August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[wx_statman]

Pleasant evening on the trail at Mt. Talbert. Clean air and low 80s. Never would guess that we're only two days removed from a 105 degree smokehouse.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like the 2009 record will live on!

[Jesse]

Looks like the 2009 record will live on!

At least until September...

[seattleweatherguy]

Due to today's much lower temps than anticipated should we expect it to cool down faster this week?

[Deweydog]

Due to today's much lower temps than anticipated should we expect it to cool down faster this week?

110 looking less likely.

[wx_statman]

Looks like the 2009 record will live on!

 

This is becoming the summer of near misses. The 101 in June, 105 two days ago, and 89 today. 

[Geos]

Only 82 here today, was originally supposed to be 87. 

Sunset tonight.

 

[Jesse]

Looks like the only two westside stations (north of Roseburg at least) where the streak lives on are SLE and TTD.

[BLI snowman]

This is becoming the summer of near misses. The 101 in June, 105 two days ago, and 89 today. 

 

It does appear that we will get a dry streak record at SEA at least, if you're into that kinda stuff.

[wx_statman]

It does appear that we will get a dry streak record at SEA at least, if you're into that kinda stuff.

 

It's ALL interesting. 

[stuffradio]

00Z GFS showing rain starting 5PM Friday. Not sure if it's actually supported yet though by the ensembles.

 

The 00Z GEM is something else by hour 240.

 

 

[Jesse]

Marine layer made it all the way to the metro area this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

6th consecutive day of smoke here.

[TT-SEA]

Significant storm on day 8 per the 12Z GFS.

[Geos]

Yeah that's the most significant system all summer.

 

[Jesse]

Significant storm on day 8 per the 12Z GFS.

Would be awesome to see that verify.

[Guest happ]

Yeah that's the most significant system all summer.

 

 

And bring cool air into California also

[dairyd]

What it is modeling is that TS Nagale is pulling the broad pacific high back west far enough to open the door slightly for an aluetian low to sneak down some energy here.  But that will require some breakdown in the western ridge to cooperate.  I don't know if there will be enough energy to do that as witnessed by the last low that tried to break down the ridge 2 weeks ago and failed. 

 

[Jesse]

Some rain and cooler, active weather would be nice, but I wouldn't hold my breath. It's been years since we've seen a legitimately active pattern start this early.

 

In reality it will probably be a situation where most of the energy ends up digging offshore and we are left in a slightly cooler, but more humid pattern with spotty rain chances.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF appears to weaken the system for early next week compared to the 00Z ECMWF.

[wx_statman]

Marine layer made it all the way to the metro area this morning.

 

Two days ago, the GFS was spitting out 22-23C for today and the NWS was talking about possible upper 90's and issuing a heat advisory. 

 

17.8C this morning over SLE. 

[wx_statman]

FWIW, this past heat wave verified at 26.2C over SLE on the afternoon of 8/3. Higher than either July 2009 or August 1981, but lower than either July 2006 or August 1977 (both of which hit 27.0C over SLE). 

[Jesse]

Two days ago, the GFS was spitting out 22-23C for today and the NWS was talking about possible upper 90's and issuing a heat advisory. 

 

17.8C this morning over SLE. 

 

Yeah, the onshore flow has been more stubborn than anticipated. I'm not complaining.

 

Will be interesting to see if we can skate through today with another sub-90 high. We are running about the same as yesterday at the moment, although there are a few more clouds around and smoke seems to be coming back into the picture as well.

[stuffradio]

Hudson bay omega block on the 12Z GFS

 

[Jesse]

The transition from hour 192 to 216 on the 12Z Euro looks pretty wonky. Seems like the GFS has been slightly more consistent in its handling of the pattern. It has surprisingly outperformed the Euro in the mid-range a handful of times this summer.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah, the onshore flow has been more stubborn than anticipated. I'm not complaining.

 

Will be interesting to see if we can skate through today with another sub-90 high. We are running about the same as yesterday at the moment, although there are a few more clouds around and smoke seems to be back coming into the picture as well.

 

Is it still taboo to hope for some rain? I was worried something like this could happen this summer with the way things dried out so early. Even you have to admit things are way to dry now and we could use a good swath of rainy weather to get things under control. The forests are incredibly volatile now, even right to the coast.

[James Jones]

Is it still taboo to hope for some rain? I was worried something like this could happen this summer with the way things dried out so early. Even you have to admit things are way to dry now and we could use a good swath of rainy weather to get things under control. The forests are incredibly volatile now, even right to the coast.

 

When even Tim is rooting for rain you know it's been a bit dry.

[Jesse]

Is it still taboo to hope for some rain? I was worried something like this could happen this summer with the way things dried out so early. Even you have to admit things are way to dry now and we could use a good swath of rainy weather to get things under control. The forests are incredibly volatile now, even right to the coast.

Not at all. It never was in my book. We need it badly now, on a regional level.

[TT-SEA]

Is it still taboo to hope for some rain? I was worried something like this could happen this summer with the way things dried out so early. Even you have to admit things are way to dry now and we could use a good swath of rainy weather to get things under control. The forests are incredibly volatile now, even right to the coast.

It had nothing to do with the spring. Most areas went into summer as wet as it could possibly be... then a record dry streak.

 

I would like a good soaking rain every week in summer.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, the onshore flow has been more stubborn than anticipated. I'm not complaining.

 

Will be interesting to see if we can skate through today with another sub-90 high. We are running about the same as yesterday at the moment, although there are a few more clouds around and smoke seems to be coming back into the picture as well.

 

I'm thinking no 90 today either. 

[Geos]

Any change in the pattern would be good. Heavy smoke aloft today, Only up to 76 as of 2pm. 

CMC has the low also, but comes ashore further north.

 

[wx_statman]

I'm thinking no 90 today either. 

 

Making a bit of a push now. 87 at 4:05 pm. 

[Geos]

Temperature pretty much flat lined once it got to 77. Marine push little stronger today.

[Timmy Supercell]

Thunderstorms in progress, thunder every 15 seconds. I had a brief downpour about 4:35 ish. Now storms a little to my SW with some close booms from 3-5 miles out. A few sound closer.

 

I like the smell of rain too. The smoke got worse today so it's nice!

 

This should make my 6th storm day for the year. 

[Jesse]

Looks like TTD broke its streak today. But Salem's lives on.

[wx_statman]

Looks like TTD broke its streak today. But Salem's lives on.

 

9 days and counting. I wonder what their record is? 

[luminen]

80F with a dew point of 65F right now.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like TTD broke its streak today. But Salem's lives on.

 

Salem may as well be the Columbia Basin at this point.

[BLI snowman]

9 days and counting. I wonder what their record is? 

 

I think it's 10. They've done that twice (July 1938, August 1967).

[Jesse]

Salem may as well be the Columbia Basin at this point.

Maybe old news, but I heard from someone here that their station has been running a little warm lately. I haven't looked too much into it myself.