August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Particulaty out.

You can't spell particulaty without party!

[Jesse]

The 18z mostly looks like an outlier on the ensembles.

[Kayla]

I just looked at the 12z Euro ensemble mean and it looked very close to the operational.

 

There is a huge spread beyond Monday and the mean is much warmer (5-8ºc @850mb warmer at times at PDX).

[Jesse]

There is a huge spread beyond Monday and the mean is much warmer (5-8ºc @850mb warmer at times at PDX).

Looks almost identical at 500mb.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like its being pushed up against the mountains now and trapped. Looks horrible.

 

Still thinking this is normal? We're about to smash drought records, we're getting slammed with the worst fires in decades, and North Bend looks like the nasty end of a smokestack. I warned you that things were bad and we needed the rains to hang on a bit longer.

[Jesse]

Still thinking this is normal? We're about to smash drought records, we're getting slammed with the worst fires in decades, and North Bend looks like the nasty end of a smokestack. I warned you that things were bad and we needed the rains to hang on a bit longer.

It was very important that Tim's boating and picnicking plans weren't ruined. Now we're all paying the price.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It was very important that Tim's boating and picnicking plans weren't ruined. Now we're all paying the price.

 

I don't think an early start to our fall frontal season would ever be as welcome as it is now. I've even heard numerous typical summer-worshipers mention it this past week. We need a few good rainy systems to blast through.

[TT-SEA]

Still thinking this is normal? We're about to smash drought records, we're getting slammed with the worst fires in decades, and North Bend looks like the nasty end of a smokestack. I warned you that things were bad and we needed the rains to hang on a bit longer.

What are you talking about? You were complaining about the lack of rain in April when it was raining every single day. Its not like this has been building up for months and you were warning us.

 

This started in the middle of June for most of the region. We are about an inch below normal since then... after being 9 inches above ABOVE normal through May.

 

I would say this has been an extremely wet year with an unusual dry and warm stretch recently. Not a big deal. The smoke will clear soon.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think an early start to our fall frontal season would ever be as welcome as it is now. I've even heard numerous typical summer-worshipers mention it this past week. We need a few good rainy systems to blast through.

People do not like smoke in the air.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

What are you talking about? You were complaining about the lack of rain in April when it was raining every single day. Its not like this has been building up for months and you were warning us.

 

This started in the middle of June for most of the region. We are about an inch below normal since then... after being 9 inches above ABOVE normal through May.

 

I would say this has been an extremely wet year with an unusual dry and warm stretch recently. Not a big deal. The smoke will clear soon.

 

April/May were near normal in terms of rainfall here and it's been way drier since then. This area is probably most representative of the fire source areas as it gets hit especially hard with the SW rain shadow. The worst of the fires are happening in areas plagued by the SW rain shadow. The extreme drought this summer has just made a bad situation worse. The tinderbox has spread across a far wide region with the current conditions, anything short of an early fall could spell major trouble as we approach the compressional heat season.

[Kayla]

Looks almost identical at 500mb.

 

Just stating what it actually shows. I hope it's wrong probably just as much as you do (would love to see some more precip out this way as well) but the operational run seems unlikely at this point.

[TT-SEA]

April/May were near normal in terms of rainfall here and it's been way drier since then. This area is probably most representative of the fire source areas as it gets hit especially hard with the SW rain shadow. The worst of the fires are happening in areas plagued by the SW rain shadow. The extreme drought this summer has just made a bad situation worse. The tinderbox has spread across a far wide region with the current conditions, anything short of an early fall could spell major trouble as we approach the compressional heat season.

All I know is that 6 weeks ago it was sopping wet across most of the region. It could not get any wetter.

[Jesse]

Just stating what it actually shows. I hope it's wrong probably just as much as you do (would love to see some more precip out this way as well) but the operational run seems unlikely at this point.

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 10.22.59 PM.png

 

The ensemble is definitely a little less extreme than the operational (to be expected at range), but it really wasn't THAT big of an outlier. 

[TT-SEA]

Well... the 00Z GFS does not bring much rain and seems to be in a hurry to return to ridging. Should at least clean the air though.

[Jesse]

Well... the 00Z GFS does not bring much rain and seems to be in a hurry to return to ridging. Should at least clean the air though.

Looks more zonal than ridgy in the long range, at least compared to other runs today.

[Front Ranger]

All I know is that 6 10 weeks ago it was sopping wet across most of the region. It could not get any wetter.

 

Fixed it for you.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the lingering ULL scenario for next week has disappeared in the models... now more like a glancing blow on Sunday and then the trough lifts into Canada.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Record rainfall followed by record dry spells is a recipe for fires.

[Kayla]

The ensemble is definitely a little less extreme than the operational (to be expected at range), but it really wasn't THAT big of an outlier. 

 

No one said it was a "big outlier". Moot point now anyway, 00z operational shifted more towards the ensemble mean.

[Jesse]

Running into that 1977 analog again.

 

17 of 19 days at 90+ during that stretch, with 6 at 100+. I'm not sure what's more impressive, that stretch or this one.

I would say the 1977 stretch was easily more impressive.

[stuffradio]

The 00Z EPSgrams showed YVR reaching sub 550 thickness on the 14th. That's crazy low considering what we've been experiencing. It was only one member showing this, but it's still crazy that that kind of thing shows up.

[Jesse]

Trough is looking pretty intense on the 12z GFS. Highs *may* drop below 80 down here if we're lucky. Stay tuned!!

[BLI snowman]

Trough is looking pretty intense on the 12z GFS. Highs *may* drop below 80 down here if we're lucky. Stay tuned!!

 

I would certainly hope that the local warming centers have all been notified. 

[Front Ranger]

I would say the 1977 stretch was easily more impressive.

Agreed. Though without the smoke, decent chance this one would be on par with it.

[Jesse]

Agreed. Though without the smoke, decent chance this one would be on par with it.

Doubtful. That warm spell lasted two and a half weeks (7/31 to 8/17) and featured two separate spikes into the mid-100s at PDX. Smoke or no, the upper airmass for the "second round" this week was nowhere close to 1977. This will also probably end up about a week shorter in duration all told.

[ShawniganLake]

Warmer start to the day here. Already touching 80. A touch hazy and humid as well, dew point 63F.

[Jesse]

Warmer start to the day here. Already touching 80. A touch hazy and humid as well, dew point 63F.

At least the temperatures lately have been right up your alley.

[wx_statman]

I would say the 1977 stretch was easily more impressive.

 

I'm not so sure. 13 straight at 90+ (assuming that verifies) with a 107 thrown in makes a case for itself. I don't know if I could choose one over the other. 

 

EDIT: Of course, I'm only talking about Salem. For Portland its really no contest as August 1977 was more impressive. 

[wx_statman]

Doubtful. That warm spell lasted two and a half weeks (7/31 to 8/17) and featured two separate spikes into the mid-100s at PDX. Smoke or no, the upper airmass for the "second round" this week was nowhere close to 1977. This will also probably end up about a week shorter in duration all told.

 

Assuming today and tomorrow hit 90 at Salem, it will make 17 of 20 days. Compare to 17 of 19 in 1977.

[ShawniganLake]

At least the temperatures lately have been right up your alley.

Average high for August so far here is 86F.

 

The approaching trough this weekend has me a bit worried for our cabin in the interior. There should be some strong southerly winds before any precip arrives. The Elephant hill fire is currently 7.5miles south of our location. Looks showery Sunday/ Monday which should help.

[Jesse]

Assuming today and tomorrow hit 90 at Salem, it will make 17 of 20 days. Compare to 17 of 19 in 1977.

I'm talking about PDX while others are talking about Salem. My mistake.

 

I will still hold that smoke was not the main reason many other places weren't on par with 1977 this month. The signature of that event was the "double shot" of extreme heat, separated by a handful of days of high end warmth/lower end heat. We didn't really see anything like that the last 7-10 days. More like a long stretch of low end heat with a two day spike in the middle.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF is now progressive as well with the trough... no ULL.

 

Probably better for a couple reasons... more effective clearing of the smoke (easterly flow might be just as bad) and less chance for widespread lightning.  

[Geos]

Lot of marine clouds hanging around the coast and out over the ocean today.

 

[Jesse]

Average high for August so far here is 86F.

 

The approaching trough this weekend has me a bit worried for our cabin in the interior. There should be some strong southerly winds before any precip arrives. The Elephant hill fire is currently 7.5miles south of our location. Looks showery Sunday/ Monday which should help.

Hopefully any troughing or precip can hold off up there for at least another several weeks.

[Front Ranger]

Doubtful. That warm spell lasted two and a half weeks (7/31 to 8/17) and featured two separate spikes into the mid-100s at PDX. Smoke or no, the upper airmass for the "second round" this week was nowhere close to 1977. This will also probably end up about a week shorter in duration all told.

 

I'm guessing what wxstatman was considering, though, was the basically uninterrupted nature of the very warm air mass this month. In 1977, PDX had several non-smoke affected (as far as I'm aware) dips into the 80s during those 2.5 weeks. A couple of those brought highs as cool as 84. There ended up being 13 90+ days at PDX, which is probably about what we would have seen this time if it weren't for the smoke. And the smoke also probably chopped off one more 100+ day and prevented a challenge of the all-time record. 

 

Regionally, without the smoke, I think the two events would have ended up very comparable. Going by 850s, mainly.

 

EDIT: I see he explained as well.

[Jesse]

I'm guessing what wxstatman was considering, though, was the basically uninterrupted nature of the very warm air mass this month. In 1977, PDX had several non-smoke affected (as far as I'm aware) dips into the 80s during those 2.5 weeks. A couple of those brought highs as cool as 84. There ended up being 13 90+ days at PDX, which is probably about what we would have seen this time if it weren't for the smoke. And the smoke also probably chopped off one more 100+ day and prevented a challenge of the all-time record. 

 

EDIT: I see he explained as well.

 

There was very little smoke around last Saturday, and just about everywhere (sans Salem) still saw highs in the upper 80s.

[Front Ranger]

There was very little smoke around last Saturday, and just about everywhere (sans Salem) still saw highs in the upper 80s.

 

Looks like several places in Portland metro that maxed out just under 90 that day reported smoke. Either way, the air mass hasn't cooled once to the point it did a couple times in that 1977 stretch, and there's no denying the smoke has chopped off several degrees of warmth on a number of days.

 

We'll never know for sure what would have happened without all the smoke, but I'm guessing if we compare 850s by the end of this event, it will look pretty comparable to 1977.

[Jesse]

I'm guessing what wxstatman was considering, though, was the basically uninterrupted nature of the very warm air mass this month. In 1977, PDX had several non-smoke affected (as far as I'm aware) dips into the 80s during those 2.5 weeks. A couple of those brought highs as cool as 84. There ended up being 13 90+ days at PDX, which is probably about what we would have seen this time if it weren't for the smoke. And the smoke also probably chopped off one more 100+ day and prevented a challenge of the all-time record. 

 

Regionally, without the smoke, I think the two events would have ended up very comparable. Going by 850s, mainly.

 

EDIT: I see he explained as well.

 

I'm just not seeing it. 1977 had two separate events where 850s got high enough to produce mid-100s in the lowlands. That alone puts it in a league by itself. Those two events were bookended by warmth and had warmth in between as well.

 

This was more of a 2010s style event. A very long lived stretch of moderate to high end warmth with a couple truly hot days thrown in. More in common with 2009 or 2015 than 1977. Smoke or no smoke.

[Phil]

How do the overall average temperatures compare between the two heatwaves? Smoke will probably have a slight warming effect at 850mb given it slightly increases the thermal capacity and efficiency of absorption at the top of the lower boundary layer. It will also keep surface temperatures slightly elevated at night despite knocking a degree or two off the highs.

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully any troughing or precip can hold off up there for at least another several weeks.

Not at all what I said. As* hole.