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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

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#1
Tom

Posted 12 August 2017 - 06:55 PM

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Wx Bell's sneak peak snowfall forecast for the CONUS...

 

 


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#2
Tom

Posted 14 August 2017 - 01:15 PM

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The JMA has updated their seasonal outlook and it has a similar look in the NE PAC/N.A. when compared to the CFSv2.  Ridging along the west coast suggesting a +PNA pattern.  It also looks wet for a lot of the CONUS east of the Rockies and the SW.

 

 



#3
Tom

Posted 15 August 2017 - 09:18 AM

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Encouraging signs for a colder/snowier winter for the central CONUS.  International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is suggesting a pattern favorable for snow lovers.

 

Temp...

 

DJF18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

Precip...

 

DJF18_NAm_pcp.gif



#4
Tom

Posted 16 August 2017 - 04:53 AM

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Another look at a couple different models for the Winter months...SE Ridge signal looks real and so does a La Nina pattern...

 

IMME...

 

DHTQZCyUwAAwKUg.jpg

 

 

NMME...

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season4.png


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#5
Tom

Posted 16 August 2017 - 05:11 AM

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I thought about creating a separate thread for those who want to have a discussion regarding our upcoming cold season.  It would prevent clogging up our summer month thread so as to not interrupt those who enjoy summer-like conditions.

 

Having said that, chances are increasing that we may have another La Nina Winter season.  The CFSv2 is showing a stronger signal, along with several other models that are trending that way.  How strong does it get???  That is a good question.  

 

The latest CFSv2 weelies are suggesting a moderate La Nina...

 

nino34Sea.gif

 

SE Ridge signal keeps showing up...

 

usPrecSeaInd4.gif

 

The model is still running a bit warm but it has been going back and forth throughout the summer.  I recall back in late Spring it was showing a colder winter but has since backed off.  However, it is trending back to a colder look at 500mb.  Anyway, here is the latest run...

 

 

 

I read somewhere that the Euro seasonal was showing a variable NAO and you could see here that the CFSv2 is honing in on a +NAO which would not be ideal.

glbz700SeaInd4.gif

 

usT2mSeaInd4.gif

 

 

 

 



#6
VMB443

Posted 16 August 2017 - 05:26 AM

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The best time of the year is the first discussion of winter possibilities!
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#7
Tom

Posted 16 August 2017 - 05:47 AM

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I'm waiting for the JAMSTEC to come out with their August run...it should have come out by now, maybe tomorrow...



#8
james1976

Posted 16 August 2017 - 07:28 AM

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Farmers Almanac winter outlook
http://www.bucksloca...9d85d1069d.html

#9
jaster220

Posted 16 August 2017 - 10:13 AM

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Another look at a couple different models for the Winter months...SE Ridge signal looks real and so does a La Nina pattern...

 

IMME...

 

DHTQZCyUwAAwKUg.jpg

 

 

NMME...

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season4.png

 

That NMME is eye-candy for MI qpf-wise. Just need the cold to dominate, or at least be "in sync" like 07-08. Those on Amwx are cheering on the prospects of a similar season with all the action S Lakes and OHV saw ten yrs ago. I think the first snowfall in Marshall hit dbl digits. That's an awesome kick-off around here.


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 11.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 11.4 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#10
BrianJK

Posted 16 August 2017 - 01:15 PM

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Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter.  I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction).  Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us?  For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen?  I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season.  For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean....  you get the point.


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#11
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 August 2017 - 02:02 PM

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Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter. I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction). Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us? For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen? I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season. For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean.... you get the point.


I give props for this post. I wholeheartedly agree that I need to do a better job of covering both points and counterpoints in my own posts. I know I have some bias also and have worked pretty hard over the last few seasons to remove that and write in a more objective way regardless of what I like or dislike. I'll continue to try to do a better job of that in the future also.
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#12
Tom

Posted 16 August 2017 - 06:20 PM

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Yes, it's always fun to look ahead and even more so to see encouraging signs of a cold and snowy winter.  I just feel like you can always find encouraging signs if you try hard enough (kind of like how you can always spin statistics in a certain direction).  Weren't the last two winters supposed to be off to a fast start and be cold and snowy only to turn out to be almost non-existent for most of us?  For the sake of learning - can the active/knowledgeable posters also include how an opposite/contrary scenario could happen?  I don't just mean for the winter outlook, but also day to day once we are actually in the winter season.  For example - A, B, C all suggest a cold and dry week, however if X, Y, Z were to transpire, then that could mean....  you get the point.

Good post.  In this stage of the game, I always like to post all the models (even the ones that are not showing a cold winter)...For instance, the CFSv2 maps above show largely above normal temps for the majority on the CONUS.  Now, there could be a lot that can go wrong to offset the positive, or rather, snow/cold conditions.  

 

For instance, the warm pool building in the NE PAC could vanish (like last year) over the next couple months.  Second, we can have a mod/strong La Nina which would not be a beneficial storm track for the Midwest/Lakes region.  Third, even though we have blocking present now in late summer and which could very well continue into the Autumn...however, that could flip in a heart beat once we get into Winter (like it did last year).  So, yes, a lot can change but we have to see how the new cyclical pattern sets up in Oct/Nov for me to truly get a grasp on how I believe next cold season will play out.  Until then, enjoy watching the new model runs come in and enjoy the ride!

 

As for blocking, so far through Aug 14th, the QBO is solidly negative and forecasts suggest it to continue for the foreseeable future.  Meaning, if a -AO/-NAO pattern remains throughout the Autumn months it should continue through Winter.  Last year, we did not have a         -QBO which prob offset the -AO pattern we had last Autumn that suddenly flipped positive DJF.

 

tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

 

 

Nature will do what she pleases and I'm sure it will be another learning experience for myself on what actually transpires.  I love to learn everyday how all the variables in meteorology work together to give us the weather that we all live in.  We have to enjoy the weather, because the weather, will always be with you.

 

Sorry for the long post!  


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#13
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 07:08 AM

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CPC has updated their seasonal outlooks and there are some changes from last months run.  Firstly, next month has trended much cooler comparing to what it was showing during last months run.  This makes sense since we have seen the CFSv2 flip much cooler since the beginning of August when this trend began.

 

t14.2c.gif

 

p14.2c.gif

 

 

Moving forward, just looking at this map below for SON, you have to wonder how much of this is taking into account a warm bias???  If you torch the AK region, desert SW and even parts of New England...the natural response would be lower heights or cooler conditions across the central CONUS.  You can sorts see the signs if you ask me.

 

 

t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

p01.2c.gif

 

 

 

 

 

For the Winter months, the gist of an amplified N.A. pattern continues...again, looks to warm...but you get the idea...interesting wet look for the central Rockies...

 

 

t04.2c.gif

 

 

 

p04.2c.gif



#14
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 07:38 AM

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The idea of an early and fast start to Autumn up near the Archipelago regions of Canada are on the table.  Trends in the CFSv2/CFS show continued troughing to begin developing as we head into September allowing cold air and an early snow cover to build up.

 

By the end of Sept, the CFS model is showing widespread snow cover across N Canada...

 

17093012_1700.gif

 

 

If less snow falls across AK during the Sept/Oct period, I think it will set the stage for ridging to become a player for the new cyclical pattern.  Just an early thought on what I'm seeing. 



#15
james1976

Posted 17 August 2017 - 07:54 AM

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The idea of an early and fast start to Autumn up near the Archipelago regions of Canada are on the table. Trends in the CFSv2/CFS show continued troughing to begin developing as we head into September allowing cold air and an early snow cover to build up.

By the end of Sept, the CFS model is showing widespread snow cover across N Canada...

17093012_1700.gif


If less snow falls across AK during the Sept/Oct period, I think it will set the stage for ridging to become a player for the new cyclical pattern. Just an early thought on what I'm seeing.

I assume you mean west coast ridge?

#16
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:17 AM

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I assume you mean west coast ridge?


Yes, and you could also add the Alaskan Ridge.

#17
james1976

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:22 AM

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Yes, and you could also add the Alaskan Ridge.

Got ya. One would think if that were to pan out it would be more troughy for the CONUS. Interesting stuff on the table.

#18
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:35 AM

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Got ya. One would think if that were to pan out it would be more troughy for the CONUS. Interesting stuff on the table.


Couldn't agree more. I think both you and I will be in pure autumnal mode by Labor Day weekend!

#19
james1976

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:40 AM

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Couldn't agree more. I think both you and I will be in pure autumnal mode by Labor Day weekend!

Im feeling it!

#20
BrianJK

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:54 AM

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Thanks guys - always appreciate your contributions. 


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#21
james1976

Posted 17 August 2017 - 10:12 AM

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After my mom mentioned a few days that she saw a few leaves changing Ive also noticed quite a bit myself. Some have already fallen. I realize its prolly from the dry weather but if we get some cool and damp days I can see quite a bit more color and falling leaves in the next few weeks.

#22
BrianJK

Posted 17 August 2017 - 12:52 PM

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After my mom mentioned a few days that she saw a few leaves changing Ive also noticed quite a bit myself. Some have already fallen. I realize its prolly from the dry weather but if we get some cool and damp days I can see quite a bit more color and falling leaves in the next few weeks.


The shortening days will also be playing a big role. Anyone know how much daylight we've lost since June 21?

#23
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 01:43 PM

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If the JMA & CFSv2 weeklies are right, I'm expecting to see widespread Frosts...maybe Freezes up north for Week 3-4...certain variables seem to be aligning for a dislodge of Autumn cold.  I mentioned before, that I had a hunch we would probably see our first Freezes a bit earlier this year.  Looking like that is a real possibility.

 

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_4.png



#24
Tom

Posted 17 August 2017 - 02:54 PM

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We've been talking about the state of the QBO on here and I just read from another met his comments regarding the new ECMWF Weeklies and the magnitude of blocking showing up.

 

 

 

The high latitude blocking next several weeks likely result of QBO transition to negative. Leaves a lot to be desired in the coming months.

 

 

With that being said, look out for 2 significant shots of cold down the central Plains where it has been coldest thus far this August.  Very interesting pattern setting up.

 

DHdxEmoVoAAfGli.jpg

 

DHdyLBnXgAA1Q0z.jpg

DHdxEmoVoAEwfPo.jpg

 

 

 

 

Remember this map when we start seeing the cold anomalies next month!  Might look very similar for Sept...

 

MonthTDeptUS.png



#25
Hawkeye

Posted 17 August 2017 - 06:12 PM

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The shortening days will also be playing a big role. Anyone know how much daylight we've lost since June 21?

 

About 1.5 hours.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#26
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:57 PM

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Pretty much going with 2000 as my top analog so far with 2008 in a close second.

#27
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 03:18 AM

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The Weather Company's Fall Outlook:

 

Seeing a similar ridge in the SW among the various models...

 

https://weather.com/...ctober-november

 

wsi_fall_0816.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7



#28
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:08 AM

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Pretty much going with 2000 as my top analog so far with 2008 in a close second.

I'll take a December 2000 start to Winter... :P


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#29
Niko

Posted 18 August 2017 - 06:29 AM

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I am hoping for a fast start to Winter ( early Dec ) and have it last thru early to mid March. Tbh, I don't mind a small break in January.


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#30
jaster220

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:21 AM

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I'll take a December 2000 start to Winter... :P

 

Iirc, all-time snowiest in the BC/Marshall area with the official site hitting 55" on the month! Yeah, I'd do that again - if pushed! :lol:


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 11.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 11.4 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:31 AM

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Iirc, all-time snowiest in the BC/Marshall area with the official site hitting 55" on the month! Yeah, I'd do that again - if pushed! :lol:

That was a share the wealth type of Winter. Lincoln had a rocking December as well.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#32
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:56 AM

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2000-01 was the fastest start to Winter in my state's history. I am leaning towards the overall pattern of that year just more scaled back. Something between 2000 and 2008 (very similar pattern only warmer with ridge very close to Rockies/likely westerly qbo in '08 also causing ridge over greater western US.)

If it goes wrong then I'm leaning towards a year like 2012-13.
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#33
bud2380

Posted 18 August 2017 - 12:44 PM

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last Fall was about the best weather I can ever recall for Sept-Nov.  It was perfect and warm.  I'd love a repeat of that, but that seems very unlikely.  


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#34
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 01:54 PM

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WxBell's temp forecast...

 

December_2017_February_2018.png

 

 

 

Euro Seasonal NDJ...

 

n_j_500.png

 

Month to month look on the Euro Seasonal:

 

November...

 

nov__500_mb.png

 

December...

 

dec_500(1).png

 

 

January...

 

jan_500.png

 

 

 

The implication is there would be a fast start to winter that hits and holds. While last winter December tried to get cold, the winter before we saw it in January during the the Super El Niño. In 2014-15, it was November and then late January into February. This winter has the look of more like 2013-14, that had a faster start.

 

 

 

 

However, by February, the Euro model pulls back:

feb_500.png

 

 

Looks like a coast-coast active storm track like some of the other models that have been shown..

 

winter_precip(1).png



#35
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 01:55 PM

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Continuation...

 

 

Joe D'Aleo's Pioneer Model (FWIW, it nailed the '13-'14 Winter)...something is brewin' for this winter...I'm seeing some intriguing signs that it can deliver for a lot of us on here...I'd like to see what the new cycling pattern has to say by end of November.

 

 

 

pioneer_500_mb.jpg

 

pioeer_temps.png

 

 

 

 

JB's Analog's for Precip/Temp:

 

cd71_58_91_226_219_10_21_24_prcp.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

cd71_58_91_226_219_10_20_43_prcp.png

 

 

Joe D'Aleo's Pioneer Model (FWIW, it nailed the '13-'14 Winter)...something is brewin' for this winter to have some legs...

 

 

 

pioneer_500_mb.jpg

 

pioeer_temps.png

 

 

 

 

JB's Analog's for Precip/Temp:

 

cd71_58_91_226_219_10_21_24_prcp.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

cd71_58_91_226_219_10_20_43_prcp.png

 

 


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#36
Tom

Posted 18 August 2017 - 02:09 PM

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Here's a link to Wx Bell's site to view the Public Prelim Winter Forecast...

 

https://www.weatherb...-winter-2017-18



#37
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:29 PM

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Sounds like JB is thinking like me. I haven't had WxBell in 2 or 3 months so I had no idea where his idea was headed. The maps shown are pretty much dead on with what I was thinking from my earlier post about 2000-01, 2008-09 and now 2010-11 and 12-13. Don't really see this past winter's pattern coming back this year. Those winters listed above all had an incredible likeness to each other despite being so different with temp extremes. Definitely a good blend of years with intent to capture the overall pattern which I'm in really good agreement with. Warmer years of same or similar pattern being 2008 and 2012-13 and colder years being 2000-01 and 2010-11 for reference of the extremes here.
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#38
Tom

Posted 19 August 2017 - 05:31 AM

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Today's 00z CFSv2 flashing possible widespread Frosts to open Labor Day weekend up north???

 

CFSNA_850_temp_348.png

 

 

CFSNA_850_temp_372.png



#39
james1976

Posted 19 August 2017 - 04:04 PM

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Man this is nice looking stuff! Anytime i see 13-14 im excited.
Im in the Siouxland area this weekend. Very nice weather right now but wanted to check in. Thanks for the updates.
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#40
Tom

Posted 20 August 2017 - 05:39 AM

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CFSv2 trends for Sept...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201709.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201709.gif

 

 

 

Recent run at 700mb...

 

CFSv2.z700.20170820.201709.gif



#41
Niko

Posted 20 August 2017 - 06:46 AM

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After a long range weather discussion with my neighbor yesterday, he believes that winter will be more harsh this year than last year, but, nothing of extreme measures. I.E, average snowfall in Detroit, MI is 44", so maybe more like 55-65". That is what he is looking at. I asked him if he can specify how and why he believes these numbers and he simply replied back by saying..."A gut Feeling" :lol: :rolleyes:



#42
OKwx2k4

Posted 20 August 2017 - 08:32 AM

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CFSv2 trends for Sept...

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201709.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201709.gif



Recent run at 700mb...

CFSv2.z700.20170820.201709.gif


That looks amazing. Ready for some 50/70 weather. Would be awesome to feel some non-humid air also.

#43
Tom

Posted 21 August 2017 - 05:02 AM

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The JAMSTEC is in and it seems to be on the opposite end of where the other models are heading.  Firstly, its showing a ENSO-Neutral (+) SST across the PAC.  Based on current conditions in the equatorial PAC and where they are heading, I think it may be off its rocker.

 

 

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1aug2017.gif

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1aug2017.gif

 

 

Here are the temp/precip forecasts for Autumn & Winter...

 

temp2.glob.SON2017.1aug2017.gif

 

tprep.glob.SON2017.1aug2017.gif

 

 

Winter...

 

temp2.glob.DJF2018.1aug2017.gif

 

tprep.glob.DJF2018.1aug2017.gif



#44
LNK_Weather

Posted 21 August 2017 - 05:10 AM

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Yeah I'm not buying the warm neutral and nonexistent-warm PDO thing it has going. Temperature outlook seems on par, though.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#45
james1976

Posted 21 August 2017 - 06:41 AM

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Warm n dry!!! Lol

#46
jaster220

Posted 21 August 2017 - 07:56 AM

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However, by February, the Euro model pulls back:

 

Not surprising really. At our latitude(s) it's really difficult to get below normal regime for more than a couple months. So, if you get a frigid Dec like some of the analogs are pointing to, you likely sacrifice February imho.

 

Ofc, there are the (rare) exceptions, so the Euro could be wrong in the end. Loving the trends at this point though, and quite frankly, a couple months of solid winter is fine by me. Can always trek north on the front/back end of those two months to extend the season if I want to. Basically here, 2000-01 was all about late November to the NY. 90% of winter happened in those 6 wks. The action was hot-n-heavy but blew it's load so badly, that after the new year it was boring and the snow pack didn't get refreshed. I'd trade the all in one month plan for a more evenly spread winter.


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 11.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 11.4 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#47
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 August 2017 - 08:01 AM

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Yeah, if the sst are wrong in the model, have to assume the whole thing is.

#48
jaster220

Posted 21 August 2017 - 12:59 PM

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Here's a link to Wx Bell's site to view the Public Prelim Winter Forecast...

 

https://www.weatherb...-winter-2017-18

 

This should be the key take-away:

 


  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 11.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 11.4 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#49
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 August 2017 - 01:52 PM

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Gotta keep that ridge pulled south and west this winter or I will be watching you guys have fun while I get rain and ice all season long. If my thinking for this winter fails, that will be how it does it.

#50
Tom

Posted 21 August 2017 - 02:57 PM

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Interesting, latest ECMWF Weeklies showing the early season dislodge of Arctic cold knifing down the central CONUS...been worried about this happening for Ag belt farmers.

 

 

DHySiRPU0AALq8A.jpg