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The Winter Solstice Storm

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#51
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:08 PM

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Doesn't seem any more north than it was at 18z.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png


It dug far enough south but it didn’t look good at the start

#52
Andrew NE

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:10 PM

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Well crap, that run wasn't what I wanted to see.

#53
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:12 PM

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What do ya know, nebraska missing out again lol.

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#54
bud2380

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:12 PM

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1-3” for most of Iowa. 1” to the south, 3” to the north. Wisconsin with 3-5” for a good chunk of the state but 6”+ for the eastern most counties along the lake. For MBY looks I’ll be lucky to get anything over an inch.

#55
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:13 PM

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If there's any positives, the southern wave is stronger and it dug more into OK. For some reason, precip did not follow suit and never really got anywhere. 


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#56
Grizzcoat

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:14 PM

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Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_144.gif   47.7KB   0 downloads



#57
Hawkeye

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:21 PM

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The nice, sharp upper trough digs into the central Rockies, but as it ejects eastward the northern stream comes in and stretches it apart, so it's just rather feeble overall.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#58
Grizzcoat

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:27 PM

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Sad to say- I'd sign up in a heartbeat (and I think many on here would) for the 2" the GFS shows for mby.



#59
jaster220

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:30 PM

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None of which adds up for a pattern with such potential. Something will happen, but it will be when the cold is on the move, similar to the 4-5th system. First system may end-up being just the warm-up act..

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#60
Andrew NE

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:31 PM

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Sad to say- I'd sign up in a heartbeat (and I think many on here would) for the 2" the GFS shows for mby.


Absolutely, 2" snow would be great at this point.

#61
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:46 PM

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So the ukie digs it into Texas

And next frame

http://meteocentre.c...d=latest&hh=144

#62
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:51 PM

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So the ukie digs it into Texas

And next frame

http://meteocentre.c...d=latest&hh=144

Wow what the hell, that actually looks good.


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#63
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:54 PM

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I think that’s the first model I’ve seen in awhile dig it that far south which would be pretty big

No blocking showing up tho which is why it went so far north

#64
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 08:55 PM

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I think that’s the first model I’ve seen in awhile dig it that far south which would be pretty big

No blocking showing up tho which is why it went so far north

Wish i could see precipitation maps. Tomorrow should be the day the pattern in the Pacific gets past an area the models have a hard time with, so maybe we should start to see some better turn outs. Not giving up until the fat lady sings.


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#65
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 09:24 PM

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Come on EURO...throw us a bone!!!!


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#66
Hawkeye

Posted 16 December 2017 - 09:36 PM

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144 hr UK precip map

 

ukmet_6hr_precip_conus_144.png


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#67
Grizzcoat

Posted 16 December 2017 - 09:43 PM

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Thats interesting.



#68
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 09:45 PM

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144 hr UK precip map

 

 

How much of that is snow exactly?


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#69
Hawkeye

Posted 16 December 2017 - 09:49 PM

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How much of that is snow exactly?

 

Probably just far nw Iowa and points north and west.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#70
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 09:51 PM

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Probably just far nw Iowa and points north and west.

It's probably better then you think. But I actually love the placement of what the uk is showing


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#71
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 09:52 PM

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Probably just far nw Iowa and points north and west.

Not a whole lot going on up there then. NW side of the surface low looks deprived. But that hard cutter evolution is unique among the models.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#72
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:17 PM

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Well euro is way warmer through 96 compared to 0z yesterday

#73
Hawkeye

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:20 PM

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Here's the wx.graphics UK page.  You can see the storm is beginning to blow up at 144 hrs as it crosses central Iowa.  The low is 989 mb and it's just beginning to make the connection to a deep moisture feed.

 

http://wx.graphics/m...ukmet/ukmet.php


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#74
Andrew NE

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:22 PM

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Looks further south at hour 120

#75
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:23 PM

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Looks further south at hour 120


Looks farther north tbh

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=conus&dpdt=

#76
Andrew NE

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:25 PM

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Crap. Yes you are right. I was looking at the secondary LP down in texas

#77
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:28 PM

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The splitting of the energy into 2 lows seems like a new evolution this run. Northerly component tracks right thru Iowa and ends up being a Minneapolis special.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#78
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:30 PM

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The splitting of the energy into 2 lows seems like a new evolution this run. Northerly component tracks right thru Iowa and ends up being a Minneapolis special.


Yup it actually digs it way south and then a piece breaks off and heads right through ia and WI

#79
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:33 PM

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Yup it actually digs it way south and then a piece breaks off and heads right through ia and WI

But why though. You'd think it it was gonna dig like that it would stay in one piece instead of a piece breaking off and heading straight into the feature that was making it dig in the first place. There's a lot of high pressure to the N/NW of the system while it digs. 


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#80
Andrew NE

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:34 PM

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Dang, that jumped way north. No bueno.

#81
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:35 PM

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I'm not sure if NWLinnCountIA will approve of this post or if its too negative for him..but come on really? Euro? Going to punch us in the gut 5 days before Christmas with another brown dry and cold one. And too the people who say well at least its cold..what good does that do? We've had cold enough air for snow at times since late October, this month is full of s**t and I'm not afraid to say it here. And I can rant here if I want too as well. 

 

This model run went even further north and gives Omaha / Lincoln metro a dusting or less. Actually its even further north then the GFS but stronger. I know it can change still but man, you know when the trend is a bad one 5 days out its not good. Hoping for a miracle.


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#82
hlcater

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:37 PM

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I'm not sure if NWLinnCountIA will approve of this post or if its too negative for him..but come on really? Euro? Going to punch us in the gut 5 days before Christmas with another brown dry and cold one. And too the people who say well at least its cold..what good does that do? We've had cold enough air for snow at times since late October, this month is full of s**t and I'm not afraid to say it here. And I can rant here if I want too as well. 

 

This model run went even further north and gives Omaha / Lincoln metro a dusting or less. Actually its even further north then the GFS but stronger. I know it can change still but man, you know when the trend is a bad one 5 days out its not good. Hoping for a miracle.

lol. You're quickly going on the list with snowlover. Whining does not further discussion, nor does it do any good. That's a hard fact.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#83
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:40 PM

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Euro explodes the storm once it gets into MI

Gets down to 985
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#84
Hawkeye

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:41 PM

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ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_150.png


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#85
Money

Posted 16 December 2017 - 10:42 PM

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But why though. You'd think it it was gonna dig like that it would stay in one piece instead of a piece breaking off and heading straight into the feature that was making it dig in the first place. There's a lot of high pressure to the N/NW of the system while it digs.


Yeah Idk maybe Tom can explain it better but I have no idea why it does that

#86
NEJeremy

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:08 PM

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Next!

#87
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:12 PM

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Next!

Yeah I will revert back to my earlier prediction of no measurable snow in Omaha for this whole month lol.


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#88
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:17 PM

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You know you are desperate when you are posting the NAVY model..but it looks the best lol. It shows a nice wound up system

 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_28.png

 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_29.png


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#89
Grizzcoat

Posted 16 December 2017 - 11:57 PM

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-.

Yeah I will revert back to my earlier prediction of no measurable snow in Omaha for this whole month lol.

Look I'am not trying to argue that where you live in OMA hasn't seen measurable snow- but officially OMA has seen measureable snow this month on the 6th with .1". I know no one "lives at the airport" but the observer there on duty measured .1" and that is the "official" snow measuring spot for the OMA area since the winter 1935-1936.

 

 

Station Thread for Omaha Area, NE   Name Period in Thread 1 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1994 to 12/2016 2 OMAHA WSFO 06/1977 to 12/1993 3 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1948 to 05/1977 4 OMAHA EPPLEY (supplied by NWS) 06/1935 to 12/1947 5 OMAHA WBO (supplied by NWS) 01/1871 to 05/1935

 

FTR- the NWS at most airports recorded the official climate data until ASOS/ CWO's arrived ( for OMA that was Jan 1994)  and in some cases- placement for the new WSR-88 Doppler radar forced them to move offices from airports to areas away from urban areas more suitable for radar location as well as the cost of purchasing the land to do so.  And when the radar moved that meant the NWS office had to as well due to restrictions on the distance the two can be away from each other. That is why many WSR-88 radars are on or very near Federal land cutting the cost. Contract Weather Observers (CWO) working jointly with the NWS and FAA (now only for the FAA) then and now provide the climate data at airports (preserving the climate location)  when offices moved, and in some cases a considerable distance away causing potential obvious errors in the climate record.  Most NWS offices still record climate data but it's superseded by airport climate data provided by CWO's and ASOS since that is where data has been recorded in the Midwest since the 1930's.  



#90
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 17 December 2017 - 12:35 AM

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-.

Look I'am not trying to argue that where you live in OMA hasn't seen measurable snow- but officially OMA has seen measureable snow this month on the 6th with .1". I know no one "lives at the airport" but the observer there on duty measured .1" and that is the "official" snow measuring spot for the OMA area since the winter 1935-1936.

 

 

Station Thread for Omaha Area, NE   Name Period in Thread 1 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1994 to 12/2016 2 OMAHA WSFO 06/1977 to 12/1993 3 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1948 to 05/1977 4 OMAHA EPPLEY (supplied by NWS) 06/1935 to 12/1947 5 OMAHA WBO (supplied by NWS) 01/1871 to 05/1935

 

FTR- the NWS at most airports recorded the official climate data until ASOS/ CWO's arrived ( for OMA that was Jan 1994)  and in some cases- placement for the new WSR-88 Doppler radar forced them to move offices from airports to areas away from urban areas more suitable for radar location as well as the cost of purchasing the land to do so.  And when the radar moved that meant the NWS office had to as well due to restrictions on the distance the two can be away from each other. That is why many WSR-88 radars are on or very near Federal land cutting the cost. Contract Weather Observers (CWO) working jointly with the NWS and FAA (now only for the FAA) then and now provide the climate data at airports (preserving the climate location)  when offices moved, and in some cases a considerable distance away causing potential obvious errors in the climate record.  Most NWS offices still record climate data but it's superseded by airport climate data provided by CWO's and ASOS since that is where data has been recorded in the Midwest since the 1930's.  

LOL you got me. 

 

Maybe the models will pull a hail mary today and go with the UKMET / NAVY.


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#91
clintbeed1993

Posted 17 December 2017 - 01:11 AM

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-.

Look I'am not trying to argue that where you live in OMA hasn't seen measurable snow- but officially OMA has seen measureable snow this month on the 6th with .1". I know no one "lives at the airport" but the observer there on duty measured .1" and that is the "official" snow measuring spot for the OMA area since the winter 1935-1936.

 

 

Station Thread for Omaha Area, NE   Name Period in Thread 1 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1994 to 12/2016 2 OMAHA WSFO 06/1977 to 12/1993 3 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1948 to 05/1977 4 OMAHA EPPLEY (supplied by NWS) 06/1935 to 12/1947 5 OMAHA WBO (supplied by NWS) 01/1871 to 05/1935

 

FTR- the NWS at most airports recorded the official climate data until ASOS/ CWO's arrived ( for OMA that was Jan 1994)  and in some cases- placement for the new WSR-88 Doppler radar forced them to move offices from airports to areas away from urban areas more suitable for radar location as well as the cost of purchasing the land to do so.  And when the radar moved that meant the NWS office had to as well due to restrictions on the distance the two can be away from each other. That is why many WSR-88 radars are on or very near Federal land cutting the cost. Contract Weather Observers (CWO) working jointly with the NWS and FAA (now only for the FAA) then and now provide the climate data at airports (preserving the climate location)  when offices moved, and in some cases a considerable distance away causing potential obvious errors in the climate record.  Most NWS offices still record climate data but it's superseded by airport climate data provided by CWO's and ASOS since that is where data has been recorded in the Midwest since the 1930's.  

 

Thanks for dropping such amazing wisdom Mr Know It All.  Are you really arguing .1 inch and making a point out of that?



#92
Grizzcoat

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:10 AM

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Thanks for dropping such amazing wisdom Mr Know It All.  Are you really arguing .1 inch and making a point out of that?

yeah I really am. Cause it's my job. .1" is .1" -- what are you saying?  I'am saying OMA has seen .1" of snow so far this DEC. WHICH is not  a "T" . It's like saying 9.8" is not 9.9"  which it's not when you look at many records missing by a tenth. I work in the climate field and measure/use the data. That's all.


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#93
Grizzcoat

Posted 17 December 2017 - 03:35 AM

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Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_168.gif   51.95KB   0 downloadsFWIW-



#94
jaster220

Posted 17 December 2017 - 03:53 AM

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yeah I really am. Cause it's my job. .1" is .1" -- what are you saying? I'am saying OMA has seen .1" of snow so far this DEC. WHICH is not a "T" . It's like saying 9.8" is not 9.9" which it's not when you look at many records missing by a tenth. I work in the climate field and measure/use the data. That's all.


Still, 0.1 is the latest of ways to avoid a shut-out, and from a practical "real feel" standpoint, you can't discern the difference. Certainly to Joe Public, they're one and the same

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#95
SE Wisconsin

Posted 17 December 2017 - 03:56 AM

SE Wisconsin

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MKX AFD

 

"The 00z model runs show that the system is trending warmer for
srn WI. Especially the Euro which brings a pronounced warm surge
into the area that could keep precip liquid longer through
Thursday night with only a changeover to a little light snow for
Friday. Meanwhile the GFS drops the colder air further south into
srn WI quicker on Thursday night with more potential for
accumulating snow than the Euro. The tracks of the surface and 850
features are also not favorable ones for siggy snow in our area"

 

The trend is not our friend.

 

Looks as though N WI and N MN may score big on this one.

 

But for the rest of us - just cold rain!



#96
GDR

Posted 17 December 2017 - 04:00 AM

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I haven’t seen a flake yet so I would take .1 anyday
  • Niko likes this

#97
jaster220

Posted 17 December 2017 - 04:40 AM

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I haven’t seen a flake yet so I would take .1 anyday

#sad

Attached File  DRLMs1wWkAALYWp.jpeg   216.1KB   0 downloads

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#98
Snowlover76

Posted 17 December 2017 - 04:53 AM

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Are we at least gonna see rain?

#99
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 06:26 AM

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0z Euro. That’s nice and all, but the models are still trying to figure out the level of phasing. Euro and GFS are quite different in terms of how early that happens.

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#100
Niko

Posted 17 December 2017 - 06:53 AM

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Models need more time to figure this out!