This is a super important and underrated point. The ensemble mean very often does not tell the full story. You could have 50% of the members showing a polar vortex lobe rotating right over Puget Sound, but if the other 50% of the members show a death ridge that puts the 2021 heat dome to shame, then the mean isn't going to look particularly interesting. There's a ton of insight to be gained from looking at the individual member view of any ensemble suite.

the expectations of a Block Buster winter is what really burns the most.

Winners

It doesn't really get any better than that at 2 weeks out. If (and when) the EPS gets there we are in business. The GEFS just seems to be more volatile than the EPS.