August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Front Ranger]

Just window AC in bedroom/ kitchen?  Central A/C is unnecessarily costly/ impractical in favor of ductless systems. 

 

Bedroom, yeah.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

Bedroom, yeah.

Gross.

[stuffradio]

New winter hot take fresh off the presses! Joe Bastardi showed the ECMWF seasonal from August to December, and it has large troughing for December cutting into the west coast. It almost seems like December would be the month for us to score, and Jan Feb would be warmer? The ECMWF seasonal DJF shows warmer and wetter.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

SEA managed to get up to 71 today.   

 

There has not been a high temperature at SEA below 70 since June 28th.   

 

Except for the week of smoke and heat... this has been just about as perfect as it gets in the summer here.  

[Deweydog]

It's been a delightful week.

[Phil]

[wx_statman]

Warmest second week of September on record? IMO it's hard to envision a scenario without another heatwave for the PNW, given the massive burst of off-equator WPAC convection upcoming. Those waters are on absolute fire..up to 95*F over a large swath of the northern IPWP domain.

 

The heat is done once the MJO leaves the WPAC in late September, though. From there, the departure of the MJO will only assist in collapsing the EHEM monsoonal engine and develop the Siberian High.

 

I wonder what sort of forcing birthed the September 1988 heat wave? +28C at 850 and 105 at the surface in September...

[Phil]

I wonder what sort of forcing birthed the September 1988 heat wave? +28C at 850 and 105 at the surface in September...

Good question. My hunch is that it was a WPAC MJO over an enhanced warm pool and strong EASM, but I'll have to check just to be sure.

[wx_statman]

Good question. My hunch is that it was a WPAC MJO over an enhanced warm pool and strong EASM, but I'll have to check just to be sure.

 

We were in moderate Nina territory (MEI around -1.5) so it would make sense that warmer waters were present in the WPAC. That's about all I can say. 

[Phil]

We were in moderate Nina territory (MEI around -1.5) so it would make sense that warmer waters were present in the WPAC. That's about all I can say.

What dates was the heatwave centered? I'm going to check the VP200 anomalies to check if an MJO was the cause.

[wx_statman]

Regarding the WPAC warm pool - PNW heat wave connection, it's interesting to note that two of the greatest September heat waves on record along the West coast occurred during significant -ENSO events (1955 and 1988), when warmer than average waters were present in the western Pacific. 

[wx_statman]

What dates was the heatwave centered? I'm going to check the VP200 anomalies to check if an MJO was the cause.

 

September 1-3rd, peak on the 2nd. 

[Phil]

Regarding the WPAC warm pool - PNW heat wave connection, it's interesting to note that two of the greatest September heat waves on record along the West coast occurred during significant -ENSO events (1955 and 1988), when warmer than average waters were present in the western Pacific.

Indeed, especially by the standards of that cooler climate era. there was a very enhanced/poleward-shifted WPAC warm pool during September 1988.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F56C2D6C-10CC-4165-96CB-7472FF916754_zpsan4n9djc.png

[Phil]

September 1-3rd, peak on the 2nd.

Hmm, interesting. In that case it wasn't a warm pool MJO since the convection was centered over the IO at the time and was in wavenumber one mode. I'll check the predecessor streamfunction anomalies (proxy for Hadley Cell) and Eurasian AAM/UWD anomalies, and then hopefully will have a better answer.

 

Could also be diabatic forcing instigating a retrograding cyclonic RWB cycle which fed back onto the tropical statics and ignited the western ridge and MJO later in the month.

[Jesse]

Warmest second week of September on record? IMO it's hard to envision a scenario without another heatwave for the PNW, given the massive burst of off-equator WPAC convection upcoming. Those waters are on absolute fire..up to 95*F over a large swath of the northern IPWP domain.

 

The heat is done once the MJO leaves the WPAC in late September, though. From there, the departure of the MJO will only assist in collapsing the EHEM monsoonal engine and develop the Siberian High.

This is starting to feel like one of those things you overhype for weeks that ultimately ends up flopping (frigid June 2017!!!). At least that's what I'm hoping.

[Timmy Supercell]

The sun is red this evening in Klamath Falls.

[Kayla]

Seems like as of late there have been quite a few signs that this winter could be another cold/snowy one for the PACNW. Warm fall would also point to that IMO.

[Jesse]

Seems like as of late there have been quite a few signs that this winter could be another cold/snowy one for the PACNW. Warm fall would also point to that IMO.

Not at all. Many of our best winters have had chilly falls. Octobers especially.

[Kayla]

Not at all. Many of our best winters have had chilly falls. Octobers especially.

 

This is true but there have also been a lot of great winters following warm falls as well, specifically warm Novembers.

[Deweydog]

One, two, three, four I declare a fall war!

[Jesse]

This is true but there have also been a lot of great winters following warm falls as well, specifically warm Novembers.

The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record.

[BLI snowman]

The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record.

 

Cool October and mild November is a decent combo, historically.

[wx_statman]

The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record.

 

There's always a hail mary like 1988-89, but yeah most of our wall-to-wall warm falls have led to crap winters. That list is dominated by the likes of 1974-75, 1980-81, 1991-92, 1999-00, 2012-13 and 2014-15. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows PDX pushing 100 next Sunday (8/27) and 101 on Monday (8/28) at the end of the run.

[WeatherArchive]

One, two, three, four I declare a fall war!

Five,six,seven,eight,who do we really love yet hate?

[WeatherArchive]

00Z ECMWF shows PDX pushing 100 next Sunday (8/27) and 101 on Monday (8/28) at the end of the run.

It needs to quit pushing.

[Kayla]

The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record.

 

Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specifically average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average.

 

As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average. 

[stuffradio]

Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specially average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average.

 

As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average. 

2008 was quite warm until mid-December for me. I remember thinking "Am I ever going to get snow this year?" while running comfortably around the block in the beginning of December.

 

On another note, the temps have been normal or below normal today and yesterday. I also got heavy showers yesterday, it was almost pouring for a few minutes.

[Jesse]

2008 was quite warm until mid-December for me. I remember thinking "Am I ever going to get snow this year?" while running comfortably around the block in the beginning of December.

 

On another note, the temps have been normal or below normal today and yesterday. I also got heavy showers yesterday, it was almost pouring for a few minutes.

October was well below average that year.

[Phil]

Despite a (likely) warm September this year, I see a pretty notable pattern change to troughiness/-PNA during the final week of the month.

[Jesse]

Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specifically average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average.

 

As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average.

Not sure if there is much of a signal either way there. But falls where all three months run warm aren't generally followed by great winters.

 

Last year September was cool and October was slightly mild, for the record.

[stuffradio]

October was well below average that year.

Not here in Abbotsford, the average high was about 58 and the average low was about 41. The average high was higher than the actual average high, but the average low was slightly colder than normal.

[ShawniganLake]

Not here in Abbotsford, the average high was about 58 and the average low was about 41. The average high was higher than the actual average high, but the average low was slightly colder than normal.

You sure? Which station are you looking at. October 2008 at YXX, looks like -1.1F on both the high and the low.

[stuffradio]

You sure? Which station are you looking at. October 2008 at YXX, looks like -1.1F on both the high and the low.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01%7C2012-06-21&dlyRange=1944-10-01%7C2012-06-20&mlyRange=1944-01-01%7C2012-06-01&StationID=702&Prov=BC&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=specDate&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&Month=10&Day=18&txtStationName=Abbotsford&timeframe=2&Year=2008

 

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?searchType=stnName&txtStationName=Abbotsford&searchMethod=contains&txtCentralLatMin=0&txtCentralLatSec=0&txtCentralLongMin=0&txtCentralLongSec=0&stnID=702&dispBack=1

 

The daily average temperature for October is 10.5C but the average high was 14.4C and the average low was 5.3C. I was also using some data for Abbotsford from TWN, so that might be where the problem lies.

[ShawniganLake]

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01%7C2012-06-21&dlyRange=1944-10-01%7C2012-06-20&mlyRange=1944-01-01%7C2012-06-01&StationID=702&Prov=BC&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=specDate&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&Month=10&Day=18&txtStationName=Abbotsford&timeframe=2&Year=2008

 

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?searchType=stnName&txtStationName=Abbotsford&searchMethod=contains&txtCentralLatMin=0&txtCentralLatSec=0&txtCentralLongMin=0&txtCentralLongSec=0&stnID=702&dispBack=1

 

The daily average temperature for October is 10.5C but the average high was 14.4C and the average low was 5.3C. I was also using some data for Abbotsford from TWN, so that might be where the problem lies.

Oh. Maybe TWN is different. Because the EC data shows an average October temp of 15.0/ 5.9C. Daily mean of 10.5C. So 2008 was -0.6C across the board.

[stuffradio]

It's been a pretty average day today, not hot not cold with partly cloudy skies.

[Phil]

Some (very) preliminary cold season analogs I'm looking at.

 

Biased -ENSO/-QBO. Haven't factored in solar et al. The years in question are 1951/52, 1956/57, 1967/68, 1981/82, 1989/90, 1993/94, 2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06, and 2012/13.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2BA6D3E5-ACEB-4924-A2B8-E5988849393E_zpskist1ddb.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/748F41CE-4757-4574-B6E3-AA31F1182812_zpsijtmwmgt.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F156246D-F9D7-4388-AB22-EA52EA2AD5AF_zpsk7wsw6du.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A3EDA95B-5655-4A63-A3DB-DD778883F5F0_zpsdniqidr4.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/38215076-C7C0-4B4B-A3C2-E7D5C34B1D17_zpsidcarmrr.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/19516978-3FE6-4839-9E76-CD8DD5B36ACF_zps0odlda3k.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BEF8D914-AA52-4E44-B985-316F4B86FACF_zpsrw3g4dye.png

[Phil]

Will definitely refine this with time, but I'm getting mostly warm returns for autumn (October looks transitional) and a cooler than average D/J/F.

 

The January blocking sticks out like a sore thumb, as well.