August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[wx_statman]

#solastyear

 

Didn't last winter qualify as a weak Nina? 

[TT-SEA]

Some significant rain on the 12Z ECMWF for the middle of next week...

 

[Jesse]

Euro is definitely less bullish about the warmth early next week than the GFS. Some GFS runs were spitting or temps near 90 Monday-Wednesday. The Euro has never shown anything like that. Cooling from the next trough starting by Tuesday on the latest run.

[BLI snowman]

Didn't last winter qualify as a weak Nina? 

 

Yes, albeit one of the weakest on record.

[BLI snowman]

Euro is definitely less bullish about the warmth early next week than the GFS. Some GFS runs were spitting or temps near 90 Monday-Wednesday. The Euro has never shown anything like that. Cooling from the next trough starting by Tuesday on the latest run.

 

12z GFS shows 80+ continuing until basically the 25th and 90+ on Tuesday.

[stuffradio]

Didn't last winter qualify as a weak Nina? 

Yes, for a couple months I think. If I remember rightly, it just barely qualified as a nina.

[Jesse]

12z GFS shows 80+ continuing until basically the 25th and 90+ on Tuesday.

Good shot at warmest August on record if that verified.

[wx_statman]

Yes, albeit one of the weakest on record.

 

I had to double check...we basically transitioned from a weak Nina to cold neutral during DJF. We can probably classify it as both. 

[wx_statman]

Yes, for a couple months I think. If I remember rightly, it just barely qualified as a nina.

 

Looking at the MEI bimonthly's, both DJ and JF were barely negative. Essentially no signal. At least the ONI's showed weak Nina conditions for NDJ...transitioning to cold neutral for DJF (-0.4). 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Seattle heat doesn't feel like real heat anyway. I bet evenings are perfect there when it gets warm in August and September, at least after the sun sets.

 

Actually the big problem with Seattle heat is that most people do not have AC, and at the peak of the heatwave, it does not cool off at night.  For me, having grown up in the southeast and knowing what "real" heat is, that is my BIGGEST complaint.  I can handle 85-90 no problem, but when I then have to go sit in a 78-80 degree stuffy house, then try to go to sleep in a 75-78 degree house (my ideal sleeping temp is below 66), its no good.

 

Luckily, we usually only have to endure 2-3 days of the hot nights before the onshore flow cranks up, but most people are pretty cranky by then.

 

Also, it seems like the heatwaves are typically not too terribly humid, although this last one got really humid at the end.

 

This week we have been able to get the house down to 58-60 at night and it has been absolute heaven!

[Phil]

Has DC matched or exceeded PDX's 105 yet this year?

Ambient temperature or heat index? If it's the latter, then yeah like 20+ times, lol.

[BLI snowman]

Ambient temperature or heat index? If it's the latter, then yeah like 20+ times, lol.

 

Looks like they've peaked at just 98. After 3.4" of snow the winter before.

 

#weakgulfstreamafflictedmaritimeclimates

[Phil]

Actually the big problem with Seattle heat is that most people do not have AC, and at the peak of the heatwave, it does not cool off at night. For me, having grown up in the southeast and knowing what "real" heat is, that is my BIGGEST complaint. I can handle 85-90 no problem, but when I then have to go sit in a 78-80 degree stuffy house, then try to go to sleep in a 75-78 degree house (my ideal sleeping temp is below 66), its no good.

 

Luckily, we usually only have to endure 2-3 days of the hot nights before the onshore flow cranks up, but most people are pretty cranky by then.

 

Also, it seems like the heatwaves are typically not too terribly humid, although this last one got really humid at the end.

 

This week we have been able to get the house down to 58-60 at night and it has been absolute heaven!

Weren't lows in the mid/upper 60s during that heatwave? I'd imagine without AC it's very uncomfortable indoors during the daytime, but I think most would consider lows in the 60s as fairly comfortable overall. At least you can open the windows and run the fans. Can't do that with lows in the 80s and high dewpoints.

[Jesse]

Ambient temperature or heat index? If it's the latter, then yeah like 20+ times, lol.

The actual temperature, of course. Looks like a no.

[ShawniganLake]

Weren't lows in the mid/upper 60s during that heatwave? I'd imagine without AC it's very uncomfortable indoors during the daytime, but I think most would consider lows in the 60s as fairly comfortable overall. At least you can open the windows and run the fans. Can't do that with lows in the 80s and high dewpoints.

If you live on the east coast without air conditioning I have no sympathy for you.

[Phil]

The actual temperature, of course. Looks like a no.

Did it actually feel like 105*F? If not, then my point stands.

 

Seattle heat doesn't feel like real heat anyway.

[Jesse]

Did it actually feel like 105*F?

 

My point stands.

 

 

Yes, it did. A smoky, sizzling 105 degrees. D.C. Hasn't even seen triple digits this summer.

[Phil]

Yes, it did. A smoky, sizzling 105 degrees. D.C. Hasn't even seen triple digits this summer.

Lmao. You wouldn't last 5 minutes here in summer.

[Jesse]

Lmao, you wouldn't last a day here in summer.

I would probably do just fine considering I'm pretty sure even garden sheds have central AC out there.

 

#heatwussies

[Phil]

I would probably do just fine considering I'm pretty sure even garden sheds have central AC out there.

 

#heatwussies

You'd have to leave to buy groceries or go to work eventually.

 

Can't live in the bunker 24/7.

[Phil]

Looks like they've peaked at just 98. After 3.4" of snow the winter before.

 

#weakgulfstreamafflictedmaritimeclimates

Lol. Plus it all fell in March/April and was gone in 12hrs. Our winters are almost as awful as our summers.

 

...almost.

[Front Ranger]

[Phil]

If you live on the east coast without air conditioning I have no sympathy for you.

I guess I'd be an easy way to commit suicide and save money in the process. Just turn off the A/C.

[Phil]

Just an FYI, I was trolling Tim with that first post. I'm well aware that 105*F without A/C sucks no matter what. Been there, done that, don't want to do it again.

[Jesse]

Just an FYI, I was trolling Tim with that first post. I'm well aware that 105*F without A/C sucks no matter what. Been there, done that, don't want to do it again.

We don't have AC. It was hot. Luckily we went camping that night.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cool day in Southern California yesterday with a 4000 ft marine layer into the mountain passes and 0.17" of rain at Del Mar Heights. Same trough that brought measurable rain to the PNW.

[Phil]

Kinda OT, but I'm in the process of installing some high definition, live-stream wx-cameras (with high quality sound and night vision) on the anemometer pole on/above my roof, and should have at least three different viewing angles by the time I'm finished.

 

When I get back home at the end of the month, I'll finish the installation and post the link here, if anyone is interested come fall/winter. I'm utilizing a battery back-up for the router and cameras so they'll continue functioning even if the power goes out.

[Phil]

We don't have AC. It was hot. Luckily we went camping that night.

Out in the smoke? Did you bring gas masks?

[Phil]

Kidding aside, that sounds nice. Something I used to do more often but haven't done enough in recent years.

[Kayla]

Didn't last winter qualify as a weak Nina? 

 

It did indeed but just barely.

[Jesse]

Out in the smoke? Did you bring gas masks?

Up in the Cascades near Mount Adams it wasn't as much of an issue.

[BLI snowman]

Kinda OT, but I'm in the process of installing some high definition, live-stream wx-cameras (with high quality sound and night vision) on the anemometer pole on/above my roof, and should have at least three different viewing angles by the time I'm finished.

 

When I get back home at the end of the month, I'll finish the installation and post the link here, if anyone is interested come fall/winter. I'm utilizing a battery back-up for the router and cameras so they'll continue functioning even if the power goes out.

 

Sounds cool but if I want to watch 33 degree rain all winter then I think I'll  just stick to looking outside.

[Phil]

Sounds cool but if I want to watch 33 degree rain all winter then I think I'll just stick to looking outside.

Haha, man you're on fire today.

 

Maybe you'll feel differently if/when we get our next snowmageddon. This is the era of the HECS, after all.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Weren't lows in the mid/upper 60s during that heatwave? I'd imagine without AC it's very uncomfortable indoors during the daytime, but I think most would consider lows in the 60s as fairly comfortable overall. At least you can open the windows and run the fans. Can't do that with lows in the 80s and high dewpoints.

 

 

Up here in Bellingham it wasn't too terrible most nights.  A breeze would kick up a few hours before sunset, and it would cool quickly once the sun went down.  I think we usually got down to between 56-62 most nights.

 

The last couple of nights of this last heatwave there was no breeze, if I remember correctly it was still around 75 at sunset, and down to 68-70 by midnight....not enough differential to cool things off in the house, and no breeze to move the air.   We have several window fans, but they only do so much.  I'm surprised more homes don't have attic fans out here.  I've actually thought about trying to put one in my home.  Those worked great, in the south, and were fun to throw paper airplanes and other objects into.     I have no idea how they were on power and could care less as a kid but thinking back on it as an adult, that sucker had a huge motor on it and I am sure sucked down the power.  In addition, it had thin aluminum shutters that closed when it was off, and I supposed that would let tons of cold air in during the winter, which obviously would be less than ideal for the PNW.

 

 

I lucked out in most of the places I lived at in Georgia, my mom was not afraid to run the A/C when I lived at home, then when I moved out on my own, most places were out of the sun and stayed relatively cool.  There was one place I lived at that would absolutely roast.  It was an old brick duplex that was in the sun all day and only had a very old window A/C unit.  I only ran that on the hottest of days (it still tripled my power bill), otherwise I either kept the bath tub filled with cold water and would jump in it every couple of hours, or I would take a cold shower to cool off.  

 

I hate that kind of heat and humidity, which is why I don't live there any more!

[BLI snowman]

Haha, man you're on fire today.

 

Maybe you'll feel differently if/when we get our next snowmageddon. This is the era of the HECS, after all.

 

2025-26, the next mega Nino.

[Phil]

2025-26, the next mega Nino.

2019/20. Book it.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM is just goofy at 240 hours.   

 

Also shows a major hurricane heading into the panhandle of Florida.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Actually the big problem with Seattle heat is that most people do not have AC, and at the peak of the heatwave, it does not cool off at night. For me, having grown up in the southeast and knowing what "real" heat is, that is my BIGGEST complaint. I can handle 85-90 no problem, but when I then have to go sit in a 78-80 degree stuffy house, then try to go to sleep in a 75-78 degree house (my ideal sleeping temp is below 66), its no good.

 

Luckily, we usually only have to endure 2-3 days of the hot nights before the onshore flow cranks up, but most people are pretty cranky by then.

 

Also, it seems like the heatwaves are typically not too terribly humid, although this last one got really humid at the end.

 

This week we have been able to get the house down to 58-60 at night and it has been absolute heaven!

58-60 in the house in middle of summer is comfortable? I would never let it get that cold in my house during the winter with jeans and a sweater.

[Jesse]

I'm a big fan of the mid-long range 00Z GFS. Shorter lived warmth early next week, some decent rainfall late next week, and a sharp trough toward the end of the month.

[Bryant]

00Z GEM is just goofy at 240 hours.   

 

Also shows a major hurricane heading into the panhandle of Florida.

 

 

With convection over the Atlantic, TC development probability is high. The convection is associated with the MJO