August 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

The heavy rain has moved out of Madison, finally.  There are several personal stations showing 9-13" in western Madison and just west of town.

[Tom]

Denver, CO tied a record low of 46F yesterday morning.  Were there any record low temps broken out in W NE?  While it's going to get a bit chilly for parts of the MW later night, I think records may stay in tact.  This is going to feel real nice, esp with the low DP's.

 

 

 

 

@ BrianJk, did you get some good rains bud?  Hearing down in the SW burbs some places got about 2" of rain.

[jaster220]

@WestMJim

 

Did yby finally get a decent rain this morning? Marshall looks to have scored <.25 so just enough to keep things nice and green as it has been for about a month now. certainly this wasn the huge rain maker grr thought would be swmi i one am fine with that. had more than my fair share of flooding since feb melt-down.>

[Niko]

Rainy conditions here, although, not drastic or anything outta the ordinary. Much cooler, drier air follows tonight and into the next couple of days. Someone here in SEMI will see lows in the 40s this week.

[westMJim]

@WestMJim

 

Did yby finally get a decent rain this morning? Marshall looks to have scored <.25 so just enough to keep things nice and green as it has been for about a month now. certainly this wasn the huge rain maker grr thought would be swmi i one am fine with that. had more than my fair share of flooding since feb melt-down.>

No, here on the NW side of GR I only got 0.17" of rain and one and there was one report of only 0.12" over at Comstock Park. It looks like GRR got 0.26" so in the Grand Rapids area we did not get much rain at all and here things are not green for the most part.

[Stacsh]

No, here on the NW side of GR I only got 0.17" of rain and one and there was one report of only 0.12" over at Comstock Park. It looks like GRR got 0.26" so in the Grand Rapids area we did not get much rain at all and here things are not green for the most part.

 

.14" I recorded at my house in Grand Haven.  Most rain I've received from one event since early July, forgot the date.  Not sure what Muskegon (nearest official recording station) received.  

[Stacsh]

.14" I recorded at my house in Grand Haven.  Most rain I've received from one event since early July, forgot the date.  Not sure what Muskegon (nearest official recording station) received.  

 

I work in GR where it is currently overcast, but looks like a heavier band of rain has moved over my house!!! Will be curious to see what I have when I get home.  Thinking I can squeeze at least .5" out of this for a total. 

[Iowawx]

One more cell moved over me late this evening, dumping another half inch and putting my final total at 2.35".

Some really heavy cells must have moved over your side of CR. I only got 0.97 inches of rain yesterday.

[jaster220]

No, here on the NW side of GR I only got 0.17" of rain and one and there was one report of only 0.12" over at Comstock Park. It looks like GRR got 0.26" so in the Grand Rapids area we did not get much rain at all and here things are not green for the most part.

 

mega-bustolla for GRR then from what they were high-lighting a day or two ago

[jaster220]

As mentioned I was boating on Lake Mich Sunday evening. Here's a few photos I snapped. 

 

Heading there on the state highway, you pass thru a section of the Allegan State Game Area and for about 10 miles it's pretty much undeveloped countryside. It's very much like the north woods of The Mitt, and indeed the furthest south you can get that "up north feel". I first passed thru here in '84 and have always liked it since.

 

 

Here you can see the clouds from the storm hitting out in Nebraska obscuring the late evening sun as we head out onto the big lake:

 

 

This is Niko's summer residence (aka my dream summer residence). Prolly spend my monthly income just on their property tax bill, lol

 

 

This was a paddle wheeling sunset cruise (I'm on the bow so you couldn't see the wheels unfortunately), and they go quite a ways on Lk. Mich as long as the seas are calm. 

 

 

This a shot of "Port" just prior to departure:

 

 

I'll have to go again when I can see the sun setting. Won't take any arm twisting for that to happen. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Some really heavy cells must have moved over your side of CR. I only got 0.97 inches of rain yesterday.

 

Yeah, the cells were tiny and, for once, hit my side of the city hardest.  I actually doubled your total for once.

 

This was my heaviest one-day rain event of the year.

[BrianJK]

 

 

@ BrianJk, did you get some good rains bud? Hearing down in the SW burbs some places got about 2" of rain.

 

Oh yeah, got a good soaking here. At least an inch, not sure how much over.

[jaster220]

Getting some nice backside LehR showers here in Marshall attm. Looks to be the case all across SWMI with some being quite heavy. This would be a classic set-up in winter for some +LES squalls 

[OKwx2k4]

With this rare combo of very warm GL's water temps, and a strong low coming up thru the Mitten, I wonder if there will actually be even bigger waves than depicted. Perhaps their program accounts for this, perhaps not. It's generally easier to push the more buoyant warm water than the typically dense cold season water. I remember back in my youth (70's) swimming in some decent sized waves on Lk. Michigan and it was usually at Labor Day weekend. It can be a lot of fun body surfing, but at the same time kinda scary too. They didn't issue all the beach hazards back then either. The power of even a 4 ft wave is incredible.

 

20180820 GRR graphic.PNG

Wait til October and December, my friend. I think you'll be thoroughly impressed this year by some stuff.

 

There are far too many anomalous things happening for there not to be something huge down the line. Just my nonscientific intuition and two cents, for what its worth.

[Niko]

As mentioned I was boating on Lake Mich Sunday evening. Here's a few photos I snapped. 

 

Heading there on the state highway, you pass thru a section of the Allegan State Game Area and for about 10 miles it's pretty much undeveloped countryside. It's very much like the north woods of The Mitt, and indeed the furthest south you can get that "up north feel". I first passed thru here in '84 and have always liked it since.

 

DSC00145.JPG

 

Here you can see the clouds from the storm hitting out in Nebraska obscuring the late evening sun as we head out onto the big lake:

 

DSC00164.JPG

 

This is Niko's summer residence (aka my dream summer residence). Prolly spend my monthly income just on their property tax bill, lol

 

DSC00159.JPG

 

This was a paddle wheeling sunset cruise (I'm on the bow so you couldn't see the wheels unfortunately), and they go quite a ways on Lk. Mich as long as the seas are calm. 

 

DSC00166.JPG

 

This a shot of "Port" just prior to departure:

 

DSC00150.JPG

 

I'll have to go again when I can see the sun setting. Won't take any arm twisting for that to happen. 

Nice!

[Niko]

Crazy weather day today. Sunshine, heavy downpours, flooding and even some small hail (dime size) fell.

[Tom]

In other news, Boy, Hurricane Lane just upgraded to a powerful Cat 4 with 155mph sustained winds. You don’t see this strong of a system all to often near the islands of Hawaii.

[Tom]

Waterspout season in full effect today...some big ones spotted, esp this particular one near Benton Harbor, MI

 

[Tom]

It's a refreshing morning here today 58F/52F.  What a treat it is to have these lower DP's.  Seems like its been weeks since we have had DP's in the 50's.  Spotty locations around the region are showing readings in the upper 40's. #tasteofautumn

[Tom]

Hurricane Lane, she's a beast...Cat 5 powerhouse...photogenic eye wall and structure

 

[Tom]

Today's low of 58F at ORD, is the chilliest low since June 9th (57F).

[St Paul Storm]

It's a refreshing morning here today 58F/52F.  What a treat it is to have these lower DP's.  Seems like its been weeks since we have had DP's in the 50's.  Spotty locations around the region are showing readings in the upper 40's. #tasteofautumn

Best night of sleep I’ve had in a long time last night. Felt good to throw the windows open with a nice cool breeze and the smell of the neighbors fire. Can’t wait for Fall.

 

Looks like we’re actually going to get some nice rains here tomorrow into Friday, and at times over the weekend. While the rest of you were counting the inches earlier this week, I only received 0.08”. We need a nice soaker.

[St Paul Storm]

Hurricane Lane, she's a beast...Cat 5 powerhouse...photogenic eye wall and structure

 

Only 4 named storms have made landfall in Hi since 1959. Only two Cat 5s have ever gotten with 350 miles of the state. Wow.

[Tom]

Best night of sleep I’ve had in a long time last night. Felt good to throw the windows open with a nice cool breeze and the smell of the neighbors fire. Can’t wait for Fall.

 

Looks like we’re actually going to get some nice rains here tomorrow into Friday, and at times over the weekend. While the rest of you were counting the inches earlier this week, I only received 0.08”. We need a nice soaker.

This, my friend, is exactly what I did last night and what I'm looking forward to over the next few weeks.  Ya, the wet signal up your way is legit.  Your def going to make up for the lack of precip over the next couple weeks.  I just came back from a morning walk (a bit brisk actually) and I was thinking about the pattern and how closely it resembles the enormous rainfall the U.P. of MI and parts of the Northwoods experienced back in mid June.  A similar pattern is about to unfold and your area is under the gun.

 

00z GEFS...through end of month...Labor Day Weekend up north looks wet

 

[Minny_Weather]

You couldn't ask for a more beautiful morning in August. Seriously, it's just not possible. I've had my A/C off and windows open since Sunday and that probably won't change till Friday. 58.4*F.

[Niko]

Definitely feeling like Autumn outside w cloudy skies, breezy conditions and temps in the low 60s (63F) to be exact. Summer is not done yet folks as 90s are eyeing SEMI down the road.

[jaster220]

Definitely feeling like Autumn outside w cloudy skies, breezy conditions and temps in the low 60s (63F) to be exact. Summer is not done yet folks as 90s are eyeing SEMI down the road.

 

Haha, summer done? On August 22nd? I always felt that calendar seasons (astrological) were much closer to nature's cycle than our MET seasons. At least for this region. Got a solid month of summer based on that. 

[Niko]

Haha, summer done? On August 22nd? I always felt that calendar seasons (astrological) were much closer to nature's cycle than our MET seasons. At least for this region. Got a solid month of summer based on that. 

Absolutely....best days are in Sept and Oct w warm days and cool nights.

[Niko]

Its a gorgeous afternoon w plentiful sunshine, deep blue skies, no humidity and a fresh NW breeze. Lows tonight w dip\ into the low 50s. Some 40s are possible, even in my area as lows are predicted to be around 51F.

[Tom]

Another great sleeping night with the windows cracked open.  Temps this morning are actually a little cooler than yesterday IMBY (56F)...as I write this, you can feel the cooler air seeping into the house through the windows.  This is that autumn feel I can get used to.  Last night, the neighbors had their fire pit going and the smells of burning wood spread throughout the house.  I love that smell!

 

Well, it looks like a bit of rain is on the way later tomorrow around here, as well as, the drought regions of MO/KS...good luck to those who get a healthy drink.

 

 

 

 

 

Geeze, the wet signal continuously showing up for WI and neighboring states is legit over the next 2 weeks.  Things are about to get real active as the BSR rule comes into fruition.  While it will get warmer next week into the holiday weekend, there is some data suggesting temps trend back the other way once we get past Labor Day weekend.  Fun times tracking storms/severe wx to close out August and open Sept.

[Tom]

Took a gander at the JMA weeklies and warm couple weeks ahead, but the model has flipped back towards a more seasonal look for Week 3-4.  This would fit the BSR rule as I'm expecting to see some big systems during the week of Sept 9th.  Tropical forcing in the W PAC likely the culprit and the effects of the NE PAC SST's.   The model is seeing the trough build off the west coast as we get closer towards the development of the new LRC.

 

Warm Week 1-2...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201808.D2212_gl2.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201808.D2212_gl2.png

 

 

Week 3-4....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201808.D2212_gl2.png

[jaster220]

Its a gorgeous afternoon w plentiful sunshine, deep blue skies, no humidity and a fresh NW breeze. Lows tonight w dip\ into the low 50s. Some 40s are possible, even in my area as lows are predicted to be around 51F.

 

Yep, 1st time I mowed my lawn and wasn't all sweated up since my first cutting back in early May. Nice! 

[Niko]

Gorgeous morning out there. Temps in the 50s w deep blue skies. Ahhhhh, some fresh air from Canada.

[jaster220]

KRMY hit 51F for the low about 4:30 and it was crisp when I got out to my ride. 

[Niko]

KRMY hit 51F for the low about 4:30 and it was crisp when I got out to my ride. 

Indeed....absolutely beautiful morning out there. Feels like Autumn.

[St Paul Storm]

Baby stepping down the rain totals for tonight and tomorrow that I was promised all week. The first 12z models coming in show little rain at all. Not good.

[CentralNebWeather]

Dew point has soared back to 70. After a slight reprieve, heat and humidity return for at least the next 4 days with some days above 90. Yuck. Have long ago had enough of this weather.

[OKwx2k4]

Took a gander at the JMA weeklies and warm couple weeks ahead, but the model has flipped back towards a more seasonal look for Week 3-4. This would fit the BSR rule as I'm expecting to see some big systems during the week of Sept 9th. Tropical forcing in the W PAC likely the culprit and the effects of the NE PAC SST's. The model is seeing the trough build off the west coast as we get closer towards the development of the new LRC.

 

Warm Week 1-2...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201808.D2212_gl2.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201808.D2212_gl2.png

 

 

Week 3-4....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201808.D2212_gl2.png

That week 3-4 is gonna be really really nice.

[Niko]

Heat returning w possible 90s. In the meantime, anotha beautiful, sunny day shaping up to be w temps slightly warmer today. Perhaps mid 80s.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up about 0.40" this morning, pushing my August total over 6 inches.

 

It'd be nice to see some action later, but the thick clouds and cool temp are not going to help.