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August 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#101
james1976

Posted 04 August 2017 - 04:39 AM

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Yeah we had low 50s this morning. Very nice out there!

#102
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 05:06 AM

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Anyone out west hear of any places tying or setting new record low temps???  I'm sure there were a few places out in NE/SD/ND...KC tied a record low this morning of 52F!



#103
james1976

Posted 04 August 2017 - 05:21 AM

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Anyone out west hear of any places tying or setting new record low temps??? I'm sure there were a few places out in NE/SD/ND...KC tied a record low this morning of 52F!

Literally just heard on local radio station that some places in C IA hit record lows in the mid 40s!
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#104
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 05:39 AM

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Literally just heard on local radio station that some places in C IA hit record lows in the mid 40s!

That's what I expected to here!  As I write this, the systems rotating stratus deck just came through and it looks like early October out there.  People walking around the neighborhood with light jackets & hoodies.  

 

On a side note, Al Gore is on our local Fox News channel "pumping" his new movie "An Inconvenient Sequel" and discussing a new term called "rain bombs"...LOL...where the heck does he get this stuff from??!!  Rain bombs, come on man...quit freaking people out.  Just use the term Microburst, would ya??  He even used the flooding event from a couple weeks ago that happened here as an excuse to Global Warming.  I guess they will use any "natural" event to push their agenda.


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#105
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 05:49 AM

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@ Okwx, you enjoying the pleasant weather down there???  I'm sure IFred is at least enjoying the low 90's....looks like you may be cooling off quite a bit early next week with low 80's and rain chances.

 

 

MonthTDeptNWSSR.png


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#106
jaster220

Posted 04 August 2017 - 06:05 AM

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:o Plus a very raw easterly wind = pass (in Aug)

 

 

NWS sticking with a 72F high for Marshall, and no mention of a midnight high with temps falling. Hunch is they're not into the pre-autumn autumn pattern :wacko:

 

Takes GRR a bit to get on board..they often play catch-up on impending winter storms so this shouldn't surprise.. :rolleyes:

 

 

 

I think both early and late chills with warm, dry and boring in the middle. I'm happy to be enjoying my last day above 85 for the next week to 10 days at least. Augtember weather. Lol.

 

Definitely has that feel along the shoreline this morning!

 

 

If this transpires, it would be one of the coolest August's the nation as a whole would endure in over a decade...

 

 

DGVz-gdUQAAHSjD.jpg

 

Trying to remember which August was the last "cool" one?? Did you have one in mind? 2003 perhaps?


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#107
NEJeremy

Posted 04 August 2017 - 07:22 AM

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That's what I expected to here!  As I write this, the systems rotating stratus deck just came through and it looks like early October out there.  People walking around the neighborhood with light jackets & hoodies.  

 

On a side note, Al Gore is on our local Fox News channel "pumping" his new movie "An Inconvenient Sequel" and discussing a new term called "rain bombs"...LOL...where the heck does he get this stuff from??!!  Rain bombs, come on man...quit freaking people out.  Just use the term Microburst, would ya??  He even used the flooding event from a couple weeks ago that happened here as an excuse to Global Warming.  I guess they will use any "natural" event to push their agenda.

Yeah his "agenda" and the majority of the scientific world's agenda. Dumb scientists.

 

https://phys.org/new...es-century.html


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#108
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 08:15 AM

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Takes GRR a bit to get on board..they often play catch-up on impending winter storms so this shouldn't surprise.. :rolleyes:

 

attachicon.gif20170804 Marshall 4cast.PNG

 

 

 

Definitely has that feel along the shoreline this morning!

 

 

 

Trying to remember which August was the last "cool" one?? Did you have one in mind? 2003 perhaps?

2004???



#109
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 08:42 AM

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Yeah his "agenda" and the majority of the scientific world's agenda. Dumb scientists.

 

https://phys.org/new...es-century.html

This topic of convo is not only debatable, but it can get emotionally taxing due to one's beliefs. We can argue both sides until we turn blue in the face.  The only thing I can say is, I do believe in Climate Change, although, I don't necessarily believe in the root causes the AGW crowd pushes.  One thing for sure, we can Agree to Disagree!


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#110
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 09:05 AM

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@Jaster, looks like your place back home is still hanging on to the upper 50's!  That heavy overcast looks to hang on all day so I doubt temps rise much into the 60's today.  I think the skies have a chance of clearing up over here late afternoon but not expecting much temp rise.  Maybe mid 60's for daytime highs over here.  

 



#111
FarmerRick

Posted 04 August 2017 - 09:41 AM

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I think the GFS is broken...  :wacko:

 

qpf_012h.us_c.png



#112
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 August 2017 - 09:44 AM

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@Tom. I love this weather! This month has the potential to be cooler than any august I have ever lived through here except maybe '04 or '07. Either way. My favorite year to compare to here is 1977. There's a lot of August left though so we'll see how the last half goes.

77º with full sun at 1:00. Crazy August.
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#113
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 12:58 PM

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I think the GFS is broken...  :wacko:

 

qpf_012h.us_c.png

 

High Rez NAM keeps spitting out some ridiculous rainfall amounts near the KC region.  Could this be another flooding event for them???  Some one looks to get soaked!

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png



#114
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 01:02 PM

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Water Spout season has begun!  These shots were taken near Buffalo, NY on Lake Erie...

 

DGZlRleXgAEfOYp.jpg

 

DGZlRlYXYAAW5n_.jpg

 

 

 


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#115
Tom

Posted 04 August 2017 - 01:03 PM

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@ Jaster, did you see any water spouts near St. Jo??  This was taken off the shores in St. Joseph...

 

DGZEtiQXkAEcvRo.jpg



#116
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 August 2017 - 04:34 PM

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Wow. Those are awesome. I saw waterspouts when I was a kid visiting the Gulf for the first time. Haven't gotten to see another one since.
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#117
LNK_Weather

Posted 04 August 2017 - 05:26 PM

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https://twitter.com/...194912753225728

 

New CPC map format.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#118
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 August 2017 - 06:44 PM

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https://twitter.com/...194912753225728
 
New CPC map format.



Nice map. Lots of blue there.



Attached File  DGVDdbkU0AAwR-S.jpg   96.62KB   0 downloads

#119
Tom

Posted 05 August 2017 - 05:13 AM

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Nice map. Lots of blue there.



attachicon.gifDGVDdbkU0AAwR-S.jpg

I'm hearing the latest European Weeklies have the coolest temps over the next 45 days centered right over the central/southern Plains.  Right near you neck of the woods.

 

Here is the CFSv2 trend showing the last 15 runs for Sept's temp outlook...



#120
BrianJK

Posted 05 August 2017 - 05:43 AM

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Taking tomorrow out of the equation, forecast is sunny and low 80s for the next 7 days. That's what I'm talking about! Gorgeous summer conditions.
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#121
Tom

Posted 05 August 2017 - 05:44 AM

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After a brief taste of Autumn yesterday (that I didn't mind), it's now time to get out and soak up some of that vitamin D and delightful temps near 80F today!  The next 7-10 days look like perfection around these parts, except for tomorrow's cloudy/intermittent rains.  Today's wx looks exceptional.  Some high cirrus/debris clouds are rolling in from the west coming off of the heavy rains in NE/KS.  Filtered sunshine later today...not gonna complain.  Have a great Saturday.


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#122
jaster220

Posted 05 August 2017 - 06:34 AM

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@Jaster, looks like your place back home is still hanging on to the upper 50's!  That heavy overcast looks to hang on all day so I doubt temps rise much into the 60's today.  I think the skies have a chance of clearing up over here late afternoon but not expecting much temp rise.  Maybe mid 60's for daytime highs over here.

Left work @ 3:30 and stepped out to a strong wind driven shower! Too cloudy and nasty to see anything over the lake and as I headed inland the showers got heavier and my car thermo dropped to 55! 4 pm on Aug 4th had to bump the inside temp like it was suddenly Oct. More than 30 degs colder than my commute Wed!


  

@ Jaster, did you see any water spouts near St. Jo??  This was taken off the shores in St. Joseph...
 
DGZEtiQXkAEcvRo.jpg


Nice! Wish I could have seen one

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#123
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 August 2017 - 07:26 AM

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I'm hearing the latest European Weeklies have the coolest temps over the next 45 days centered right over the central/southern Plains.  Right near you neck of the woods.

 

Here is the CFSv2 trend showing the last 15 runs for Sept's temp outlook...

This is awesome! I would love a September first freeze. That hasn't happened in a while.

 

Yes I am a cold weather lover.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#124
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 August 2017 - 10:58 AM

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This is awesome! I would love a September first freeze. That hasn't happened in a while.

Yes I am a cold weather lover.


Most of us middle to south-central cold weather lovers haven't had much to enjoy in 30 months or so. Nearly every major longer range model trending colder as we go forward. I'm good with a cold September and early leaf change. It will be beautiful here.
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#125
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 August 2017 - 10:59 AM

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I'm hearing the latest European Weeklies have the coolest temps over the next 45 days centered right over the central/southern Plains. Right near you neck of the woods.

Here is the CFSv2 trend showing the last 15 runs for Sept's temp outlook...


Absolutely love it.

#126
james1976

Posted 05 August 2017 - 11:06 AM

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Love that CPC map!

#127
Tom

Posted 05 August 2017 - 11:17 AM

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This is awesome! I would love a September first freeze. That hasn't happened in a while.

 

Yes I am a cold weather lover.

 

Absolutely love it.

 

I'm starting to wonder if the ridging that has blossomed over the PAC NW & Western C.A. is any sort of indicator to the pattern going forward.  CFSv2 has it backing off somewhat Week 3 which opens the door to somewhat of a warm up around these parts, but then it grows back in as we head into Sept.  This could be an important piece to the Autumn puzzle if the waters near NW NAMER warm up substantially over the coming weeks.  I recall last year in the month of Sept, troughs began targeting the PAC NW coastline/British Columbia that ultimately pumped warmth for a lot of us in the Midwest/Plains/Lakes.  We saw a few 90's last year bc of that.

 

Going forward, I'm curious to see if the CFSv2 trends for Sept are legit or rather a "head fake".  The farther north in latitude you go, in the month of Sept, you begin to see signs of the new Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.


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#128
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 August 2017 - 11:29 AM

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I'm starting to wonder if the ridging that has blossomed over the PAC NW & Western C.A. is any sort of indicator to the pattern going forward. CFSv2 has it backing off somewhat Week 3 which opens the door to somewhat of a warm up around these parts, but then it grows back in as we head into Sept. This could be an important piece to the Autumn puzzle if the waters near NW NAMER warm up substantially over the coming weeks. I recall last year in the month of Sept, troughs began targeting the PAC NW coastline/British Columbia that ultimately pumped warmth for a lot of us in the Midwest/Plains/Lakes. We saw a few 90's last year bc of that.

Going forward, I'm curious to see if the CFSv2 trends for Sept are legit or rather a "head fake". The farther north in latitude you go, in the month of Sept, you begin to see signs of the new Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.


Hard to say either way. If we do warm up again towards the end of this month or into September's first week, I'm leaning towards it being the last really warm weather for quite awhile over the central US.

#129
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 August 2017 - 01:08 PM

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Hard to say either way. If we do warm up again towards the end of this month or into September's first week, I'm leaning towards it being the last really warm weather for quite awhile over the central US.

My goal is that I shouldn't have to turn on my A/C after the 2nd week of September. Definitely didn't achieve that last year, I turned mine on once in November.

10 day models starting to show a HUGE warmup, all the way to near normal.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#130
Tom

Posted 05 August 2017 - 01:11 PM

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Hard to say either way. If we do warm up again towards the end of this month or into September's first week, I'm leaning towards it being the last really warm weather for quite awhile over the central US.

Your gonna like this updated Week 3 & $ outlook from CPC...

 

WK34temp.gif



#131
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 August 2017 - 02:26 PM

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Lol. Yup. I'm pretty easy to figure out. Put a big blue "B" near me and I'm a pretty happy fella.
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#132
Tom

Posted 06 August 2017 - 07:25 AM

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I was out in Plano, IL last night visiting a friend who purchased an old farm from a WWII veteran that holds historic value.  It actually turned out to be a pretty big party with tons of great food, good music and overall a great atmosphere.  Not to mention, great bon fire wx and we had a monster bon fire going!  I absolutely love these weather conditions.  Trends over the next 10+ days still looking cooler than avg .  I hope it continues into the weekend of the Chicago Air & Water Show coming up on the 18th-20th.

 

 

In other news, Monarch Pass in CO had summer time snow on Aug 3rd!

 

http://www.9news.com...-pass/462042816


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#133
GDR

Posted 06 August 2017 - 01:01 PM

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Cfsv2 looks smokin warm and dry for most if not all of us this winter. Is it a sign of things to come?

#134
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 August 2017 - 04:11 PM

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Cfsv2 looks smokin warm and dry for most if not all of us this winter. Is it a sign of things to come?


Long range models should be taken for a grain of salt. One minor pattern change could drastically alter everything. Basically in my view, long range models are fun to look at, but that's all they are. Fun to look at.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#135
Hawkeye

Posted 06 August 2017 - 08:51 PM

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Today was expected to be cloudy and cool, but we ended up with all-day sun and upper 70s.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#136
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 05:08 AM

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Last year, the QBO was obviously one of the players on the field which deterred a cold winter for cold weather fans.  Since this April, changes began in the upper levels of the atmosphere and we saw the trend towards a negative state as we moved through the summer months through July.  Currently, we have a solid -QBO state through 40mb and approaching 50mb.  May end up being a mod/strong negative state through next Winter.

 

Here is where it was in Feb, but since, it has flipped negative where you see it positive (red).

 

 

DGn3asIUAAEKdZe.jpg



#137
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 05:27 AM

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KC had a record low high this past Saturday on Aug 5th and it had the coolest first week in the month of Aug that recorded low high temps.  That's pretty incredible.

 

 



#138
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 05:46 AM

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CFSv2 trends for the month continue to flip from a western N.A. trough, towards a ridge...downstream trough...of note, there may also be a signal of Greenland blocking to continue.  I wouldn't put much stock into the blocking yet bc that can flip rather quickly as the seasons change up that way.

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png



#139
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 06:05 AM

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NMME suggesting a hint of lower heights across the southern/eastern U.S. for Sept???  Active hurricane season???

 

 

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

 

 

Looks very wet along the coast line of GOM/East...

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_lead1.png

 

 

CFSv2...

 

CFSv2_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png

 

NASA...

 

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1.png


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#140
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 06:12 AM

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Another phenominal wx week on tap for Chitown...

 

DGoT4foXcAEVmC8.jpg


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#141
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 07:28 AM

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Pikes Peak, CO snow!  I remember visiting there during my childhood and driving up the winding roads that made me car sick.  Would like to go back and visit this place in the future.

 

http://denver.cbsloc..._medium=twitter



#142
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 07:32 AM

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I was going to wait a couple more days to post on this matter but by the middle of the week, both GFS/EURO are showing a vigorous Arctic storm over the Pole.  Odds are in favor that the annual decline in temps up there will start ahead of schedule this year.

 

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_4.png

 

DGoncmhVwAIiU8x.jpg


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#143
WBadgersW

Posted 07 August 2017 - 08:39 AM

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Pikes Peak, CO snow! I remember visiting there during my childhood and driving up the winding roads that made me car sick. Would like to go back and visit this place in the future.

http://denver.cbsloc..._medium=twitter


That's awesome! Might take a trip out there next summer.

#144
jaster220

Posted 07 August 2017 - 08:43 AM

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I was going to wait a couple more days to post on this matter but by the middle of the week, both GFS/EURO are showing a vigorous Arctic storm over the Pole.  Odds are in favor that the annual decline in temps up there will start ahead of schedule this year.

 

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_4.png

 

DGoncmhVwAIiU8x.jpg

 

Fidget Spinner snow shield :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#145
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 09:36 AM

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Water spout located offshore from Chicago this am...

 

 

 

DGoyc-1XsAAApxm.jpg

 

 

DGoyc-4XYAAY6U7.jpg


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#146
james1976

Posted 07 August 2017 - 09:44 AM

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I love the change of seasons. Cooler temps. Loss of daylight. Gets me in the mood. Only 25 days til Met Fall!
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#147
Tom

Posted 07 August 2017 - 09:45 AM

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Over the last month, check out the shift in SST anomalies in the NE PAC.  Notable changes along the NW NAMER coast as warmer waters have invaded the British Columbia coastline and the coldest waters N of Hawaii have maintained.  I wonder how much effect, if any, this will have as we roll on through Aug into Sept.  Will this promote more ridging???  To early to say for sure.

 

 

 

anomnight.7.6.2017.gif

 

 

 

 

anomnight.8.7.2017.gif



#148
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 August 2017 - 07:45 PM

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Awesome. Just the way I like it. Euro weeklies continue to advertise below-normal temps in the Midwest/Plains all throughout its range. I'm fairly outspoken about how much I don't pay attention to long range models, but boy chilly September mornings do feel nice right about now while I am still trapped in humid Houston for two more weeks.

 

Precip being advertised as at to slightly above normal throughout the range.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#149
james1976

Posted 08 August 2017 - 03:39 AM

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48° this morning! Perfection

#150
james1976

Posted 08 August 2017 - 03:44 AM

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DMX disco for Friday and beyond:

Friday and beyond...
High pressure looks to build into the upper Midwest by Saturday
afternoon...likely dropping down a slug of cooler air into Iowa
which should keep daytime temperatures in the 70s, and overnight
temperatures in the 50s across most of the state through the
weekend. Towards the end of the weekend, both the GFS and the
ECMWF have a deep upper low approaching the Pacific NW coast. The
long- range models diverge wildly after that, with the GFS
bringing the low onshore, weakening it, and pushing it across
southern Canada. The ECMWF, however, continues to deepen the low
and hangs it out over the northwestern CONUS. If the GFS solution
wins out, warmer temperatures into the 80s and 90s would be
plausible next week. If the ECMWF wins out, persistent
temperatures in the 70s and 80s seem more likely.