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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#51
Timmy

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:03 AM

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It wasn't misleading... the atmosphere isn't a 1:1 with the surface

yeah tim you big dummy



#52
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:09 AM

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It wasn't misleading... the atmosphere isn't a 1:1 with the surface

 

It obviously was a little misleading to the non-educated.    Two of us thought that looked like a major backdoor arctic blast but then we looked at the 850mb temps and the surface temps it was not even close.   ;)



#53
BLI snowman

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:17 AM

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It obviously was a little misleading to the non-educated.    Two of us thought that looked like a major backdoor arctic blast but then we looked at the 850mb temps and the surface temps it was not even close.   ;)

 

It's important to note that 10mb is pretty high up.


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#54
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:19 AM

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It's important to note that 10mb is pretty high up.


Yes... we have learned that today.

#55
Geos

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:22 AM

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It's amazing how brave the crows are because I see them chasing the eagles all the time. 

 

Seen that too. Seen the crows chase off hawks as well.

I work right next to the giant Crow roost at UW Bothell. The group fluctuates in size, but on average there's 10,000 birds that sleep there at night. 


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 33.99", 11/12
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 29°, 11/11

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#56
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:22 AM

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Raining this morning. Up to 16 consecutive days with rain here now. This is turning out to be quite the streak.

 

Starting to look like it may be followed by a second notable dry period this winter, after the one the first half of December.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#57
Geos

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:25 AM

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Rain shadow effect going on across the north Sound right here. 

Nothing more than a light rain here. Almost a heavy drizzle.

 

ATX.N0Q.20180201.1920.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 33.99", 11/12
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 29°, 11/11

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#58
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:31 AM

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Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring. They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle.

According to Wikipedia...

Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.


Yeah, birds have a sixth sense and can predict weather along with the changing of seasons. This all but verifies that winter is over for us in the PNW. Spring has come early this year.
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#59
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:32 AM

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Yeah, birds have a sixth sense and can predict weather along with the changing of seasons. This all but verifies that winter is over for us in the PNW. Spring has come early this year.

 

Phil and I have both agreed that our ginormous January busts were mainly due to not listening to the birds.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#60
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:37 AM

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It's crazy how north/south the rain has been.  We are going to be way drier than Seattle.  It would be interesting to compare it to the other extreme n/s years.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#61
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:50 AM

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Seen that too. Seen the crows chase off hawks as well.

I work right next to the giant Crow roost at UW Bothell. The group fluctuates in size, but on average there's 10,000 birds that sleep there at night. 

Wow crazy. About 15 years ago my buddy found a baby crow that fell from nest out in the woods and called me to see if I wanted it. I did and raised it and had it for about 3 years when it died from something. Little did I know that they need to be hand fed to about 6 months old lol. To this day by far the coolest pet I have had. I had a cage outside that was about 6 feet tall and wide and during the day I would let him fly around and do what he wanted but he never would fly more than a 100ft away from home. The best part was when we had people over for dinner in the summer and he would fly over and land on my arm or shoulder the look on the face was priceless. They are very smart and sneaky and are some of the smartest birds in the world. They are always into something and mine would even walk up behind our dog and peck his back and try and hide. I know a lot of people don't like them but they really are a fascinating bird.


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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#62
Geos

Posted 01 February 2018 - 12:51 PM

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Wow crazy. About 15 years ago my buddy found a baby crow that fell from nest out in the woods and called me to see if I wanted it. I did and raised it and had it for about 3 years when it died from something. Little did I know that they need to be hand fed to about 6 months old lol. To this day by far the coolest pet I have had. I had a cage outside that was about 6 feet tall and wide and during the day I would let him fly around and do what he wanted but he never would fly more than a 100ft away from home. The best part was when we had people over for dinner in the summer and he would fly over and land on my arm or shoulder the look on the face was priceless. They are very smart and sneaky and are some of the smartest birds in the world. They are always into something and mine would even walk up behind our dog and peck his back and try and hide. I know a lot of people don't like them but they really are a fascinating bird.

 

 

That's a cool story. They are very smart birds and very social. Your crow probably didn't want to loose sight of home because he saw you as family. 

Bothell crows on Youtube: https://www.youtube....y=bothell crows


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 33.99", 11/12
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 29°, 11/11

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#63
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:03 PM

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#imprinting

#64
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:03 PM

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That's a cool story. They are very smart birds and very social. Your crow probably didn't want to loose sight of home because he saw you as family. 

Bothell crows on Youtube: https://www.youtube....y=bothell crows

 

Yeah the wild crows would freak out when I walked outside with him on my arm. We have 2 species of crow around here, north American crow and the Puget sound crow. The Puget sound crow has a flatter head above the beak and the north American crow has a swept back head above beak. Most you see are the north American but if you look you will see the difference.


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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#65
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:10 PM

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I posted a gif for the link that Phil provided. It shows temps at the top of the atmosphere. He was showing what the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)would look like. I believe his point was the cold air at that level triggers convection over the warm Pacific waters.


Yes, it will affect things (globally) in the months ahead, assuming it actually happens.
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#66
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:12 PM

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I thought the idea was that it would induce high pressure over the Arctic, dislodge the PV, and an Arctic blast "somewhere" in the lower latitudes. Never any guarantee who will actually benefit from that.


That too, but usually you see the blocking response lag the wave-2/SSW by several weeks..and the more important global repercussions occur over the following months.

Again..long game. :)
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#67
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:14 PM

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Phil and I have both agreed that our ginormous January busts were mainly due to not listening to the birds.


Those d**n birds. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#68
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:21 PM

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Phil has always reminded me of a crow.


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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#69
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:33 PM

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Phil has always reminded me of a crow.


And you remind me of a dodobird. :P

Andrew reminds me of a Duck, and Hawkstwelve reminds me of a Hawk.
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#70
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:40 PM

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And you remind me of a dodobird. :P

Andrew reminds me of a Duck, and Hawkstwelve reminds me of a Hawk.


🦆
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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#71
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:44 PM

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https://m.youtube.co...h?v=UAJEbuTBodI

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#72
Jginmartini

Posted 01 February 2018 - 02:58 PM

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January stats

High.....55.3...
average temp.....43
Low......28.5
Precipitation....7.60
Pressure.......High (30.44) low (29.59)

Currently a lovely Gray outside with wet falling from it

Jim
Blast of Arctic air please

#73
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:11 PM

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Just an FYI. January did end up being the 2nd warmest on record at PDX. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#74
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:14 PM

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Just an FYI. January did end up being the 2nd warmest on record at PDX.


Top tier!

#75
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:25 PM

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Next weekend looks gorgeous.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#76
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:29 PM

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Next weekend looks gorgeous.

 

I have been watching that as well.    Hope it holds up.  



#77
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:31 PM

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Bring on more rain!
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#78
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:41 PM

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Uh oh! I sense a difference of opinion!

#februaryfireworks!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#79
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:43 PM

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Uh oh! I sense a difference of opinion!

#februaryfireworks!


He is just trolling. No difference in opinion.

#80
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:44 PM

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He is just trolling. No difference in opinion.


d**n. I was hoping it would make the place a little more lively.

#februaryflatline

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#81
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:46 PM

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d**n. I was hoping it would make the place a little more lively.

#februaryflatline

 

Go ahead... take over.  



#82
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:59 PM

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Go ahead... take over.


Cold winters cause cancer!

Phil and the PNA have two children out of wedlock!

Flatiron's anal logs are bruised and bloodied!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#83
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 04:22 PM

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Image from Sam Lillo on Twitter. The “MQI” plots he created describe the QBO more efficiently, in that they’re based on cycle stages of shear stress progression (the life cycle of the QBO, essentially) rather than simply assigning a positive/negative QBO number, which is essentially useless..

Note how many of the best large scale analogs to this winter (2000/01, 1976/77, 1967/68, 2014/15, 1981/82, 1962/63, etc) shared a similar QBO/MQI phase.

On this date, this is how other years compare, in regards to “MQI”:

hhiV9uQ.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#84
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 04:24 PM

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Also, note that this winter is the most amplified QBO wave on record for this stage in the cycle. Also, you can see the weird/skipped cycle in 2017, which followed the record breaking westerly QBO cycle in 2015/2016.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#85
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 04:32 PM

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If we do verify the wave-2 SSW, it will be fun watching the models flounder like a fish out of water.

Nothing on planet Earth can tank NWP skill scores like a SSW event, save maybe a super volcano eruption.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#86
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 04:40 PM

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If we do verify the wave-2 SSW, it will be fun watching the models flounder like a fish out of water.

Nothing on planet Earth can tank NWP skill scores like a SSW event, save maybe a super volcano eruption.

 

 

So was Mt. Agung a dud?  



#87
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:12 PM

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Drizzle this morning and 41, now moderate rain and 41 this evening! Yay!

#88
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:29 PM

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So was Mt. Agung a dud?


Well, that’s kind of subjective. It’s still erupting episodically, but it looks like a VEI3 so far. Theoretically it could erupt for years and increase in intensity, or go dormant again.

I’m not a vulcanologist, so I don’t have those answers.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#89
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:29 PM

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Just an FYI. January did end up being the 2nd warmest on record at PDX. 

 

Number 7 at station of the gods.

 

#avoidedtop5


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#90
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:38 PM

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So was Mt. Agung a dud?  

 

Obviously...second warmest January at PDX.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#91
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:19 PM

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Phil! NWS Seattle technicians are knocking on your door, they want to come in and chat.

Attached Files


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#92
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:31 PM

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Phil! NWS Seattle technicians are knocking on your door, they want to come in and chat.


😂 lots of snow at Phil’s
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#93
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:36 PM

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He is just trolling. No difference in opinion.


I'm not trolling. Like I said, bring on more rain. We could use it

#94
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:39 PM

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I'm not trolling. Like I said, bring on more rain. We could use it


Definitely. Tinder dry out there.

 

Excellent observation. 



#95
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:41 PM

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😂 lots of snow at Phil’s

They want a debrief on his busted January forecast.

#96
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:16 PM

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😂 lots of snow at Phil’s


Lol. U jelly?
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#97
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:23 PM

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Lol. U jelly?


Jam actually. I enjoy 90s hip-hop

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#98
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:46 PM

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I'm not trolling. Like I said, bring on more rain. We could use it

 

Most of the western half of the country is in desperate need for rain right now, as it has been very dry outside of Washington, Idaho, and Montana. I am hoping for a major pattern change that will bring beneficial rain and mountain snow to a large area of the west.


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#99
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:55 PM

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Anyone still looking at models?


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#100
Guest_El nina_*

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:58 PM

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d**n. I was hoping it would make the place a little more lively.
#februaryflatline

You wanna liven things up huh?Attached File  20180123_152940.png   784.39KB   3 downloads