

Our First Freeze Watch of the Season!

 

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

343 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

 

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING...

 

.LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL ARRIVE

FRIDAY AND PRODUCE NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO

CALM WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE

MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN OVERNIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES

AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S. CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES

WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.

 

ILZ014-151645-

/O.NEW.KLOT.FZ.A.0001.151017T0600Z-151017T1400Z/

COOK-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO

343 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015

 

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MORNING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING.

 

* TEMPERATURE...LOWER 30S FOR FAR WESTERN COOK COUNTY.

 

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION TO FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING

TEMPERATURES MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF NOT PROTECTED.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

 

 

 

Freeze Warnings hoisted for the Plains states as Autumns coldest air mass of the season arrives.

 

 

As for the forecast next Tuesday, models showing gusty SW winds both Tue/Wed which are hitter friendly winds out into Center field..

 

 

 

In other news, the very warm waters in the E PAC are bringing Great White sharks into the bay near San Francisco.  Here's a video of a Great White breaching the water while attacking a seal...

 

http://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2015/10/14/Great-white-sharks-seal-attack-caught-on-camera-from-Alcatraz-ferry/5841444844195/spt=su&or=btn_tw

wow that is some strong wind! I could see Schwarber and Bryant hitting them over the scoreboards! Bryant's HR would probably have to clear the scoreboard in left center which he nearly did earlier this year.

[Maxim]

GFS showing a pretty impressive storm system for next weekend. Possibly a snowstorm for North Dakota... watch it disappear next run though 

[Tom]

wow that is some strong wind! I could see Schwarber and Bryant hitting them over the scoreboards! Bryant's HR would probably have to clear the scoreboard in left center which he nearly did earlier this year.

Certainly seems like there will be a "mini Jet" overhead...however, on the other side of the coin...if they play LA it will be sunny and in the 80's, cooler in NY in the 60's Fri, 50's Sat.  Where would they rather play???

[Geos]

38° in the forecast tonight and then about ten degrees colder tomorrow night. Planning on starting the yard clean up this weekend and burn the first round of leaves.

 

LOT graphic for the next 72 hours.

 

[Tom]

Central CONUS finally looking like Autumn...

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

 

 

 

By the way, did anyone catch the episode on TWC last night and see the Live interview with Dr. Judah Cohen regarding the Siberian Snow Pack Theory???  It's interesting to see TWC picking up on this theory and showcasing it.

 

Anyhow, GFS looking active/wintry for the Plains in the extended.  Something the CFS has been showing and ending the month of October on a rather chilly note.  GFS/EURO not in agreement with the system coming into the northern Rockies and western Gulf.  GFS has Gulf system coming north into the central CONUS, meanwhile, the EURO has the storm meandering in the Gulf thru Day 10.  What a system this could end up becoming if the northern piece phases with the southern energy...good sign for the new LRC pattern.  Much different pattern than last year.  Fast forward to Winter, these type of scenarios can produce blockbuster storms.

[james1976]

6z GFS showing another big storm for 27th-28th. Too far out to get excited but something to keep an eye on. I like the looks of the pattern setting up.

[gosaints]

Prime week after chilly weekend ahead

[Tom]

GFS still interacting with the GOM system for next weekend...It looks real cold and wintry in the Plains for the extended.  Something the Euro Weeklies/Ensembles have been hinting at.  Real cold finish to the month of October in the Central, warm in the East.  Next weekend could get pretty nice around here in the warm sector of that storm.

[Tom]

GFS dumps snow in ND next weekend....after that, another system forms on its tail and lays down snow in NE and points Northeast!  Great pattern...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015101606/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

[OKwx2k4]

Central CONUS finally looking like Autumn...

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

 

 

 

By the way, did anyone catch the episode on TWC last night and see the Live interview with Dr. Judah Cohen regarding the Siberian Snow Pack Theory??? It's interesting to see TWC picking up on this theory and showcasing it.

 

Anyhow, GFS looking active/wintry for the Plains in the extended. Something the CFS has been showing and ending the month of October on a rather chilly note. GFS/EURO not in agreement with the system coming into the northern Rockies and western Gulf. GFS has Gulf system coming north into the central CONUS, meanwhile, the EURO has the storm meandering in the Gulf thru Day 10. What a system this could end up becoming if the northern piece phases with the southern energy...good sign for the new LRC pattern. Much different pattern than last year. Fast forward to Winter, these type of scenarios can produce blockbuster storms.

The fact that it's even a possibility at this time of year to form a hurricane down there is a pretty neat thing for both the pattern and the energy the Gulf would likely still be able to produce throughout Dec-Feb. This may very well reinforce the western trough idea you have mentioned also for winter. TS Bill and the pattern that followed it this summer may hold some key ideas here. I think it's pretty similar.

[gosaints]

GFS dumps snow in ND next weekend....after that, another system forms on its tail and lays down snow in NE and points Northeast! Great pattern...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015101606/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

Nothing on the 12z run.

[Tom]

Nothing on the 12z run.

Yup, but there is some consensus from the Euro Ensembles of this type of pattern evolving during this period.  Watch, next run it has it back again..or the 12z Euro run comes in wild.  

[Tom]

12z Euro looking like the GFS now as the HP in the East pulls up the system out of the Gulf and hits somewhere near Louisiana.  Tropical moisture then feeds into a very powerful 996mb SLP NW of MSP.

[Tom]

So the Euro has major Snows on the 25th for the Rockies/Black Hills and moderate snowfall from W NE/W SD & ND...pretty similar to the GFS.  Finally may have our first major Autumn storm of the season...still 9 days out so plenty can change.