Stuck at 36 and nothing but rain. This one sure fizzled into nothing fast. NWS FSD says there a chance for 1-2 inches after the changeover in a couple hours but I'm doubtful.

I really want to have rose colored glasses, but the main thing I see at the end of the 12Z cycle is split flow setting up. I would be over the moon if I saw this and still lived in the Upper Midwest.

Looks like GEPS. This timeline is looking good.

I think that’s what you would expect with a long range ensemble mean because the ENSO state is the only thing that has predictive value at that time range. The individual members are just a random mess of spaghetti. I wonder if they would even have positive skill scores if the ENSO signal is removed.

The 12z AI looks really promising. I think we could be in business by Jan 20 or even a little bit sooner. No doubt a big pattern change is coming though.