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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#5651
snow_wizard

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:45 AM

snow_wizard

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Mark Nelsen says no snow in December at PDX.

 

Absolutely insane to make that kind of proclamation.  There is actually a pretty reasonable chance at some point.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#5652
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:47 AM

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Absolutely insane to make that kind of proclamation.  There is actually a pretty reasonable chance at some point.

 

In fairness he entered a weather contest. He had to make a prediction in that case. 


  • ShawniganLake likes this

Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#5653
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 02:20 AM

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Your arguments can be inconsistent sometimes. :)

If it's climate, why would you cite model runs?

Like I've said, a more favorable climate regime does favor both -NAO and Pacific blocking. But I don't see evidence for much correlation beyond that.


Seems like you're having a hard time tonight. ;)

The NAO/PNW climate relationship is fairly linear. The NAO relationship to PNW weather is non-linear/inconsistent, but it still affects PNW weather, in various ways, depending on the nature of the overall pattern. Just because the teleconnection is inconsistent doesn't mean it's not there.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#5654
Farmboy

Posted 01 December 2017 - 06:37 AM

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Mark Nelsen says no snow in December at PDX.

. Wow, warm bias much?

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#5655
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:04 AM

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Looks like PDX will end up +0.8 for November. Pretty close to average, like October.

#5656
TT-SEA

Posted 01 December 2017 - 07:13 AM

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38 here with a nice sunrise on the way.   

 

SEA ended up at +1.3 for November with 8.63 inches of rain (2+ inches above normal).    SEA is also 10.30 inches above normal for the year of 2017.



#5657
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:18 AM

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Seems like you're having a hard time tonight. ;)

The NAO/PNW climate relationship is fairly linear. The NAO relationship to PNW weather is non-linear/inconsistent, but it still affects PNW weather, in various ways, depending on the nature of the overall pattern. Just because the teleconnection is inconsistent doesn't mean it's not there.

 

I don't disagree with any of that.

 

It just seemed like you were trying to show a direct causal relationship at times between NAO and PNA (in the short term), which is what I've explained I don't see much evidence for.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5658
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:28 AM

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We are well past 12” here, with an average closer to 9”. What’s your average down that way

 

There aren't any official stations with climate data nearby, but YYJ is at 6". Looking at some long running stations around UVic I'm guessing the average for this area is probably between 4.5~5".



#5659
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:32 AM

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Looks like PDX will end up +0.8 for November. Pretty close to average, like October.

 

Pretty stark difference across the region between the two months (Nov hasn't updated through the 30th yet, but that won't change much).

 

Attached File  Oct17TDeptWRCC-NW.png   124.66KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.png   122.13KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5660
Jesse

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:37 AM

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Pretty stark difference across the region between the two months (Nov hasn't updated through the 30th yet, but that won't change much).


Yep. I never said anything about the region.

#5661
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:59 AM

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Yep. I never said anything about the region.

 

Yep. Never said you did. Just making a comment related to yours.  :)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5662
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:25 AM

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I don't disagree with any of that.

It just seemed like you were trying to show a direct causal relationship at times between NAO and PNA (in the short term), which is what I've explained I don't see much evidence for.


Uh, there is a direct, harmonic relationship between the PNA/NAO. That's why they've shared signs in over 85% of winters since 1950.

Denying that the PNA and NAO constructively resonate is analogous to denying that ENSO influences the PNA.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#5663
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:30 AM

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For the record, since 1950, the seasonal correlation coefficient between the PNA and NAO is stronger then the correlation coefficient between the PNA and PDO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#5664
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:32 AM

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Uh, there is a direct, harmonic relationship between the PNA/NAO. That's why they've shared signs in over 85% of winters since 1950.

Denying that the PNA and NAO constructively resonate is analogous to denying that ENSO influences the PNA.

 

I'm open minded about it, man, I just don't see the direct relationship. Why are they so decoupled in so many months then? I don't see evidence that if the NAO goes negative in any given week or month, the PNA is likely to follow suit, or vice versa.

 

Like I've said, I totally agree that a system state that favors North Atlantic blocking will also often favor North Pacific blocking, resulting in a higher likelihood of both PNA/NAO being negative.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5665
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:40 AM

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I'm open minded about it, man, I just don't see the direct relationship. Why are they so decoupled in so many months then? I don't see evidence that if the NAO goes negative in any given week or month, the PNA is likely to follow suit, or vice versa.

Like I've said, I totally agree that a system state that favors North Atlantic blocking will also often favor North Pacific blocking, resulting in a higher likelihood of both PNA/NAO being negative.


It's a seasonal correlation, though, not a monthly one. The conduits to both run through the IO/Indo-Pacific, and the corresponding Walker/Hadley intensity ratio(s).

Higher frequency interference from the MJO/intraseasonal chaos sometimes masks the lower frequency correlation from a weekly/subseasonal perspective.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#5666
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 10:51 AM

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I'll run the seasonal correlation coefficient between the NAO and PNA on ESRL and post it here. It's very impressive.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#5667
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:03 PM

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I'll run the seasonal correlation coefficient between the NAO and PNA on ESRL and post it here. It's very impressive.


I believe in the seasonal correlation. Of course, correlation doesn't equal causation. ;)

I just think a few people on here were getting confused thinking that there was a direct, short term correlation between NAO and PNA.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5668
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:00 PM

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I believe in the seasonal correlation. Of course, correlation doesn't equal causation. ;)

I just think a few people on here were getting confused thinking that there was a direct, short term correlation between NAO and PNA.


From a short term/weekly standpoint, I agree with you. The relationship between the NAO & PNA is mostly a longer term phenomenon. However, it's also quite unique, because there's little statistical relationship between the PNA and the EPO/AO.

There's definitely a seasonal/yearly-scale relationship between the PNA and NAO, centered within boreal winter, however the strongest statistical relationship is found on a longer term, decadal/multi-decadal time resolution.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#5669
Phil

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:07 PM

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That said, the relationship isn't just a result of blocky patterns reflecting on both indexes in the long run. There's no statistical correlation between the PNA and EPO, and the correlation between the PNA and the WPO and NAM/AO is much weaker as well.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#5670
Front Ranger

Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:44 PM

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From a short term/weekly standpoint, I agree with you. The relationship between the NAO & PNA is mostly a longer term phenomenon. However, it's also quite unique, because there's little statistical relationship between the PNA and the EPO/AO.

There's definitely a seasonal/yearly-scale relationship between the PNA and NAO, centered within boreal winter, however the strongest statistical relationship is found on a longer term, decadal/multi-decadal time resolution.

 

Sure. But since -EPO/-PNA is more likely to bring serious cold to the PNW than -PNA/-NAO (all else being equal), you'll find people care more about PNA/EPO here.  :P


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.