November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Currently 34.8 and clear up here in Mission B.C. my low/high today: 26.6/41.0

[IbrChris]

The Euro is the mildest model currently for next week showing a high of 48 at PDX on Thanksgiving...lows also closer to 30-32 probably due to a bit of mixing overnight and of course the UHI. Could conceivably avoid a hard freeze at the airport during this event. Ensembles suggest the possibility of mid 20s however, CMC being coldest and hanging onto upper 30s/low-mid 20s for temps Thurs-Sun next week.

As far as snow I don't see much chance this time around. Might be able to get wet bulb zero to the valley floor late Tue/very early Wed morning as precip is ending. Those of us who see a skiff below 1000' should consider ourselves lucky IMO.

Back to the regularly scheduled programming to start Dec (temps close to normal and a more progressive pattern).

[Jesse]

NWS is betting on it (32 for PDX). Not sure they'll manage though as they may stay mixed with the east winds. Mid 30s should be doable though.

I don't live at PDX.

[Timmy]

I don't live at PDX.

I just noticed you moved, not that you were at pdx before, must be rough missing out on all the gorge snow.

[IbrChris]

I don't live at PDX.

Great, thanks for sharing that piece of trivia. Interestingly enough the official Portland weather obs are taken there.

 

I will say at my location halfway up the N side of Bull Mtn my low temps tend to be 5+ degrees milder than HIO on clear nights and more similar to PDX. For instance my low this morning was 36, PDX was 37 and HIO 30. I suspect I'll have frost tonight.

[Jesse]

I just noticed you moved, not that you were at pdx before, must be rough missing out on all the gorge snow.

I was out there during a historically bad stretch of winters, but events like February 2014 and last November were pretty cool. There actually weren't a ton of occasions when there was a huge snow gradient between that area and the Portland metro during our time living there, though.

 

Overall I liked the climate out there, but in the future I would probably prefer somewhere with a little higher elevation and more wind sheltered. The wind would absolutely scream for days on end even in a "benign" winter pattern. Not a great spot for radiational cooling.

 

Somewhere like Trout Lake or the Upper Hood River Valley (Parkdale) has a far superior climate to Stevenson, IMO. Although maybe my viewpoint was warped since I saw relatively few notable snow events in my two and a half years out there.

[bainbridgekid]

Had my first real hard frost this morning and it lasted most of the day in the shade. Another teacher who just moved from Florida was convinced it had snowed.

 

36 degrees and dropping now and I'm getting in the dunk dank at the school carnival at 7:00. Gonna be rough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I haven't had a big snow gradient with the valley since December of 2012, which was actually a pretty snowy month up here. Then there are years like 2011-12 when I had nearly 100" on the season and Salem had about 5".

[Deweydog]

I had a lot of snow at my house in December 2007 or 2008. I can't remember which one it was.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Euro is the mildest model currently for next week showing a high of 48 at PDX on Thanksgiving...lows also closer to 30-32 probably due to a bit of mixing overnight and of course the UHI. Could conceivably avoid a hard freeze at the airport during this event. Ensembles suggest the possibility of mid 20s however, CMC being coldest and hanging onto upper 30s/low-mid 20s for temps Thurs-Sun next week.

 

As far as snow I don't see much chance this time around. Might be able to get wet bulb zero to the valley floor late Tue/very early Wed morning as precip is ending. Those of us who see a skiff below 1000' should consider ourselves lucky IMO.

 

Back to the regularly scheduled programming to start Dec (temps close to normal and a more progressive pattern).

 

I think a quick 2" Monday evening/night is a pretty good bet at my location. The 18z was pretty bullish for snow up here throughout the day Tuesday, but was the first run to do so. 

[IbrChris]

Dec 25, 2001 I recall it was pretty chilly at my house. High of 5 and low of -12. Coldest Christmas I have experienced to date. I've experienced 11 white Christmases (considering 1" or more snow on the ground as a white Christmas). The only one in the PNW was Dec 1990.

[IbrChris]

I think a quick 2" Monday evening/night is a pretty good bet at my location. The 18z was pretty bullish for snow up here throughout the day Tuesday, but was the first run to do so. 

 

Yeah that wouldn't surprise me in the least up there at 1600'. Timmy will probably pick up a bit too.

[Dave]

I haven't had a big snow gradient with the valley since December of 2012, which was actually a pretty snowy month up here. Then there are years like 2011-12 when I had nearly 100" on the season and Salem had about 5".

Were you there for 2008?  I heard that the snow depth got to 7 feet + in Detroit, which is absolutely astonishing.  The national guard was called in to help shovel off roofs.

[bainbridgekid]

Scott Sistek has a detailed writeup on the snow chances Monday night into Tuesday. Love the headline and it's a pretty reasonable take IMO.

 

Don't panic, Seattle: A little snow is in forecast for next week

 

SEATTLE -- Anytime the forecast mentions the word "snow" in the Seattle area, there is an instant, polarizing wave of emotions that sweeps over the city: Either euphoria at the thought of missed school and snowball fights, or dread over watching traffic turn into 4-wheeled games of Dodgeball.

But before you let those emotions totally consume you (probably too late based on the first seven words of this story) let's state this right away: It's not looking like that big of a deal.

Famous last words but this is not a classic widespread winter storm outbreak, instead it'll be more the case of what I call the "snow lottery": Many will hope to win, few will actually do so.

We're cold but sunny this weekend, so no worries there aside from morning black ice. A trough of low pressure is swinging through the area from the northwest on Monday -- that's all rain for the lowlands as we'll be in the 40s. But one the storm passes, chilly air will move in behind it from Alaska and B.C., dropping snow levels by late Monday to a few hundred feet above sea level. The problem for snow lovers is we'll be fast running out of moisture by the time the cold air gets here, so while it'll eventually be cold enough to snow, there won't be a whole lot left to make it snow.

That said, there are two hopes for you to get snow. The first is in the straggling, isolated showers that typically follow a weather system. That's the "snow lottery" I referred to: You just have to hope to get wet. The showers will be random in duration and location, but could bring a quick inch or so of wet snow. There will be a lot of you who lose, so no getting mad at the meteorologist saying "you promised it was going to snow at my house." I'm telling you now, we aren't. Odds of winning any prize are about 1 in 4.23, (but at least you don't have to be 18 to enter.)

The second hope is for those who live in the Puget Sound Convergence Zone. Yes, there is a trade-off for all those days after a weather system passes that you're still stuck in the rain when the rest of the region is sunny and this is one of them: You have a better chance of some snow Monday night. Some forecast models have occasionally indicated a convergence zone for late Monday night and Tuesday in its usual roosting spot between North Seattle and Everett. There is an added bonus to many communities along the King-Snohomish County line that you're at about 400-550 feet elevation, aiding in your snow chances. So those of you in Lynnwood/Alderwood, South Everett, Bothell, Mill Creek, Shoreline, and the Edmonds/Mukilteo areas that are up the hill away from the Puget Sound waterfront have a chance at about 1-2 inches of snow if the current pattern holds.

As Tuesday progresses, we're watching for another wave of arctic air to start to blow in from the Fraser River Valley (who had November 24 in the pool for when the Fraser winds would first appear?) Sometimes when the cold air begins to blow out of the Fraser Valley, that boundary of arctic air mixing with the relatively warm air in place it can create its own front -- an "arctic front" that can bring a dusting to 2" of snow across the region as the cold air spreads across Western Washington like spilled milk. This snow scenario is possible, but not common. Usually cold air arrives without much fanfare, precipitation wise, and so far the forecast models haven't picked up on any snow from that yet. So you'll probably read about that but it's a hedge, and so far I give low odds on that event. 

We'll just remain cold but clear Wednesday and Thursday as a chilly north wind continues to blow out of the Fraser River valley. Expect highs both days in the upper 30s to near 40 with lows in the 20s.

Potentially icy Thanksgiving travel in the mornings/late nights is probably what should be the biggest weather challenge to the region next week, but it is Seattle, and there is a four letter 's' word in the forecast.

 

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Dont-panic-Seattle-A-little-lowland-snow-is-in-forecast-for-next-week-352305541.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Were you there for 2008?  I heard that the snow depth got to 7 feet + in Detroit, which is absolutely astonishing.  The national guard was called in to help shovel off roofs.

 

Unfortunately no, I was still living in Oklahoma at that time. I know Silver Falls had a 47" snow depth on 1/31/08 which was their 3rd deepest snow depth on record. I usually get a little more snow than the park. 

 

Then in December 2008 they set their record December depth at 32". I moved up here in 2011. My deepest snow depth was 25" on 1/17/2012.

 

Top 5 snow depths at the park are

 

1) Feb 1, 1969 51"

2) Jan 31, 1950 50"

3) Jan 31, 2008 47"

4) March, 1951 35"

5) December 25, 2008 32"

 

Snow data is spotty at the park so it wouldn't surprise me if there are a couple other events that beat March 1951 or Dec. 08. 

[Jesse]

I think a quick 2" Monday evening/night is a pretty good bet at my location. The 18z was pretty bullish for snow up here throughout the day Tuesday, but was the first run to do so.

I would just ignore that post. It was his attempt at trolling me for saying there would be a hard freeze tonight.

[IbrChris]

I would just ignore that post. It was his attempt at trolling me for saying there would be a hard freeze tonight.

Aww...hope I didn't hurt them feels. Being that I live less than a mile from the top of Bull Mtn I seriously doubt you will see a hard freeze (definition of which is a low of 28 or below). That's not trolling, it's reality.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Someday I will retire or move to the gorgeous little town of Joseph, Oregon. Currently 11 degrees after a high of 29 today. 

[IbrChris]

Jesse should have taken Nick Allard's slot at KGW being he is so gosh darn knowledgeable about PDX Portland microclimates. Instead we get a pretentious dude from Las Vegas with no meteorology background. Nothing could go wrong there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Josephoregonweather.com is a great site and they have 2 live cams with gorgeous views across the valley to the Wallowa Mountains. 18 of Oregon's 30 highest peaks are in the Wallowas. 

[Brennan]

• Scott Sistek is great! Seth Wayne, meh.

[IbrChris]

Josephoregonweather.com is a great site and they have 2 live cams with gorgeous views across the valley to the Wallowa Mountains. 18 of Oregon's 30 highest peaks are in the Wallowas. 

Weren't the Wallowas geologically part of the Central Idaho mountains but were split by Hells Canyon carved by the Snake River? I know the Seven Devils on the Idaho side look fairly similar and are of a similar elevation.

 

The Wallowas and the Elkhorns definitely have more of a Rockies look to them versus the generally gentler Cascades.

[HighlandExperience]

Weren't the Wallowas geologically part of the Central Idaho mountains but were split by Hells Canyon carved by the Snake River? I know the Seven Devils on the Idaho side look fairly similar and are of a similar elevation.

 

The Wallowas and the Elkhorns definitely have more of a Rockies look to them versus the generally gentler Cascades.

North cascades blow all of those out of the water in terms of ruggedness

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Funny you should mention Parkdale.  Way back more than 20 years ago, I first became interested in the PNW and its weather, and after much research, determined that Parkdale had the ideal climate to sate my weather-weenie desires.  I even looked into buying property and building my dream house there.  However, I reluctantly concluded that perhaps there were other factors in addition to the weather that ought to be taken into account when selecting a place to live, so I eventually settled on Eugene.

 

IMO you can't go wrong with Eugene. 

[snow_wizard]

Model trends have been decent today.  The 18z GFS was the best looking run in a couple of days for that model and the ECMWF ensemble has been trending steadily colder the past few runs.  Even though 850s only drop to -7 or -8 for Seattle the pattern is perfect for maximizing the potential for cold readings at the surface.

[snow_wizard]

IMO you can't go wrong with Eugene. 

 

 

Eugene is kind of due for some bad luck.  It seems they have been extremely lucky compared to most lowland locations in recent years (in relation to normal).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is kind of due for some bad luck.  It seems they have been extremely lucky compared to most lowland locations in recent years (in relation to normal).

 

Except for rainfall. They are running a serious 3 year drought. 

 

It is a beautiful town though, it really is. The McKenzie River corridor is amazing and there is some gorgeous pastoral land to the north and south of town. Just an hour from the highly underrated Central Oregon coast, the great atmosphere the college brings to town, I could definitely live there. The drive from Albany to Eugene is one of my favorite stretches of highway in W. Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is kind of due for some bad luck.  It seems they have been extremely lucky compared to most lowland locations in recent years (in relation to normal).

 

Yeah, their -10 on 12/8/13 was pretty ridiculous. They got nailed by the snowstorms in February 2014 and December 2013. 

 

The interesting thing about the February 2014 event is that they were right on the edge. 20-30 miles south of Eugene temps were in the 50s and even low 60s during the height of the event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I love the NAM and its cold bias...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif

[Jesse]

North cascades blow all of those out of the water in terms of ruggedness

Wallowas are the closest thing Oregon has got to the North Cascades. They are fairly rugged but the North Cascades ultimately do have them beat.

 

And to answer the earlier question, yes, the Wallowas are geologically related to the Seven Devils Mountains in Idaho. They pre-date Hell's Canyon.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, their -10 on 12/8/13 was pretty ridiculous. They got nailed by the snowstorms in February 2014 and December 2013. 

 

The interesting thing about the February 2014 event is that they were right on the edge. 20-30 miles south of Eugene temps were in the 50s and even low 60s during the height of the event. 

 

Astounding!  If I remember they also did very well in March 2012.  They have really kicked a** and historically they don't get nearly as much snow as Seattle.

[snow_wizard]

Unfortunately no, I was still living in Oklahoma at that time. I know Silver Falls had a 47" snow depth on 1/31/08 which was their 3rd deepest snow depth on record. I usually get a little more snow than the park. 

 

Then in December 2008 they set their record December depth at 32". I moved up here in 2011. My deepest snow depth was 25" on 1/17/2012.

 

Top 5 snow depths at the park are

 

1) Feb 1, 1969 51"

2) Jan 31, 1950 50"

3) Jan 31, 2008 47"

4) March, 1951 35"

5) December 25, 2008 32"

 

Snow data is spotty at the park so it wouldn't surprise me if there are a couple other events that beat March 1951 or Dec. 08. 

 

 

It just blows my mind that two of those are so recent. That coming at the same time the Puget Sound region has basically sucked balls with the exception of Dec 2008.  Even that month was nowhere near the standards of many past events.

[snow_wizard]

I love the NAM and its cold bias...

 

 

Maybe it will actually verify one of these times!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, their -10 on 12/8/13 was pretty ridiculous. They got nailed by the snowstorms in February 2014 and December 2013. 

 

The interesting thing about the February 2014 event is that they were right on the edge. 20-30 miles south of Eugene temps were in the 50s and even low 60s during the height of the event. 

 

Eugene has actually done very well compared to SEA and PDX over the past 10 years with winter weather. They scored a couple inches of snow in November 2006 when most places in W. Oregon didn't do so well (I know many places in W. Washington did great with that event.). They had a significant snowstorm in January 2008 as well. They also did okay in November 2010 and Feb 2011 when Salem and PDX got hosed. They they had the 8" snowstorm in March 2012 as well as 1-2" of snow in Dec. 2012 even. 

 

The one event they didn't do great in was the December 2008 snows. Just south of Salem was the cutoff for that. However, they did do well with the initial shot on Dec. 14th with about 4-6" of snow and then hit single digits in the following nights. They also hit 17 in October 2002 and 2006. 

[Dave]

Astounding!  If I remember they also did very well in March 2012.  They have really kicked a** and historically they don't get nearly as much snow as Seattle.

Yes, recently we've done well compared to our PNW neighbors.  However, we got completely shafted in Dec 2008.  Two brief snowfalls of 3" each while Seattle and Portland had their biggest dumps in decades.

 

I would easily trade our recent luck for Portland 2008 snow depth and duration.

[BLI snowman]

Eugene has actually done very well compared to SEA and PDX over the past 10 years with winter weather. They scored a couple inches of snow in November 2006 when most places in W. Oregon didn't do so well (I know many places in W. Washington did great with that event.). They had a significant snowstorm in January 2008 as well. They also did okay in November 2010 and Feb 2011 when Salem and PDX got hosed. They they had the 8" snowstorm in March 2012 as well as 1-2" of snow in Dec. 2012 even. 

 

The one event they didn't do great in was the December 2008 snows. Just south of Salem was the cutoff for that. However, they did do well with the initial shot on Dec. 14th with about 4-6" of snow and then hit single digits in the following nights. They also hit 17 in October 2002 and 2006. 

 

Eugene got owned pretty badly in 2010-11 actually, highs in the mid 30s and not really any snow in the city area. The big storm of January 17-18, 2012 also cut off to the north, accumulations occurred from about Tualatin north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. Down to 6 at Joseph, OR. What a great town!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene got owned pretty badly in 2010-11 actually, highs in the mid 30s and not really any snow in the city area. The big storm of January 17-18, 2012 also cut off to the north, accumulations occurred from about Tualatin north.

 

They must have had some snow in November 2010 as there were snow piles in the parking lots at Autzen stadium when I was at the Ducks game the day after Thanksgiving. Also they had some light accumulations in town with the cold onshore flow in January 2012. 

 

Corvallis scored bigtime in February 2011. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Granted some of my Eugene recollections are courtesy of my brother who lives in S. Eugene, hence a couple hundred feet off the valley floor. 

[TT-SEA]

Wow. Down to 7 at Joseph, OR. What a great town!

Too cold. That is just annoying.