Jump to content

November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

Recommended Posts

Just watched Al Gore’s 10 minute segment on global warming for the first time since we were all posting at the Old Farmers Almanac forum. Who here believes our natural climate cycle is still in power over man-made global warming? I’m curious to hear from you, and your argument over CO2/TEMPERATURE relationship. 

 

There is certainly a relationship. I think natural cycles are still ultimately in power, but they are being severely modified thanks to greenhouse gases.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to some in this thread, considering there are 7+ billion people on Earth, crop failure isn't a global disaster.

 

Both significant warming and cooling of the climate could potentially be bad for food supply.

 

Although if you are only measuring the possible effects of AGW by the "How many months a year can I go outside in shorts and a tank top in a given climate?" metric then I've got nothing but good news for you!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good stuff:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=332

 

Locations in Europe and North America absolutely blowing away late season warmth records this month so far. 

 

Almost exactly 1 year ago, locations in this area were blowing away early season cold records. But a lot has changed since then...

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Almost exactly 1 year ago, locations in this area were blowing away early season cold records. But a lot has changed since then...

 

 

You mean the weather goes in cycles??   Strange.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both significant warming and cooling of the climate could potentially be bad for food supply.

 

Although if you are only measuring the possible effects of AGW by the "How many months a year can I go outside in shorts and a tank top in a given climate?" metric then I've got nothing but good news for you!

 

 

Predictable.

 

Eh, yep.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everything in the universe is technically cyclical.

When it all ends it will probably just be the start of another Big Bang.

 

But in the mean time we are in the here and now and should try to live in a way that is respectful of other living things and future generations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the Earth is truly warming (for whatever reason) then this is a great place to be on the planet. If we go into a period of global cooling and our summer is just a miserable continuation of our winter (i.e. damp and chilly) then we will just move.

 

I don't control what happens to the Earth. We can do everything right and still billions of people in the rest of the world will continue to make a mess.

 

Just have to go with the flow. We are only here for a short time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z GFS is a little different. Rain is farther north on Friday and then much farther south on Saturday. Much more reasonable in terms of heavy rain. And quicker to cool down meaning better for the mountains.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z GFS is a little different. Rain is farther north on Friday and then much farther south on Saturday. Much more reasonable in terms of heavy rain. And quicker to cool down meaning better for the mountains.

Early next week looks slightly wet though:

 

wet.gif

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both significant warming and cooling of the climate could potentially be bad for food supply.

 

Although if you are only measuring the possible effects of AGW by the "How many months a year can I go outside in shorts and a tank top in a given climate?" metric then I've got nothing but good news for you!

Yeah, but warming has more benefits than significant cooling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting to look like the +PNA ridge will make a showing the second half of the month.  Tim will be happy. 

 

 

If the 00Z ECMWF is correct... almost everyone living within 500 miles will be happy.

 

About 4 feet of rain before that ridge gets here.   If its correct then drier ridging is about the only solution possible.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111100!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weren't you doubting the upcoming stormy period a week or so ago based off a single Euro run?

 

The Euro shows ridging at the end too. That will probably be it for our 2-3 week cool (average) and wet period. That seems to be about the best we can do lately. Now the end is already in sight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro shows ridging at the end too. That will probably be it for our 2-3 week cool (average) and wet period. That seems to be about the best we can do lately. Now the end is already in sight.

You do realize weather patterns tend to cycle in 2 to 3 week increments, don't you? It's okay if you don't. Everyone has to start somewhere.

  • Like 2

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You do realize weather patterns tend to cycle in 2 to 3 week increments, don't you? It's okay if you don't. Everyone has to start somewhere.

 

Interesting set up evolving on the Euro in the extended. Massive east coast block with +PNA. Funny to see the trough in the Plains getting cut off like that. Likely would reset the jet pattern and return to zonal, which is always a good sign. No idea why Jesse is throwing in the towel when that pattern is basically begging to change. +PNA patterns never have longevity alongside a +NAO. The +PNA/-NAO pattern is much more stable and long lasting (see the last two winters). If anything, seeing +PNA pop up with +NAO is great news: means the shot for a -PNA pattern emerges.

 

This November has had a very dynamic jet so far, which is great news for the winter. I'm sure everyone here is begging for variability. Anything is better than being locked in an unfavorable pattern.

 

Now, the real trouble this winter is going to be the AO... super El Nino years typically have a +AO. But I've definitely been impressed by the jet so far this fall: very dynamic, which is atypical for El Nino. We really are heading into unchartered territory with the Pacific warmth we're seeing right now.

 

But it is really silly to think that late November is the only time the PNW can see cold and snow. It's actually a baffling statement. But, this is likely not the year for lots of snow and cold, given El Nino climo; however, that doesn't mean a snow storm or two can't be in the cards. It just means the overall, dominant pattern likely won't be favorable. One amazing storm can be worth it, even if the winter overall is warm and dry.

 

If anything, this El Nino should be a sigh of relief to the region. The role of El Nino is to redistribute ocean heat. Given the Blob has been a menace on the North American climate over the last couple of years, this reset is exactly what the PNW needs to start looking forward to a change.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro shows ridging at the end too. That will probably be it for our 2-3 week cool (average) and wet period. That seems to be about the best we can do lately. Now the end is already in sight.

OH -- how remember the heated, tyraid, profanity-laced, hate emails you used to send me when I made post just like this in Jan or February... Honestly, I do not have a problem with your Post but it is amazing how things have changed. *rolls eyes*.  Stay thirsty my friend, as we have a lot of winter left and at least we have more active pattern and/or the potential of something interesting and it's not the end of February (yet) --- Cheers. :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny...we've been running warm and dry overall for a lot longer than 2-3 weeks!

 

If there is a week of incredible cold and snow, sandwiched in by exceptional warm and dry weeks, would you say that there was no weather pattern cycle?

 

Just because there have been more frequent dry and warm cycles does not mean that it will always be warm and dry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GFS stuck to its guns and went with the much faster front early in the weekend... compared to previous runs which had the moisture plume stuck over WA for about 3 days.

 

And the 12Z Canadian has now come aboard as well.

 

We will see if the ECMWF actually caves to the other models within what is now pretty much the short range.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GFS stuck to its guns and went with the much faster front early in the weekend... compared to previous runs which had the moisture plume stuck over WA for about 3 days.

 

And the 12Z Canadian has now come aboard as well.

 

We will see if the ECMWF actually caves to the other models within what is now pretty much the short range.

12z only has about 30 hours of high snow levels (Thursday afternoon till Friday evening.)

 

Gobs of mountain snow early next week too.

 

That would be so much better.

  • Like 2

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 199

      May 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 199

      May 2024 Observations and Discussion

    3. 199

      May 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 199

      May 2024 Observations and Discussion

    5. 2663

      May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

×
×
  • Create New...