PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[MossMan]

Another lovely sunset for the drive home. 

[Kayla]

-47F in West Yellowstone...

[RentonHill]

[TacomaWaWx]

Well the gfs gets there in the end. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well the gfs gets there in the end. 

Almost gets there just after day ten, close enough for an operational run.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well the gfs gets there in the end. 

Massive potential with a similar setup.

[BLI snowman]

January 31 is thinking about seceding from January and becoming part of February.

[TacomaWaWx]

Well we will see what the euro looks like at day 10 soon. 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Massive potential with a similar setup.

Yeah looks good! Hopefully we have a good and better picture of things this time next week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

outstanding run

[SouthHillFrosty]

This would be perfect. 16 inches for the swamp

[RentonHill]

Still early but GEFS is a step back compared to 18z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Devastating trendz.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Still early but GEFS is a step back compared to 18z. 

Certainly, still a chunk of warm members, not good agreement on trough positioning and strength around the 31st. If there was a scale of five levels of excitement, one being the most excited, I would say I'm at five right now.

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

How much snow does PDX need to get for you to ditch cliff 

6.9 inches.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I know what Matt’s problem is…He hasn’t bought his late winter Costco long Johns yet. 

I think I still have those!

[The Blob]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

6.9 inches.

I wouldn't brag about that

[The Blob]

Look a baby Mark Nelson!

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I wouldn't brag about that

I believe 6.9 inches would put them firmly above average.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS means business tonight.  Very nice run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, The Blob said:

Look a baby Mark Nelson!

Sad that I remember him in those days. He had a major cold bias back then. 

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Certainly, still a chunk of warm members, not good agreement on trough positioning and strength around the 31st. If there was a scale of five levels of excitement, one being the most excited, I would say I'm at five right now.

I think that's a bit overly skeptical.  The 12z EPS was really solid and I'm betting tonight's run will be too.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sad that I remember him in those days. He had a major cold bias back then. 

I still remember how exuberant he was on air about the 12/95 Arctic blast. Went all in 5-6 days out for highs in the low 20’s. Love the guy even though his soul died many moons ago and we were left with nothing but a brilliant meteorologist.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think that's a bit overly skeptical.  The 12z EPS was really solid and I'm betting tonight's run will be too.

Well, it's still over 240hours out and all the ensemble models aren't perfect. I don't want to be too excited quite yet, just to be let down.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of Jan 1957 in tonight's analog mix.  Pretty awesome to see that.  I've also seen Jan 1954 show up quite a bit lately.  Both really solid / snowy events.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think that's a bit overly skeptical.  The 12z EPS was really solid and I'm betting tonight's run will be too.

There’s a nice chunk of members including the OP around -10 this run. 18z had almost no warm members and some extreme cold ones but majority were around -5. Good to see some grouping a bit colder

[snow_wizard]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Well, it's still over 240hours out and all the ensemble models aren't perfect. I don't want to be too excited quite yet, just to be let down.

I'm to the point where I allow myself to get excited pretty easily.  If it doesn't work out I'll get over it.  I have many times before.  That having been said the context this time is pretty promising.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

There’s a nice chunk of members including the OP around -10 this run. 18z had almost no warm members and some extreme cold ones but majority were around -5. Good to see some grouping a bit colder

That's my feeling exactly.  The EPS tells me a warm outcome is pretty unlikely so it's nice to see most of the chilly members really chilly.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Surprised we aren’t talking about sun angles rn tbh

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of Jan 1957 in tonight's analog mix.  Pretty awesome to see that.  I've also seen Jan 1954 show up quite a bit lately.  Both really solid / snowy events.

January 1954 has silver falls all time single day snowfall record. 

[RentonHill]

Euro day 8

[RentonHill]

Euro day 9

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Surprised we aren’t talking about sun angles rn tbh

Not really an issue yet in early February.

[RentonHill]

Euro day 10

[RentonHill]

Full run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh wow...

[TacomaWaWx]

45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm to the point where I allow myself to get excited pretty easily.  If it doesn't work out I'll get over it.  I have many times before.  That having been said the context this time is pretty promising.

I usually don’t let myself start getting excited until about a week out…sometimes less just depending on how solid the model agreement is. It looks pretty promising but that’s about it for now. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I can’t recall how well the euro 2m temp outputs do during inversions…but at face value many 45/35 type days the final 1/3 of this month. Would bode well for us potentially finishing January 0.5-1.0 degrees above normal which is pretty decent for January nowadays. 

[RentonHill]

EPS Day 9ish

[Gradient Keeper]

Not bad.

Great looking signal this far out with the retrograding ridge/evolving block. If we see the same pattern in 6-7 days we will be looking at really good potential for cold, maybe arctic air. We have a long, long ways to go, and a probably weeks worth of model runs to go before we can get any better idea on this potential.

 

My thinking is by Wednesday 00z runs we'll either be looking at a decent pattern, chilly, but not arctic, OR a brutally cold pattern with people going crazy and 500-1,000 comments for every model run LOL

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 8 minutes