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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#5651
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:25 PM

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The amount of blocking is unlike anything I've seen.

 

Its all in the wrong spot.


  • MossMan likes this

Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#5652
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:40 PM

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Best late Christmas gift ever. Is this colder than 2008?

 

-40 would probably be the coldest ever here.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#5653
snow_wizard

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:41 PM

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Its all in the wrong spot.

 

As we've talked about many times...we always score in blocky La Nina winters.  It's unblocked La Nina winters that flop.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#5654
umadbro

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:48 PM

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Anyone have a cherry picker around?

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#5655
ShawniganLake

Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:52 PM

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27 days with rain at YVR in November. Tied the record from 1953. Total amounts were near normal. It rained often, but not that heavy.
  • wx_statman likes this

#5656
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:02 AM

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27 days with rain at YVR in November. Tied the record from 1953. Total amounts were near normal. It rained often, but not that heavy.

 

Same here, this area ended up with 27 days of measurable precip but with a total only around 5".



#5657
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:03 AM

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Same here, this area ended up with 27 days of measurable precip but with a total only around 5".


We are well past 12” here, with an average closer to 9”. What’s your average down that way

#5658
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:15 AM

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The EPS control model shows an Arctic blast just after day 10.


  • DJ Droppin likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#5659
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:16 AM

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The EPS control model shows an Arctic blast just after day 10.

Oh? Does the block retrograde, or flatten with new Aleutian block setting up 160-150 W?


Seriously? 1 star? I get 1 star? C'mon.... 1 star? Really. That's it. I could see 3 stars, but personally I think I'm much closer to 4 stars. 1 star? This is a 5 star system, correct? 1 freaking star? You'd have to be mentally handicapped and type jibberish all day to achieve 1 pathetic star. 1 star. Really. Holy pancakes. Do I really look like I'm 1 star material? A 1 star human being to me is someone who just offers nothing and probably shits themselves not even bothering to wipe because well, they're a 1 star kinda person so why bother. 1 star. Just 1. That's crazy. I'm not even close to 2 stars. I'm fairly critical of myself, but c'mon you couldn't even click on 2 STARS? REALLY? Maybe you made a mistake and never intended on clicking 1 star. Yeah, that's it. Seriously. I mean really. I don't know where things go from here. I mean, obviously 1 star things can only go up from here! 1 star. I'm rated as someone who basically is as functioning as a lump of jello. You basically would have clicked ZERO stars, but I don't think that's an option. Pffft 1 star. Unbelievable. I may as well just call it a day and just s**t myself. Go make myself a 1 star rated sandwich and s**t myself repeatedly. Who cares if I smell or ruin my 1 star rated couch, I'm apparently just a 1 star kinda person. 1 star. Whatever. 1 star. Unreal.

 

Haha, 2 stars now! LoL


#5660
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:19 AM

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Oh? Does the block retrograde, or flatten with new Aleutian block setting up 160-150 W?

 

A trough rotates around the top and digs it back.

 

The block moves back to around 140 but is highly amplified.


  • DJ Droppin likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#5661
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:21 AM

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A trough rotates around the top and digs it back.

 

The block moves back to around 140 but is highly amplified.

Must have real nice tilt to it also.


Seriously? 1 star? I get 1 star? C'mon.... 1 star? Really. That's it. I could see 3 stars, but personally I think I'm much closer to 4 stars. 1 star? This is a 5 star system, correct? 1 freaking star? You'd have to be mentally handicapped and type jibberish all day to achieve 1 pathetic star. 1 star. Really. Holy pancakes. Do I really look like I'm 1 star material? A 1 star human being to me is someone who just offers nothing and probably shits themselves not even bothering to wipe because well, they're a 1 star kinda person so why bother. 1 star. Just 1. That's crazy. I'm not even close to 2 stars. I'm fairly critical of myself, but c'mon you couldn't even click on 2 STARS? REALLY? Maybe you made a mistake and never intended on clicking 1 star. Yeah, that's it. Seriously. I mean really. I don't know where things go from here. I mean, obviously 1 star things can only go up from here! 1 star. I'm rated as someone who basically is as functioning as a lump of jello. You basically would have clicked ZERO stars, but I don't think that's an option. Pffft 1 star. Unbelievable. I may as well just call it a day and just s**t myself. Go make myself a 1 star rated sandwich and s**t myself repeatedly. Who cares if I smell or ruin my 1 star rated couch, I'm apparently just a 1 star kinda person. 1 star. Whatever. 1 star. Unreal.

 

Haha, 2 stars now! LoL


#5662
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:23 AM

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Mark Nelsen says no snow in December at PDX.


Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#5663
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:23 AM

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There is no NAO connection to PNW weather.

There is an NAO connection to PNW climate.


Your arguments can be inconsistent sometimes. :)

If it's climate, why would you cite model runs?

Like I've said, a more favorable climate regime does favor both -NAO and Pacific blocking. But I don't see evidence for much correlation beyond that.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5664
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:25 AM

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A chilly 38F here with rain moving in. Tomorrow looks pretty wet across SW BC with heavy mountain snow.

#5665
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:32 AM

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And it is December now. Let us please post on the appropriate thread.


Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#5666
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:45 AM

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Mark Nelsen says no snow in December at PDX.

 

Absolutely insane to make that kind of proclamation.  There is actually a pretty reasonable chance at some point.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 27

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#5667
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:47 AM

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Absolutely insane to make that kind of proclamation.  There is actually a pretty reasonable chance at some point.

 

In fairness he entered a weather contest. He had to make a prediction in that case. 


  • ShawniganLake likes this

Snowfall

2017-18: 0.8"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#5668
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:20 AM

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Your arguments can be inconsistent sometimes. :)

If it's climate, why would you cite model runs?

Like I've said, a more favorable climate regime does favor both -NAO and Pacific blocking. But I don't see evidence for much correlation beyond that.


Seems like you're having a hard time tonight. ;)

The NAO/PNW climate relationship is fairly linear. The NAO relationship to PNW weather is non-linear/inconsistent, but it still affects PNW weather, in various ways, depending on the nature of the overall pattern. Just because the teleconnection is inconsistent doesn't mean it's not there.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#5669
Farmboy

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:37 AM

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Mark Nelsen says no snow in December at PDX.

. Wow, warm bias much?

#5670
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:04 AM

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Looks like PDX will end up +0.8 for November. Pretty close to average, like October.

#5671
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:13 AM

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38 here with a nice sunrise on the way.   

 

SEA ended up at +1.3 for November with 8.63 inches of rain (2+ inches above normal).    SEA is also 10.30 inches above normal for the year of 2017.



#5672
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:18 AM

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Seems like you're having a hard time tonight. ;)

The NAO/PNW climate relationship is fairly linear. The NAO relationship to PNW weather is non-linear/inconsistent, but it still affects PNW weather, in various ways, depending on the nature of the overall pattern. Just because the teleconnection is inconsistent doesn't mean it's not there.

 

I don't disagree with any of that.

 

It just seemed like you were trying to show a direct causal relationship at times between NAO and PNA (in the short term), which is what I've explained I don't see much evidence for.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5673
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:28 AM

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We are well past 12” here, with an average closer to 9”. What’s your average down that way

 

There aren't any official stations with climate data nearby, but YYJ is at 6". Looking at some long running stations around UVic I'm guessing the average for this area is probably between 4.5~5".



#5674
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:32 AM

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Looks like PDX will end up +0.8 for November. Pretty close to average, like October.

 

Pretty stark difference across the region between the two months (Nov hasn't updated through the 30th yet, but that won't change much).

 

Attached File  Oct17TDeptWRCC-NW.png   124.66KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.png   122.13KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5675
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:37 AM

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Pretty stark difference across the region between the two months (Nov hasn't updated through the 30th yet, but that won't change much).


Yep. I never said anything about the region.

#5676
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:59 AM

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Yep. I never said anything about the region.

 

Yep. Never said you did. Just making a comment related to yours.  :)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5677
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:25 AM

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I don't disagree with any of that.

It just seemed like you were trying to show a direct causal relationship at times between NAO and PNA (in the short term), which is what I've explained I don't see much evidence for.


Uh, there is a direct, harmonic relationship between the PNA/NAO. That's why they've shared signs in over 85% of winters since 1950.

Denying that the PNA and NAO constructively resonate is analogous to denying that ENSO influences the PNA.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#5678
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:30 AM

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For the record, since 1950, the seasonal correlation coefficient between the PNA and NAO is stronger then the correlation coefficient between the PNA and PDO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#5679
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:32 AM

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Uh, there is a direct, harmonic relationship between the PNA/NAO. That's why they've shared signs in over 85% of winters since 1950.

Denying that the PNA and NAO constructively resonate is analogous to denying that ENSO influences the PNA.

 

I'm open minded about it, man, I just don't see the direct relationship. Why are they so decoupled in so many months then? I don't see evidence that if the NAO goes negative in any given week or month, the PNA is likely to follow suit, or vice versa.

 

Like I've said, I totally agree that a system state that favors North Atlantic blocking will also often favor North Pacific blocking, resulting in a higher likelihood of both PNA/NAO being negative.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5680
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:40 AM

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I'm open minded about it, man, I just don't see the direct relationship. Why are they so decoupled in so many months then? I don't see evidence that if the NAO goes negative in any given week or month, the PNA is likely to follow suit, or vice versa.

Like I've said, I totally agree that a system state that favors North Atlantic blocking will also often favor North Pacific blocking, resulting in a higher likelihood of both PNA/NAO being negative.


It's a seasonal correlation, though, not a monthly one. The conduits to both run through the IO/Indo-Pacific, and the corresponding Walker/Hadley intensity ratio(s).

Higher frequency interference from the MJO/intraseasonal chaos sometimes masks the lower frequency correlation from a weekly/subseasonal perspective.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#5681
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:51 AM

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I'll run the seasonal correlation coefficient between the NAO and PNA on ESRL and post it here. It's very impressive.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#5682
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:03 PM

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I'll run the seasonal correlation coefficient between the NAO and PNA on ESRL and post it here. It's very impressive.


I believe in the seasonal correlation. Of course, correlation doesn't equal causation. ;)

I just think a few people on here were getting confused thinking that there was a direct, short term correlation between NAO and PNA.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5683
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:00 PM

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I believe in the seasonal correlation. Of course, correlation doesn't equal causation. ;)

I just think a few people on here were getting confused thinking that there was a direct, short term correlation between NAO and PNA.


From a short term/weekly standpoint, I agree with you. The relationship between the NAO & PNA is mostly a longer term phenomenon. However, it's also quite unique, because there's little statistical relationship between the PNA and the EPO/AO.

There's definitely a seasonal/yearly-scale relationship between the PNA and NAO, centered within boreal winter, however the strongest statistical relationship is found on a longer term, decadal/multi-decadal time resolution.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#5684
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:07 PM

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That said, the relationship isn't just a result of blocky patterns reflecting on both indexes in the long run. There's no statistical correlation between the PNA and EPO, and the correlation between the PNA and the WPO and NAM/AO is much weaker as well.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#5685
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:44 PM

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From a short term/weekly standpoint, I agree with you. The relationship between the NAO & PNA is mostly a longer term phenomenon. However, it's also quite unique, because there's little statistical relationship between the PNA and the EPO/AO.

There's definitely a seasonal/yearly-scale relationship between the PNA and NAO, centered within boreal winter, however the strongest statistical relationship is found on a longer term, decadal/multi-decadal time resolution.

 

Sure. But since -EPO/-PNA is more likely to bring serious cold to the PNW than -PNA/-NAO (all else being equal), you'll find people care more about PNA/EPO here.  :P


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.