MossMan Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Another lovely sunset for the drive home. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 -47F in West Yellowstone... 3 1 2 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Well the gfs gets there in the end. 4 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Well the gfs gets there in the end. Almost gets there just after day ten, close enough for an operational run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Well the gfs gets there in the end. Massive potential with a similar setup. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BLI snowman Posted January 21, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 January 31 is thinking about seceding from January and becoming part of February. 7 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Well we will see what the euro looks like at day 10 soon. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Massive potential with a similar setup. Yeah looks good! Hopefully we have a good and better picture of things this time next week. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 outstanding run 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 This would be perfect. 16 inches for the swamp 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Still early but GEFS is a step back compared to 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Devastating trendz. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Still early but GEFS is a step back compared to 18z. Certainly, still a chunk of warm members, not good agreement on trough positioning and strength around the 31st. If there was a scale of five levels of excitement, one being the most excited, I would say I'm at five right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said: How much snow does PDX need to get for you to ditch cliff 6.9 inches. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, MossMan said: I know what Matt’s problem is…He hasn’t bought his late winter Costco long Johns yet. I think I still have those! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 6.9 inches. I wouldn't brag about that 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted January 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Look a baby Mark Nelson! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, The Blob said: I wouldn't brag about that I believe 6.9 inches would put them firmly above average. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 The GFS means business tonight. Very nice run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, The Blob said: Look a baby Mark Nelson! Sad that I remember him in those days. He had a major cold bias back then. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 41 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Certainly, still a chunk of warm members, not good agreement on trough positioning and strength around the 31st. If there was a scale of five levels of excitement, one being the most excited, I would say I'm at five right now. I think that's a bit overly skeptical. The 12z EPS was really solid and I'm betting tonight's run will be too. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Sad that I remember him in those days. He had a major cold bias back then. I still remember how exuberant he was on air about the 12/95 Arctic blast. Went all in 5-6 days out for highs in the low 20’s. Love the guy even though his soul died many moons ago and we were left with nothing but a brilliant meteorologist. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think that's a bit overly skeptical. The 12z EPS was really solid and I'm betting tonight's run will be too. Well, it's still over 240hours out and all the ensemble models aren't perfect. I don't want to be too excited quite yet, just to be let down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 A lot of Jan 1957 in tonight's analog mix. Pretty awesome to see that. I've also seen Jan 1954 show up quite a bit lately. Both really solid / snowy events. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think that's a bit overly skeptical. The 12z EPS was really solid and I'm betting tonight's run will be too. There’s a nice chunk of members including the OP around -10 this run. 18z had almost no warm members and some extreme cold ones but majority were around -5. Good to see some grouping a bit colder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: Well, it's still over 240hours out and all the ensemble models aren't perfect. I don't want to be too excited quite yet, just to be let down. I'm to the point where I allow myself to get excited pretty easily. If it doesn't work out I'll get over it. I have many times before. That having been said the context this time is pretty promising. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: There’s a nice chunk of members including the OP around -10 this run. 18z had almost no warm members and some extreme cold ones but majority were around -5. Good to see some grouping a bit colder That's my feeling exactly. The EPS tells me a warm outcome is pretty unlikely so it's nice to see most of the chilly members really chilly. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Surprised we aren’t talking about sun angles rn tbh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A lot of Jan 1957 in tonight's analog mix. Pretty awesome to see that. I've also seen Jan 1954 show up quite a bit lately. Both really solid / snowy events. January 1954 has silver falls all time single day snowfall record. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Euro day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Euro day 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Surprised we aren’t talking about sun angles rn tbh Not really an issue yet in early February. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Euro day 10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Full run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 21, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Oh wow... 11 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm to the point where I allow myself to get excited pretty easily. If it doesn't work out I'll get over it. I have many times before. That having been said the context this time is pretty promising. I usually don’t let myself start getting excited until about a week out…sometimes less just depending on how solid the model agreement is. It looks pretty promising but that’s about it for now. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 I can’t recall how well the euro 2m temp outputs do during inversions…but at face value many 45/35 type days the final 1/3 of this month. Would bode well for us potentially finishing January 0.5-1.0 degrees above normal which is pretty decent for January nowadays. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 EPS Day 9ish 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 21, 2022 Report Share Posted January 21, 2022 Not bad. Great looking signal this far out with the retrograding ridge/evolving block. If we see the same pattern in 6-7 days we will be looking at really good potential for cold, maybe arctic air. We have a long, long ways to go, and a probably weeks worth of model runs to go before we can get any better idea on this potential. My thinking is by Wednesday 00z runs we'll either be looking at a decent pattern, chilly, but not arctic, OR a brutally cold pattern with people going crazy and 500-1,000 comments for every model run LOL 6z GFS in 2 hours 8 minutes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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