luminen Posted August 12, 2017 Report Share Posted August 12, 2017 Why's that? Our biggest snow usually comes from temps around -2 to 1C. I like big snows as much as the next guy but bitter cold is where it's at, as long as there is 2"+ on the ground. Add some strong winds to the mix and... Looking like I'll get 0.50" of rain with this next system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Today was our 56th consecutive day at or above 80 and 17th at or above 90. I believe we're also at 40 total 90+ plus days. However, no days above 100 in Bend so far. Looks to come to an end tomorrow thankfully. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Holy , it's raining!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Holy s**t, it's raining!!! Looks like a fairly robust front on the radar. So long smokey skies! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Looks like a fairly robust front on the radar. So long smokey skies! Air quality is already good across the region. But it will be nice to have a real front for extra measure. So glad we missed the entire smoke event... it just started when we were leaving and it cleared up just as we came home. I saw enough smoke on web cams though to know how bad it was here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Air quality is already good across the region. But it will be nice to have a real front for extra measure. So glad we missed the entire smoke event... it just started when we were leaving and it cleared up just as we came home. I saw enough smoke on web cams though to know how bad it was here. It started noticably clearing out here yesterday and low level air quality improved but today was the first time in over a week I've seen the Olympic Mountains. This front should clear up whatever was left. It's Alberta's turn now: http://i.imgur.com/H7MGAUK.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Got home in time to do some harvesting in the garden before it got dark tonight. The garden did awesome despite not being watered for the last week... and actually everything grew by leaps and bounds. Our tomato plants were about 5 feet tall when we left and now they are about 8 feet high. We have tons of zucchini about ready to pick now as well. Peas and beans and potatoes and lots of dahlias were picked tonight... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 The beneficial aspects of smoke to gardens are really underrated. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 The beneficial aspects of smoke to gardens are really underrated. Hard to argue with the results! Actually... the smoke might have keep the evaporation of moisture down a little. It definitely took the edge off the heat wave. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 The 00Z GFS is the complete opposite of its 12Z run for next weekend... much more troughy and cool. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Nice to see rain on the radar again. Was a nice day today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 The 00Z GFS is the complete opposite of its 12Z run for next weekend... much more troughy and cool.Good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Front is shearing apart... might not amount to much. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Around what time does PDX see the biggest drop in its % of days at or above 90? Looks like it's from August 9th (25%) to August 16th (9%). In other words, right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Looks like it's from August 9th (25%) to August 16th (9%). In other words, right now.Interesting. This kind of backs up what I was trying to say yesterday. Right around now is when things start moving in the other direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Interesting. This kind of backs up what I was trying to say yesterday. Right around now is when things start moving in the other direction. Yes, this is also the time of year when our average temp starts dropping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Yes, this is also the time of year when our average temp starts dropping.Now I'm curious about when the % chance 100+ days peaks. How exactly do you pull up the chart that makes this sort of thing relatively easy to calculate, again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Now I'm curious about when the % chance 100+ days peaks. How exactly do you pull up the chart that makes this sort of thing relatively easy to calculate, again? Go to the NOWData page on the Portland NWS site. This is what your query should look like: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 I wish there was a way to look up streaks. I'm thinking about importing a csv file of PDX max/min data into R (the statistical software). I can probably figure out a way to run a consecutive days function in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Hard to argue with the results! Actually... the smoke might have keep the evaporation of moisture down a little. It definitely took the edge off the heat wave. The evaporation rate seemed considerably lower last week with the smoke filtering the sun. My wife filled a bird bath during the thick of it and it took about 5 days to evaporate. With smokeless summer days it typically evaporates in 2~3 days. Still I'm glad to see it gone, Victoria proper just recorded its first measureable rain in 21 days. Victoria airport the first in what I believe is 55 days, which sets a new record for longest dry streak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Go to the NOWData page on the Portland NWS site. This is what your query should look like: Thank you! Looks like it peaks on both August 8th and 11th, with a 5.3% occurrence rate on both of those days. 95+ days peak on the 8th and 10th of August, with 11.8% occurrence rate for both of those days. Seems that for both of these thresholds there is a gradual buildup staring around the middle of July, then a sharp drop off moving past the second week of August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 I wish there was a way to look up streaks. I'm thinking about importing a csv file of PDX max/min data into R (the statistical software). I can probably figure out a way to run a consecutive days function in there.If you have time, you could check to see if you can find a diffraction pattern in the spatial distribution of the 100+ readings. I've found this pattern in a number of stations around here in the summer, almost like the interference pattern observed in the double slit experiment. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 If you have time, you could check to see if you can find a diffraction pattern in the spatial distribution of the 100+ readings. I've found this pattern in a number of stations around here in the summer, almost like the interference pattern observed in the double slit experiment. I'm not just talking about 100 degree streaks...any streaks. For example, if I wanted to figure out the most consecutive days with maximums below 58 (random example), I could call it up with a function. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Thank you! Looks like it peaks on both August 8th and 11th, with a 5.3% occurrence rate on both of those days. 95+ days peak on the 8th and 10th of August, with 11.8% occurrence rate for both of those days. Seems that for both of these thresholds there is a gradual buildup staring around the middle of July, then a sharp drop off moving past the second week of August. I posted some results a week ago in a different thread: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1400-unusual-weather-trivia-that-is-hard-to-google/?p=249684 Since that time, August 9th has moved from 24% to 25% probability of 90 degrees...94 on Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Tough day for BC fire fighters. Strong winds, lightning, dry fuels have pushed fires past guard lines and started new fires and brought new evacuations. The Elephant hill fire has progressed significantly to the North and towards our Property in that area. Not sure how close it has moved but I am hearing that they have moved structural protection units into the southern sections of our community. This picture was taken along Hwy20, understandably that highway has been closed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 To open the upcoming cold season, NH snowcover remains approximately +2 standard deviations above normal, for the 20yr record period of higher resolution satellite observations. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 The dry streak at SEA ends with precip recorded on just a single hourly observation with a total of .02 for the event. And only .08 here so far... although it is still drizzling. Very disappointing totals from what looked like a fairly robust front. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Note the subsidence centered over the northern periphery of the WPAC warm pool on the GFS/GEFS. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017081306&fh=-114&xpos=0&ypos=304 The MJO is temporarily suppressing the multidecadal tendency for increased off-equator (NH based) WPAC convection. This will promote a waveguide that favors a trough anomaly over western North America until the MJO propagates into the Pacific during early or middle September. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 FWIW, I believe the chances of a mid-September heatwave are also elevated this year, given the MJO periodicity and pronounced WPAC warm pool and low frequency +PMM circulation. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 It rained overnight, but not much. I haven't checked the manual rain gauge yet, but my weather station is only reporting 0.03 inches. There was a power outage too for a few minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 The dry streak at SEA ends with precip recorded on just a single hourly observation with a total of .02 for the event. And only .08 here so far... although it is still drizzling. Very disappointing totals from what looked like a fairly robust front. Very much like most of California's "storms" in the winter seasons before this year. Even the ones that looked like they could bring some good rain would always fizzle out at the last minute, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 The dry streak at SEA ends with precip recorded on just a single hourly observation with a total of .02 for the event. And only .08 here so far... although it is still drizzling. Very disappointing totals from what looked like a fairly robust front.I don't think it was ever supposed to amount to anything at least down here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 I guess a wildcard could be Atlantic hurricane activity later this month. With sufficient extratropical diabatic heat release, the NATL wavetrain/NAO (et al) could be altered enough to destructively interfere with any MJO-forced Western NAMR ridge, at least for a time. It would require a perfectly timed major hurricane(s), though, between August 20th - 28th, right before the MJO enters the WPAC again in September. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 I don't think it was ever supposed to amount to anything at least down here I was expecting at least a widespread .25 for most areas up here based on the models over the past couple days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 I guess a wildcard could be Atlantic hurricane activity later this month. With sufficient extratropical diabatic heat release, the NATL wavetrain/NAO (et al) could be altered enough to destructively interfere with any MJO-forced Western NAMR ridge, at least for a time. It would require a perfectly timed major hurricane(s), though, between August 20th - 28th, right before the MJO enters the WPAC again in September.So I'd lean warm to very-warm in the PNW for September, but it's definitely not as straightforward this time, compared to August which was almost a slam dunk, even 6+ weeks out. Then in late September into October, we'll have to see whether the Eurasian circulation transitions quickly into the winter state an we develop a stronger Siberian High (good sign for cooler weather/blocking heading into cold season and a cooler PNW in most cases) or maintain the monsoonal circulation for longer like most recent years (warm signal for PNW during -QBO years via +EPO/wave dispersion in NPAC). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 Also, I cannot emphasize how important it is (IMO) that we avoid major geomagnetic storms/proton blasts in Sep/Oct/Nov during a -QBO fall/winter, just a few years removed from solar max. The conduits to NH blocking during -QBO winters are more coherent and accessible vs +QBO winters, but getting the cold/blocking to favor North America (as opposed to Eurasia) is much more challenging under -ENSO bias. The cases of successful PNW winters under -QBO/-ENSO are almost exclusively confined to weak solar wind years in the modern climate era. The system is just now beginning the transition out of its solar-max Pacific circulation (started back in M/A/M this year), so we'd like the fastest transition possible. Unlike the +QBO boundary state, which favors a strong/poleward NPAC high in nearly all cases, the -QBO years can easily go nuclear with the +EPO/GOA vortex if the NAM/strat are pulled positive. Given the systematic transition out of the solar maximum circulation is just beginning, IMO we don't want to upset the process by crippling the BDC/cooling the upper stratosphere before the cold season NAM conduits open/mature (usually around the holidays). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 A refreshing, fine drizzle here this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 So I'd lean warm to very-warm in the PNW for September, but it's definitely not as straightforward this time, compared to August which was almost a slam dunk, even 6+ weeks out. Then in late September into October, we'll have to see whether the Eurasian circulation transitions quickly into the winter state an we develop a stronger Siberian High (good sign for cooler weather/blocking heading into cold season and a cooler PNW in most cases) or maintain the monsoonal circulation for longer like most recent years (warm signal for PNW during -QBO years via +EPO/wave dispersion in NPAC). It does not feel like a warm to very warm September coming... that is just intuition based on local history and not scientific in any way. Although I have been wrong many times before using that method. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2017 Report Share Posted August 13, 2017 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM both significantly backed off on the troughing for next weekend that their 00Z runs showed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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