November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

First time in a very long while, the SOI is beginning to crash big time.  Normally, this suggest a colder look for the central/eastern CONUS in about 2 weeks which would bring us towards mid-December.  I believe there will be model mayhem in the longer range due to the energy being released from the central Pacific as a stormier look develops in that part of the world.

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 28 Nov 2015

Average for last 30 days -2.7

Average for last 90 days -13.71

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -22.84
 

 

 

Look how much the SOI came off the October levels...that is really impressive...

Monthly average SOI values

August -19.02

September -16.66

October -21.30
 

 

High Pressures building over Australia over the next 10 days, shifts the convection over the central Pacific.  This should produce some interesting weather down the road.

[NEJeremy]

Interesting read but that snowfall map is way off. Omaha doesn't have 4+" of snow and neither does most of southeast Nebraska. There isn't any snow over most of that area.

 

The high Plains and Arrowhead of MN need to fill up with snow so we don't have arctic air modify as much...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201511/nsm_depth_2015112705_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

 

 

Today's U.S. snow cover up to 34.5%...we'll add to that this weekend....by end of November, this month may end up Top 3 highest percentage in past 15+ years.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201511/nsm_depth_2015112705_National.jpg

 

 

 

Interesting trends in North American snow cover during the month of November over the past 50 years...the past 5 years have been setting the trends...wonder what this will look like over the next 10-20 years as we head towards Solar Cycle minimum.

[westMJim]

As of today Grand Rapids, MI is now at +6.3° (47.0°) for the month of November. With 3 days to go we will end up the month well above average with a good shot of being in the top 5 (with at top 3 very much in play)  warmest Novembers on record here in GR (BTW the warmest November here in GR is 47.6° in 1931 with 46.8° in 2001 in 2^nd place). Looking ahead the first 3 weeks of December also now look to be very warm and at this point dryer then average so not much snow is expected at least up to Christmas. 

[Geos]

Was running over a +5° departure all month, but now with this cold weekend - it fell under that. Tomorrow rain will push the month total over 5". November is already the wettest month here this year.

 

Today was colder than predicted. Had some sun, but it was obscured most of the day by high clouds. High 37°, low 22°

[Tom]

What happened to your post Maxim???  You shouldn't of deleted it bud.  Maybe its hilarious that some ppl think this will be a month-long torch.  Some of us are providing valuable info that show a probable outcome of a pattern change.  What's yours???  

[Maxim]

What happened to your post Maxim???  You shouldn't of deleted it bud.  Maybe its hilarious that some ppl think this will be a month-long torch.  Some of us are providing valuable info that show a probable outcome of a pattern change.  What's yours???  

Any respectable met would agree with me, that's all I'll say. Don't have the time right now to give you a detailed analysis on why December will most definitely be mild for the majority of the month, it should be pretty obvious though.

[Maxim]

http://i.imgur.com/2MST9JP.png

[westMJim]

While some locations here in the Midwest, great lakes area have gotten a lot of snow others areas are will behind in the snow fall department. Here in Grand Rapids we will end November 2015 with 3.5” (7.5”) is average for November here.  And in all of norther lower Michigan the snow fall has been well below average for this month,

http://www.weather.gov/apx/snowgraph_ytd

Also at this time it looks like this will be the 3^rd warmest November in recorded history here in Grand Rapids. (note the official reporting station has moved 3 times over the years) I will post tommarow if indeed GR ends up with the 3^rd warmest November 

[GDR]

[gosaints]

3rd warmest fall on record.... 

[westMJim]

Yes,  here in Grand Rapids Michigan November 2015 ended up being the 3^rd warmest in recorded history.  With only 1931 and 2001 having been warmer.  In looking back at some of the “warm” November s and how those winters were.  1931.  December 1931 +6.6°  with 7.1” of snow fall (21.9” is average) January 1932 +9.8° 3.2” of snow fall (20.8” average) February 1932 +5.0° with 5.2” of snow (14.8” average) now here comes the kicker March 1932 -7.2° with 25.3” of snow.  Now for the 2^nd warmest November  2001  December +4.7°  53.9” of snow (yes that’s right and that fell between the 23 and 31^st)  January 2002 +5.8° with 17.5” of snow February +3.8° with 8.7” of snow. And March -4.7° with 22.6” of snow.  And for the old 3^rd warmest November 1909  December -5.2° with 25.2” of snow. January 1910  -0.1° with 12.1” of snow. February 1910 -4.0° with 4.9” of snow and March +9.4° and 0” of snow.  2001 was a weak La Nina year.  1931/32 may have been a El Nino winter and not sure about 1909/10 but as you can see (with a very small sample size) there is a chance this winter could be warm with lots of ups and downs.

[Tom]

Any respectable met would agree with me, that's all I'll say. Don't have the time right now to give you a detailed analysis on why December will most definitely be mild for the majority of the month, it should be pretty obvious though.

I wonder who those respectable mets are???  Might have to jump on the cold/stormy train for once.  Pattern is loading up.

[jaster220]

Yes,  here in Grand Rapids Michigan November 2015 ended up being the 3^rd warmest in recorded history.  With only 1931 and 2001 having been warmer.  In looking back at some of the “warm” November s and how those winters were.  1931.  December 1931 +6.6°  with 7.1” of snow fall (21.9” is average) January 1932 +9.8° 3.2” of snow fall (20.8” average) February 1932 +5.0° with 5.2” of snow (14.8” average) now here comes the kicker March 1932 -7.2° with 25.3” of snow.  Now for the 2^nd warmest November  2001  December +4.7°  53.9” of snow (yes that’s right and that fell between the 23 and 31^st)  January 2002 +5.8° with 17.5” of snow February +3.8° with 8.7” of snow. And March -4.7° with 22.6” of snow.  And for the old 3^rd warmest November 1909  December -5.2° with 25.2” of snow. January 1910  -0.1° with 12.1” of snow. February 1910 -4.0° with 4.9” of snow and March +9.4° and 0” of snow.  2001 was a weak La Nina year.  1931/32 may have been a El Nino winter and not sure about 1909/10 but as you can see (with a very small sample size) there is a chance this winter could be warm with lots of ups and downs.

 

Very nice archive diving there WMJ. My money's on the bolded. We'll see a roller-coaster but I'm still going overall below normal when including March, i.e. D,J,F,M  Snowfall already got a jump-start for everyone but you LES regions. I think you'll catch-up eventually. As Tom said, Ma Nature balancing out last year's record Nov LES. Good Luck to you this winter!

[Geos]

November stats. The wettest month this year and the wettest and snowiest November I've ever experienced here.

And it was quite mild. - no brainier there.

 

 

 

 

[Maxim]

I wonder who those respectable mets are???  Might have to jump on the cold/stormy train for once.  Pattern is loading up.

Stormy, I can see. Cold? Not at all, sorry...

[Tom]

Stormy, I can see. Cold? Not at all, sorry...

We shall see...in the end, Mother Nature wins...neither you nor me...all we can do is sit back and enjoy the show...

 

BTW, 12z Euro Day 9-10 already showing the next big trough digging into the PAC NW as NW NAMER fills up with arctic air and the Eastern Canadian ridge builds.  We saw this pattern in November, it is beginning to set up for a mid month wild ride.

 

12z EPS has a neutral AO/NAO/-PNA developing around the 11th, and holding strong.  That is a textbook bowling ball/cutter type of pattern as the Snow geese in the East will continue to wait for their snows.

 

I think everyone knows the warmth is coming, but near the Lakes, its not like it will be a streak of 50's days on end.  I'd say it will feel like an extension of November-like warmth with temps in the 40's for most days, the next couple days in the upper 30's (avg). 

[westMJim]

This fall in west Michigan was the second warmest fall in recorded history with only 1931 being warmer.

http://www.weather.gov/grr/Fall2015ClimateStatistics

and then the winter of 1931/32 was a very mild winter here as well with January being the current warmest January on record here in Grand Rapids.

[westMJim]

We shall see...in the end, Mother Nature wins...neither you nor me...all we can do is sit back and enjoy the show...

 

BTW, 12z Euro Day 9-10 already showing the next big trough digging into the PAC NW as NW NAMER fills up with arctic air and the Eastern Canadian ridge builds.  We saw this pattern in November, it is beginning to set up for a mid month wild ride.

 

12z EPS has a neutral AO/NAO/-PNA developing around the 11th, and holding strong.  That is a textbook bowling ball/cutter type of pattern as the Snow geese in the East will continue to wait for their snows.

 

I think everyone knows the warmth is coming, but near the Lakes, its not like it will be a streak of 50's days on end.  I'd say it will feel like an extension of November-like warmth with temps in the 40's for most days, the next couple days in the upper 30's (avg). 

December 1931 was +7.4° here in Grand Rapids and while much above average that December year had 11 days with highs in the 30’s 15 days with highs in the 40’s and 5 days with highs in the 50’s.  So even a much above average winter month in the Great Lakes area can be still on the cold and damp side. 

[jaster220]

Stormy, I can see. Cold? Not at all, sorry...

 

Doesn't matter really. We're slowly "torching" our way into the history books, and all the entries are not about positive temp departures http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/whistling.gif