November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Turkey, stuffing, snow, temps below freezing, football, not having to travel anywhere for work next week...sounds perfect!!! The forum is going to be quite busy!

[Gradient Keeper]

Everyone is getting way to carried away lol

But, but, but it's fun! Yeah, 2 more days of solid model/ensemble agreement no wavering and then I'll get carried away. We'd see pattern change begin by day 2-3 upstream by then and the goodies would move into the believable range.

[bainbridgekid]

The Euro has 850's of -13 for SEA and -11 for PDX for Thanksgiving morning.

[TT-SEA]

The Euro has 850's of -13 for SEA and -11 for PDX for Thanksgiving morning.

 

 

Sounds sort of like 2010.    Our pipe to the outside water faucet broke on the morning of Thanksgiving in 2010.   Tough day of cooking without water!   We actually used melted snow.  

[stuffradio]

Sounds sort of like 2010.    Our pipe to the outside water faucet broke on the morning of Thanksgiving in 2010.   Tough day of cooking without water!   We actually used melted snow.  

I think 2010 was the year we got screwed up here, where you all down there got lots of snow and we were left high and dry.

[bainbridgekid]

I think 2010 was the year we got screwed up here, where you all down there got lots of snow and we were left high and dry.

Pretty much.

 

Bellingham lucked out and got 4" on the 19th, but most Northern areas totally missed out with the big storm on the 22nd that practically shut down Seattle. I'm sure you got several inches with the overrunning event on Thanksgiving day though, but that was short lived.

 

11/22/10 is still the most impressive combination of cold, snow, and wind I've ever seen. 3 days without power on Bainbridge with legitimate blizzard conditions. It was amazing.

[Snowman5678]

12z ECMWF Total snowfall.

12z GFS isn't bad either.

Overall still way too early. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much.

 

Bellingham lucked out and got 4" on the 19th, but most Northern areas totally missed out with the big storm on the 22nd that practically shut down Seattle. I'm sure you got several inches with the overrunning event on Thanksgiving day though, but that was short lived.

 

11/22/10 is still the most impressive combination of cold, snow, and wind I've ever seen. 3 days without power on Bainbridge with legitimate blizzard conditions. It was amazing.

 

 

And you just jinxed the whole thing of facebook!    

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty much.

 

Bellingham lucked out and got 4" on the 19th, but most Northern areas totally missed out with the big storm on the 22nd that practically shut down Seattle. I'm sure you got several inches with the overrunning event on Thanksgiving day though, but that was short lived.

 

11/22/10 is still the most impressive combination of cold, snow, and wind I've ever seen. 3 days without power on Bainbridge with legitimate blizzard conditions. It was amazing.

We saw 11.5" on the night of the 19th here. Outflow enhancement really got cranking that night if I remember correctly. There were some impressive snowfall rates. Ended up with 15.5" for the entire event.

[bainbridgekid]

And you just jinxed the whole thing of facebook!    

Everybody knows the jinx is softened when you start with "still a lot of time for things to change .  . ." 

[Deweydog]

Very un-Novemberish setup for cold - if the models are indeed settling in.

[stuffradio]

We saw 11.5" on the night of the 19th here. Outflow enhancement really got cranking that night if I remember correctly. There were some impressive snowfall rates. Ended up with 15.5" for the entire event.

That was on the island though.

[catnip]

That was on the island though.

Hopefully this doesn't go the way of the last few outbreaks, cold and dry. We just can't seem to get the cold and moisture together lately.

[ShawniganLake]

That was on the island though.

Yes. We are a northern area though. Same latitude as Bellingham.

[catnip]

We saw 11.5" on the night of the 19th here. Outflow enhancement really got cranking that night if I remember correctly. There were some impressive snowfall rates. Ended up with 15.5" for the entire event.

Stop bragging!!!!! Lol

 

[TT-SEA]

That D**n Canadian!! Always trying to mess with our hopes... Someone had mentioned how it lead the way in previous years. I do remover this numerous times. It takes about 2 or 3 days and models Started to cave and follow it. I hope this is not the case (again)

 

 

Sometimes the Canadian is the only model offering hope!   

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF ensemble mean is pretty good... but everything is shifted east of the operational run.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!192!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2015111812!!chart.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Yes. We are a northern area though. Same latitude as Bellingham.

Yeah my comment about Northern areas missing out was in reference to the storm on the 22nd which basically hit from about Chehalis to Mt. Vernon.

[Gradient Keeper]

ECMWF ensemble mean is pretty good... but everything is shifted east of the operational run.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!192!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2015111812!!chart.gif

Yeah, they were fairly good, but the trough doesn't dig quite as far offshore/southwest over us as the Operational did, so not quite as cold with 850mb mean temp showing around -7c PDX, and also far more progressive with the pattern moving the block east sooner. It still looks chilly to cold through day 8-9. 850mb temps stay fairly chilly through day 10 Gorge east, so a Cold Pool over the Columbia Basin would persist and that could as well keep a cold east wind going. That's certainly possible. My main concern IF this busts is the trough sliding southeastward across WA/southern BC into MT/ID and we never see much cold air. I hate to even type this, but I'm realistic. Even when we see all of these really cold runs/ensembles they don't mean much until we're 3-4 days out. Onto 00z!!!

[Abbotsford_wx]

The pattern shown on the 12z ECMWF reminds me of early Feb 2014... a crushing disappointment up here, but amazing down south. Of course it's way too early to say if it will play out the same.

[Gradient Keeper]

The pattern shown on the 12z ECMWF reminds me of early Feb 2014... a crushing disappointment up here, but amazing down south. Of course it's way too early to say if it will play out the same.

I'd certainly take a repeat of that.

[HighlandExperience]

I'd certainly take a repeat of that.

As I recall that sucked for Puget Sound area.

[Front Ranger]

You can't be this stupid. I was obviously describing the specific GFS run in discussion at the time, not making a forecast. Go back and read the f**king discussion, then explain how you could possibly interpret that post any other way.

 

Of course, you knew that all along. You thrive on conflict, you're great at taking posts out of context, and you're constantly putting words in peoples' mouths. I'm not in the mood to put up with your backhanded bulls**t.

 

Ok. It wasn't obvious to me and probably some others that you were only talking about the outcome of that run, as you often make statements like that not pertaining to a specific fun. I believe you.

 

Take a step back...

[MikeInEverett]

Being in the Puget Sound February 2014 still sucks to think about how much we missed.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Ok. It wasn't obvious to me and probably some others that you were only talking about the outcome of that run, as you often make statements like that not pertaining to a specific fun. I believe you.

 

Take a step back...

I honestly totally understood what Phil was saying in the first place.

[Front Ranger]

If the 12z Euro were to verify, I'd see colder temps while in OR next week than I've seen so far this fall in CO.

[Front Ranger]

I honestly totally understood what Phil was saying in the first place.

 

Cool. He still had no right to go Mt. St. Helens on me. Mods be busy, I suppose...

[HighlandExperience]

Being in the Puget Sound February 2014 still sucks to think about how much we missed.

 

I hope we don't experience that again for a loooong time. All that cold weather wasted.

[Deweydog]

It's always heartwarming when a guy in Colorado and a guy in Maryland are bickering in a PNW weather forum. We're so special.

[High Desert Mat]

I'd certainly take a repeat of that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gunna get cold.

[High Desert Mat]

I'd definitely take a repeat of that. I had highs over here in Redmond in the single digits for a few days, lows in -20's, and 34" of snow. Incredible.

[Phil]

Cool. He still had no right to go Mt. St. Helens on me. Mods be busy, I suppose...

I apologize for my overreaction, but that conversation was very straightforward. You're a smart guy with a strong grasp of the English language, so it makes no sense to me that you could take that post so blatantly out of context.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z may be a tad colder than the 12z. 

[Front Ranger]

It's always heartwarming when a guy in Colorado and a guy in Maryland are bickering in a PNW weather forum. We're so special.

 

At least we were bickering about PNW weather.

[Front Ranger]

SCORE!!!

[MikeInEverett]

And it leaves Seattle with no snow haha

[Gradient Keeper]

18z may be a tad colder than the 12z. 

Yeah certainly was colder. Would you believe me if I said I wasn't sitting here anxiously awaiting the 18z? Nah. Analyzing each and every model ran can be a bit exhausting. Besides, it is the 18z ...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At this point its looking pretty dry and cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles - Portland
The 18z? Yeah, I know, but the Ensembles can be useful and utilized. Speaking of, the trend the GFS has been showing continues. Coldest Ensembles yet. Mean temp down to -13c. I also am noticing the cluster of members -10c to -15c are starting to narrow meaning less spread and improved agreement converging on a cold solution. We don't see the mean temp reach 0c until December 1st. Depending on surface flow assuming we have cold east wind blowing we may not moderate until December begins. That is speculating on such fine details beyond day 10 though. 500mb anomaly looks pretty darn good. Omega block holds through day 9-10 trough remains carved out over us only moving a little to the east. You gotta love this cold trend! Let's keep it going with 00z tonight and see the ECMWF trend this way!