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December 2017 Observations and Discussions

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#1
Niko

Posted 26 November 2017 - 10:32 AM

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Hope it is okay with all Mods on here for starting a new thread:

 

December will be getting colder eventually and snowstorms should start brewing for a lot of us on here. It will be a colder Winter for sure and snowier for some.

 

Lets all discuss and enjoy December fun...........


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#2
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:16 AM

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Some weather porn to kick this off with too.
Attached File  eps_z500a_5d_exnamer_61(7).png   314.92KB   0 downloads

Give me this pattern and I'm not worried about a thing. :) Just waiting patiently.
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#3
Tom

Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:38 AM

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Niko, I just realized you started a thread already...my bad!  I'll just delete mine and post here.


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#4
Tom

Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:40 AM

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After back-to-back dud winter seasons, many of us on here have been waiting for a real winter.  The month of December is showing favorable signs that it could be one that we will remember.....but for what???  How will we remember this December???  Who gets the snows first???  Will the Polar Vortex be making a visit sometime around the Winter Solstice???  IMO, this month will feature bountiful winter weather after we get past the opening 4 days or so of the month.

 

With the holiday season in full swing and Christmas decor on display, I think its time for nature to deliver the goods with a fresh cover of snow.  Latest 12z GEFS are increasingly looking more wintry for those out in the Plains/Midwest during the later half of the opening week into Week 2 of December.

 

Let's discuss...


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#5
Niko

Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:47 AM

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Niko, I just realized you started a thread already...my bad!  I'll just delete mine and post here.

:lol:



#6
Niko

Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:49 AM

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That map looks sweet. It has me in the 2-4inch category. I'll accept that in a heartbeat.

 

Jaster is in the higher level color (3-5")


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#7
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2017 - 12:23 PM

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I'll take that GEFS map too. I wouldn't mind a good 3" snowfall to start off.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#8
gimmesnow

Posted 26 November 2017 - 12:26 PM

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I really hope this weather turns around, I'm going to get the sailboat going if this torch doesn't stop.



#9
Tom

Posted 26 November 2017 - 12:49 PM

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Gary Lezak sounds pretty pumped about December and he mentions their in-house model is very cold Dec 15th-30th.  He sounded convinced that the Vortex will be returning during this month along with many storm systems.  As for the LRC, he is still thinking 45-51 days is the cycle length.


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#10
Niko

Posted 26 November 2017 - 01:58 PM

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My temps get considerably colder after the 6th. Highs forecasted to be near 30F and lows dipping in the upper teens. That is a good 5-10 degrees below average.

 

Btw: Models have the MJO going into 7 and 8 in December which typically provides a cold pattern. Things are looking good.



#11
NEJeremy

Posted 26 November 2017 - 02:32 PM

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Gary Lezak sounds pretty pumped about December and he mentions their in-house model is very cold Dec 15th-30th. He sounded convinced that the Vortex will be returning during this month along with many storm systems. As for the LRC, he is still thinking 45-51 days is the cycle length.


I’m curious on that length bc if that’s the case than what happened to our big storm we should have had the last couple of days? Back on October 6th I remember getting hit by a big storm in Omaha. We had thunderstorms and almost 3” of rain. 45-51 days would have had something nice moving through between the 20-26th.

#12
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 26 November 2017 - 02:42 PM

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I’m curious on that length bc if that’s the case than what happened to our big storm we should have had the last couple of days? Back on October 6th I remember getting hit by a big storm in Omaha. We had thunderstorms and almost 3” of rain. 45-51 days would have had something nice moving through between the 20-26th.

Looked like as we got closer, things trended such that any developing lee cyclone was quickly overrun and suppressed by a trailing cold front from the primary surface low in MB. Between FH30-48, you can see the energy come across the rockies and try to get something going, but then gets shoved to the SW over the panhandles and dissipate. I have a feeling if the northern stream vortex weren't so strong and didn't force the crashing cold front, the southern branch would've had a much better chance to do something. But the next system is still there on the GFS, and the euro cuts it off over the SW. 


2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.2"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 1.4")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#13
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2017 - 03:13 PM

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18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster.

 

 

Attached File  GFSUS_prec_ptype_204.png   136.59KB   0 downloads

 

Looks like it has it happening at about the same time the warm air is ushered out for good, too. Maybe we can get our hopes up that the cold moves in quicker!  :D


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#14
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2017 - 03:32 PM

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[quote name="LNK_Weather" post="275340" timestamp="1511738006"]18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster.
 
 
Good. So when the SE and weaker trend happens, should still be a respectable system.

#15
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2017 - 03:53 PM

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Niko buddy, here you go. Wanted you to feel right at home:

https://www.nymetroweather.com/blog/
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#16
Niko

Posted 26 November 2017 - 04:04 PM

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Niko buddy, here you go. Wanted you to feel right at home:

https://www.nymetroweather.com/blog/

:D



#17
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2017 - 05:52 PM

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[quote name="LNK_Weather" post="275340" timestamp="1511738006"]18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster.
 
 
That's a YUUUUGE storm! If only it weren't on a 200+ hr 18z GFS

#18
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2017 - 06:18 PM

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BAMwx tweet on Euro run from hr216 to end of run:

”This pattern is as good as it gets for the Ohio Valley to the NE for cold and snow. Buckle up!"

#19
Andrew NE

Posted 26 November 2017 - 06:28 PM

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I am very curious of what Gary has to say tomorrow night, I'm honestly a bit confused on how the length of the cycle is what he thinks. I must also say he is a snow enthusiast but a realist when he gets excited about a pattern it is usually a good sign.
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#20
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2017 - 06:34 PM

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MJO forecasted to pulse thru phases 5-6 going into Dec, giving us this look @ 500mb


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#21
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2017 - 06:43 PM

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#BSR map @ 500 mb with CONUS super-imposed. Iirc, SLP normally tracks SE of the low at 500 mb



#22
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:06 PM

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No worries. Imagine there will be a lot more interested in the LRC before this week is over.

#23
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:11 PM

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My early input is that I doubt I get snow out of the 1st December storm(5th). Any would be a pure bonus. I'd expect more of a severe weather event near the 5th and the widespread winter threat being centered more toward the 10th-12th as the cold fills and settles in for the month. Nearly T minus 4 days til official winter and really looks primed for a great start.
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#24
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:26 PM

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Looks like the 0z canadian model took out the storm completely and the northern stream won

 

gem_z500a_us_33.png


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https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#25
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:33 PM

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00z GFS still has a storm. Unimpressive compared to the 18z monster but that's not saying too much. 14" bullseye in SE SD.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#26
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:47 PM

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Looks like the 0z canadian model took out the storm completely and the northern stream won

 

 

It's hard to take a 10-day GEM run seriously, especially when it comes to weather out here.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#27
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 November 2017 - 08:52 PM

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It's hard to take a 10-day GEM run seriously, especially when it comes to weather out here.

Yeah the GEM has probably been the most unreliable model this year so far. Just posting it for laughs. BUT...the GFS seems to be more east with this run and a tad south even gives us thunderstorms ahead of it and light snow on the backside.


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#28
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 November 2017 - 09:30 PM

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Yeah the GEM has probably been the most unreliable model this year so far. Just posting it for laughs. BUT...the GFS seems to be more east with this run and a tad south even gives us thunderstorms ahead of it and light snow on the backside.


GFS is a scenario I can see happening. A sad one, but realistic. I'd love it if we didn't have 3 straight Decembers with thunderstorms. Oh well, at least it's QPF. Good for the farmers.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#29
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 November 2017 - 09:51 PM

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GFS is a scenario I can see happening. A sad one, but realistic. I'd love it if we didn't have 3 straight Decembers with thunderstorms. Oh well, at least it's QPF. Good for the farmers.

it's still a long ways out. theres even several ensembles of the GFS that have this thing hitting Kansas and Missouri with snow and missing us so anythings game at this point.


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#30
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2017 - 04:58 AM

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it's still a long ways out. theres even several ensembles of the GFS that have this thing hitting Kansas and Missouri with snow and missing us so anythings game at this point.

 

Yeah, this system is a long way from decided. When the 17-18th storm was flashed, it was across NMI, and remained that way for several days. Then began trending to it's actual track well south of the state. Too early to draw to a conclusion at this range. The goal right now should be maintaining the potential.  ;)



#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:12 AM

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Both GFS and Euro proceed to show lovely rain for us while those to our West get hammered with snow.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#32
james1976

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:21 AM

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Thats a hard cutter on the GFS. Geez

#33
Tom

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:31 AM

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Glad to see both the Euro/GFS still showing the Dec 5th-6th system.  I think the Euro is showing the more plausible solution and showcasing a hard cutter.  What is interesting, both GEFS/EPS showing some energy in the deep south across TX that has potential to develop and track along the developing boundary.



#34
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:39 AM

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My temps take a plunge during the 6-7th timeframe. Warm air to the south colliding w much colder air to the north should have a low pressure area somewhere in that boundaryline.



#35
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:41 AM

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A Dakota cutter after several long weeks of boring weather is a kick to the junk. But, we’ll see what happens. Still plenty of time to let this thing play out.

MSP officially only has 0.6” of snow in Nov (although about 4” imby). Already 9” below normal on the season.

#36
Tom

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:46 AM

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I've never seen the EPS show such a deep long lasting -AO in a very long time.  Of course, I didn't have the access to the various models we do nowadays but to see run after run showing such a strong signal for long lasting blocking is wonderful to see.

 

Joe D' Aleo had a nice write up this morning about the tanking AO and comparing it to the 2009-10 & 1995-96 seasons.  


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#37
Tom

Posted 27 November 2017 - 05:53 AM

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The explosive nature of the system north of Japan is intriguing and the track has somewhat changed from a few days ago.  It has potential to translate into a less of a hard cutter, but bc it tracks so far north it's hard not to discount that.  However, we have to consider the amount of blocking that has developed over N.A. that may adjust the track.  Should be a fun winter storm to track over the next few days.

 

 


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#38
Tom

Posted 27 November 2017 - 06:23 AM

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@ Okwx, nice looking maps down there for ya, ey???  The coming 500mb pattern post 4th-6th system is going to carve out one deep trough across our sub forum.  Things are going to get interesting.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png



#39
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2017 - 07:13 AM

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I've never seen the EPS show such a deep long lasting -AO in a very long time.  Of course, I didn't have the access to the various models we do nowadays but to see run after run showing such a strong signal for long lasting blocking is wonderful to see.

 

Joe D' Aleo had a nice write up this morning about the tanking AO and comparing it to the 2009-10 & 1995-96 seasons.  

 

KBUF mentioning it as a key factor of cold-n-snow returning:

 

BUF NWS thoughts: 

After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the past
few days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place during
the second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weaken
and break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to take
shape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. The
blocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenland
and the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negative
NAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become more
negative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic.
The MJO
(Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though the
period with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulation
pattern.

The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building west
coast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote the
development of a longwave trough over central and eastern North
America during the second week in December. This should allow for
more cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the north
central and northeastern U.S., including our region, starting
somewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is all
predicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern change
verifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow.

 


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#40
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2017 - 07:15 AM

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The explosive nature of the system north of Japan is intriguing and the track has somewhat changed from a few days ago.  It has potential to translate into a less of a hard cutter, but bc it tracks so far north it's hard not to discount that.  However, we have to consider the amount of blocking that has developed over N.A. that may adjust the track.  Should be a fun winter storm to track over the next few days.

 

That's (2) potent systems closely spaced just like we had in early October. Hopefully, someone scores flakes now that we're two months down the road.  ;)


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#41
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:10 AM

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@ Okwx, nice looking maps down there for ya, ey??? The coming 500mb pattern post 4th-6th system is going to carve out one deep trough across our sub forum. Things are going to get interesting.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png



gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png


Yup. May be a December to remember for me. I'm ready for it!
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#42
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:12 AM

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I don't ever remember seeing an AO modelled like that ever. That's impressive.

#43
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:14 AM

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That's (2) potent systems closely spaced just like we had in early October. Hopefully, someone scores flakes now that we're two months down the road. ;)


I think I will this time. I was looking forward to these storms coming back again.
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#44
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:36 AM

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Gfs now took away the entire system letting the northern stream win out LOL

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#45
NebraskaWX

Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:37 AM

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Gfs now took away the entire system letting the northern stream win out LOL

Was just about to say the same thing. I mean it doesn't even do a thing lol, just completely obliterates it almost. Yuck. We'll see what the EURO does, GFS always pulls this at this range anyway.


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#46
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:01 AM

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I don't see the 12z GFS being accurate in regards to the flow. It brings back that yucky Western ridge, which I think is kinda unrealistic. I'll buy it when I see more runs.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#47
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:05 AM

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The GEM tries putting something together around the same timeframe that the GFS runs showed yesterday. Doesn’t quite come together but the idea is there.
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#48
Snowlover76

Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:26 AM

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Nice to see the Dakotas getting it again after we have weeks of boring wx.



This is a carbon copy of last year. Uggghhh

#49
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:38 AM

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Nice to see the Dakotas getting it again after we have weeks of boring wx.



This is a carbon copy of last year. Uggghhh

 

:huh: So far they've got cyber snow on cyber Monday, so I hope they have fun cyber shoveling!  :rolleyes:  


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#50
Niko

Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:44 AM

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Man, looking at my December Outlook (10day that is) shows that temps really cool down quite a bit. I stand a good shot in not getting outta the 20s for highs. Lots of peeps on here will feel the December chill. Now, all we need is a storm to combine it with. Someone will get blasted. Question is, who?! :unsure:


  • St Paul Storm likes this