August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

58-60 in the house in middle of summer is comfortable? I would never let it get that cold in my house during the winter with jeans and a sweater.

 

I would be miserable with a temperature in the 50s in the house... the rest of the family would hate it even more.  I am not even sure how you would get your house down into the 50s in JJA here.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

58-60 in the house in middle of summer is comfortable? I would never let it get that cold in my house during the winter with jeans and a sweater.

 

 

It's worth it!  When we can manage to get it that cold at night, we will still be at 68-70 inside when it is 80-85 outside.  58-60 is pushing it as far as comfort but we just sleep under blankets.  In the morning I am up and out the door within 30-40 minutes, and as for Mrs Chewbacca, our bathroom has a huge light strip over the mirror with 10-12 of those decorative globe bulbs (its as bright as the surface of the sun in there) to keep her warm.  Between those lights and the steam of the shower, it's a race for her to get her makeup on before she breaks out into a sweat.  

[stuffradio]

The 6Z GFS is pretty perfect in terms of summer weather, only one day around 86, one day around 80 and the rest in the 60's to 70's.

[Phil]

The MJO will return to the Indian Ocean sometime during early/mid August.

 

End result of that could be a -PNA/Plains ridge pattern and an Atlantic hurricane burst from 8/10 - 8/20, following what might be a very warm 8/1 - 8/10 in the PNW/western Canada.

Looks like 2/3 for me this time.

 

8/1-8/10 PNW heatwave - check

8/10-8/20 Atlantic hurricane burst - check

8/10-8/20 plains ridge - bust (though -PNA is semi-verifying).

[Phil]

The stratospheric polar vortex has officially formed in the upper sigmas. So begins the official slide into the NH winter circulation.

[BLI snowman]

Troughing signal just about gone.

[DareDuck]

Western subdivisions in Sisters are now under a level 2 evac alert. Smokey here in Bend this morning with some ash falling. 

[Jesse]

Troughing signal just about gone.

Looking like we may skate to warmest August on record quite easily. I was thinking it might be more of a fight about a week ago. Could even end up the warmest month on record, period, if we get a major heat event in the last week.

[BLI snowman]

Looking like we may skate to warmest August on record quite easily. I was thinking it might be more of a fight about a week ago. Could even end up the warmest month on record, period, if we get a major heat event in the last week.

 

If the 12z GFS verified it would be the first month in Portland history to not see  a

[Jesse]

If the 12z GFS verified it would be the first month in Portland history to not see a

More of the same. Warm records just feel numb anymore.

[Front Ranger]

Looking like we may skate to warmest August on record quite easily. I was thinking it might be more of a fight about a week ago. Could even end up the warmest month on record, period, if we get a major heat event in the last week.

 

Possible, but doubtful. 

[wx_statman]

If the 12z GFS verified it would be the first month in Portland history to not see  a

 

Our historic run of non-troughy Augusts would continue. This would be our 4th in a row without a sub-70 high...never saw more than two consecutive prior to that. 

[BLI snowman]

Our historic run of non-troughy Augusts would continue. This would be our 4th in a row without a sub-70 high...never saw more than two consecutive prior to that. 

 

Yeah, it's been crazy long since there was even any kind of appreciable troughing in the month. In the past even our warm Augusts would usually feature some kind of noteworthy pattern change at some point. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The stratospheric polar vortex has officially formed in the upper sigmas. So begins the official slide into the NH winter circulation.

 

This will soon inspire a post from Richard Mann about the colder air mass movements.

[Front Ranger]

If the 12z GFS verified it would be the first month in Portland history to not see  a

 

12z Euro says that won't happen.

[Geos]

Sun breaking out nicely after morning clouds. Popping up above 70 now.

[Dave]

Eugene had a 69 degree high on Sunday, causing much statistical mayhem.

 

The eclipse outlook is looking really good at the moment for the valley.  Cliff Mass says the computer models currently say there is only a 5% chance of clouds for the Willamette Valley.  I have my super secret back roads route to a super secret location locked in.  I even bought some emergency beef jerky.

[Deweydog]

The lines at the Costco gas pumps were super long today.

 

#fossilfuelsforeclipse2017

[Jesse]

Possible, but doubtful.

Well right now we're about 1.5F above the previous record warm August. With the models trending warmer and only two weeks left of the month, it's a significant possibility.

[stuffradio]

Well right now we're about 1.5F above the previous record warm August. With the models trending warmer and only two weeks left of the month, it's a significant possibility.

Since when do you trust what models say two weeks out?

[Jesse]

Since when do you trust what models say two weeks out?

Did you read my post or not?

[Jesse]

Euro shows a setup at day 10 that would lead to a major heat event.

 

Good ensemble support too. I'm going to go out on a limb and say we see another bout of 95+ degree heat in the last five days of the month. Should lock in our warmest month on record.

[Front Ranger]

Well right now we're about 1.5F above the previous record warm August. With the models trending warmer and only two weeks left of the month, it's a significant possibility.

 

The second half of August will almost certainly be cooler than the first half. You do the math.

[Jesse]

The second half of August will almost certainly be cooler than the first half. You do the math.

I have. It will be very hard to overcome.

[Deweydog]

The second half of August will almost certainly be cooler than the first half. You do the math.

Aren't we already like a week into fall?

[Front Ranger]

Aren't we already like a week into fall?

 

According to the Mayans, winter has already come.

[Front Ranger]

I have. It will be very hard to overcome.

 

Climo, current trends, and the models argue otherwise.

[Jesse]

Climo, current trends, and the models argue otherwise.

Time will tell!!

 

If I am indeed wrong, I promise at very least I won't go all Phil on you.

[Jesse]

Aren't we already like a week into fall?

What season it is or isn't has no bearing on the potential for anomalies. And I don't know if you've heard it from me yet or not, but our falls have been running VERY warm in recent years.

[Deweydog]

What season it is or isn't has no bearing on the potential for anomalies. And I don't know if you've heard it from me yet or not, but our falls have been running VERY warm in recent years.

Fall is still cooler than summer.

 

...FOR NOW!!!!!!!! DUNT DUNT DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Front Ranger]

What season it is or isn't has no bearing on the potential for anomalies. And I don't know if you've heard it from me yet or not, but our falls have been running VERY warm in recent years.

 

Ah, but it will take more than warm anomalies through the end of the month to finish record warm.   Temps the second half of August average about 1.5 degrees cooler than the first half.

 

Add to that the fact that we had an extremely warm first half that it's unlikely we get close to in second half, and odds definitely favor a month that ends up cooler than the record.

[stuffradio]

Did you read my post or not?

No, I just like to post witty things to you.

[Jesse]

No, I just like to post witty things to you.

When are you planning to start?

[Jesse]

Fall is still cooler than summer.

 

...FOR NOW!!!!!!!! DUNT DUNT DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#ifdeweyruledtheworld

[Deweydog]

#ifdeweyruledtheworld

#ialreadydo

[stuffradio]

When are you planning to start?

I've been doing it for years, silently....

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's worth it!  When we can manage to get it that cold at night, we will still be at 68-70 inside when it is 80-85 outside.  58-60 is pushing it as far as comfort but we just sleep under blankets.  In the morning I am up and out the door within 30-40 minutes, and as for Mrs Chewbacca, our bathroom has a huge light strip over the mirror with 10-12 of those decorative globe bulbs (its as bright as the surface of the sun in there) to keep her warm.  Between those lights and the steam of the shower, it's a race for her to get her makeup on before she breaks out into a sweat.  

 

Wow, that's crazy you can get it that cool in your place. It hasn't been below 68F in here in months. The low in the house was 70F and high 77F and it's still around 76F in here. This is with multiple windows open, no heating, in a location on a hill and an outdoor hi/low of 76F/55F; I consider this comfortable, but it gets much warmer during heatwaves.

[luminen]

Still 76F outside here...

[Jesse]

67 here....

 

[TT-SEA]

Still 76F outside here...

 

 

Are you sure?   Its 66 at SEA.