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12/28 - 12/29 Plains/MW/GL's Snow Event

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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Here on the west side of Omaha we managed to get under an enhanced band of snow... snowing moderately with some larger flakes even on the southwest side of town, it looks like we are going to get a little more than just a dusting tonight here.

 

And in the last couple of minutes the snow has picked up even more with the visibility dropping, I wasn’t expecting much of anything tonight snow-wise so this is a nice surprise.

it wasn't much of a band, maybe a couple of miles wide, but the flakes definitely were much bigger. looks like a decent area of returns still behind it too

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Tom
Tom

Fair enough. Based on my ideas/thoughts with this NYE holiday system, I’m going to believe trends hold. It’s been on my mind for quite a while so I think I have a good idea of its potential.

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

This.  This last band is dropping the kind of snow I love to watch.... medium dendrites coming down pretty good, no wind.  I wish all snow could be like this.

hlcater
hlcater

Feels amazing to have this back in the forecast. I can't remember the last one.  

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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it wasn't much of a band, maybe a couple of miles wide, but the flakes definitely were much bigger. looks like a decent area of returns still behind it too

I don't know man, that was definitely much heavier of a snow then what we saw last weekend. That was pretty intense.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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You aren't hyping anything? Yet you post a GFS clown run when you know full well(or at least I hope you do) that the GFS has been way too cold in this pattern? It's been correcting warmer since the onset of this pattern before Christmas. Remember the 1060+ mb high that came out of Canada on the GFS run after run? Where is it? Oh right, that was overdone. It's showing another 1060mb high again in the day 5 range. While this could happen, given that the contiguous US record for high pressure is 1064mb, I would strongly weigh against a high of that magnitude occurring.

 

Not only that, but the GFS is also showing 850s around -20c and surface temps around -30c. Next, lets take a look at a Skew-T pulled from the date that you refer to on your Facebook page. See that massive inversion to a "torchy" -18c? I would think that it would be very difficult to realize the amount of radiational cooling needed to cool the temperature that much and leave an inversion that large. I'm sure that the high pressure which is bound to be in place would certainly help in that regard, but the euro(with a similar strength high, which I still don't buy(I should really be a poet)) only gets temps down to ~-10 degrees. While the Euro doesn't have public soundings, I am sure it looks a whole lot more realistic than the inversion that the GFS is spitting out. Since the Euro under a markedly similar setup is over 20 degrees warmer than the GFS, whose output just looks unrealistic(and has been under similar setups this month), your Facebook post lacks the grounding to make the sort of claims that it did. Feel free to quote this post when the GFS verifies though.

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2017122718_114_41.75--96.5.png

Keep on talking mr internet tough guy lol.

 

Anyways wow..what a great band of snow we got! 

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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Damnit, wow things are sure going to crap fast for Nebraska. A week and a half with solid ensemble support only to start breaking tonight. Hopefully stuff starts to change fast. can't let these Iowa posters get there snow lol

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

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GFS is still bullish with amounts in SD. The first wave maybe not as temps will be near 10, but I think the second wave (the one that will hit Eastern IA) is being way overdone as temps will be in the negative teens.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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indianajohn Enthusiast

indianajohn

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Hey Tom does LES still look promising?

 

 

True, but I'm not going complain since we were lucky enough to get a white Christmas even though it has been a warmer than normal month overall around here. Hope I can score a couple inches through Friday. Might get lucky and get some LES over the weekend as well.

.
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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

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Keep on talking mr internet tough guy lol.

 

Anyways wow..what a great band of snow we got! 

So I'm an internet tough guy for explaining why your Facebook post was without any proper grounding and trying to explain why I think the GFS is overdoing both temps and precip? Right on dude, you can go all in on the GFS, but prepare for some disappointment since the Euro has been doing better lately, even though it's not as extreme. But whatever, it's your Facebook weather hype page, not mine. Do with it as you wish.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
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Also nails Chicago with lake effect on New Years Eve.

 

 

That's a set up worth watching for and many people(who I think are pretty smart) seem on board with it. I don't know a whole lot about lake effect, but since it has their attention, I'd be on the lookout for it!

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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00z Euro - 10:1 snow map through the weekend.  A 20:1 ratio would put the 5" line through Cedar Rapids :)

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122800/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_90.png

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122800/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_90.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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Well I guess the second wave is still on quite a few of the models that come through Nebraska Saturday, its just weaker, probably could eek out a 1-3 inches. Wouldn't take much of a strengthening to get a couple more out of it and perhaps get something like last weekend. I'll take any snow i can get lol

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Hoosier Mentor

Hoosier

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Hey Tom does LES still look promising?

 

 

.

That band is gonna rip wherever it sets up. Complicating factor is potential mesolow development and how that would alter the placement/duration. Given the setup I would expect peak rates on the order of 2-4" per hour somewhere.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Hey Tom does LES still look promising?

 

 

.

I would say you have a better shot at seeing LES on NYE than NE IL, however, these events are always tough to forecast this far out anyway.  It's not as much of a robust signal over here as the models were indicating a couple days ago but that could change.  I like your chances though.  The flow will be more northerly and somewhat of an easterly component early, then come down the full fetch of the lake when its ideal for your area.

 

 

Meantime, 06z NAM 3km came north and robust with qpf...  Euro showing 2", GFS 2", NAM 3" through Friday for ORD...SREF mean 2"

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The wave on Friday has some "oomph"...over performer???  Hope IA peeps cash in, esp those in E IA who have missed out in previous events....

 

DVN SREF mean is up to 3"...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ndfd/2017122812/mw/ndfd_acc_snow_mw_42.png

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

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Well I guess the second wave is still on quite a few of the models that come through Nebraska Saturday, its just weaker, probably could eek out a 1-3 inches. Wouldn't take much of a strengthening to get a couple more out of it and perhaps get something like last weekend. I'll take any snow i can get lol

Who are you and what have you done with Craig?
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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