That could be, but we really haven't been in a Nina this winter until about now. Mostly it's just neutral.

Perhaps with long range, as in months out forecasts, but I've never seen evidence in cases like this. The fact is that though we saw some improvements in the mid-January period a week or so ago, we never saw the models latching onto the kind of consistent signal we are seeing now. This is the kind of signal we saw in 2023 and 2019.

I know others have mentioned this but i'm pretty convinced that any long range forecast is just pulling historical trends associated with ENSO and not really factoring in any meaningful present condition or trend.

Sunny and a very mild 46 here at this time. I went for a walk and the pond to the west of me is now ice free. That is unusual for late December.

Euro AIFS much further south with 12z run compared to 06z run. 06z 12z