December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Cloudy w a temp of 35F. Rain likely later today and tanite into tomorrow. Clearing weather expected afterwards w seasonably cold temps and dry weather to persist right into next week, in fact, dry most of next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

Fv3 went south again lol. Anywho OAX did the same thing last storm saying don't look at other sites and social media. If I recall they were wrong on the storm. It gets annoying that they are telling others only they have the correct information like some God and looking to others is a sin. Why are they afraid of people being aware? So far the winter storms this year have not followed their forecast at all. I still don't know if this going to be to warm. I would rather be cautious now instead of stuck on road while all hell is breaking lose.

I saw the same thing with NWS Omaha last storm.  No one site can ever say they are 100% correct and it just seems strange that they rip on social media when they use it themselves.  Good discussions this morning on here, that is why I like following and posting. Even though we may disagree at times, we all love weather.

[Stormhunter87]

I saw the same thing with NWS Omaha last storm.  No one site can ever say they are 100% correct and it just seems strange that they rip on social media when they use it themselves.  Good discussions this morning on here, that is why I like following and posting. Even though we may disagree at times, we all love weather.

Definitely agree. I will say I find it odd that they are not playing on the side of caution. I wonder if they just don't like people calling them lairs every time the weather changes. Then again people are quick to blame and don't understand how hard forcasting actually is.

[CentralNebWeather]

Definitely agree. I will say I find it odd that they are not playing on the side of caution. I wonder if they just don't like people calling them lairs every time the weather changes. Then again people are quick to blame and don't understand how hard forcasting actually is.

That might be.  Never thought of that.  

[Stormhunter87]

That might be.  Never thought of that.

 

Every time I have to explain to people that the best forecast is still only accurate up to 6 hours and even then things can change. Case in point last storm the NAM actually did the best at calling the good heavy bands of snow. What it came down to was thermals as lnk pointed out. I tend to agree that models give the idea but your window of time can come down to hours because of the upper level air. Who knows this may be a northern storm. Awesome hopefully the people north of here get a good blast of snow. We need it for cold air plus we can't be the only ones enjoying the white stuff. Plus it won't wreck our Christmas travels.

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFS nails the metro again, while the GEM says congrats Fargo on 20”.

[CentralNebWeather]

Today's runs so far have the low going straight over Central Nebraska as they were doing days ago then they started moving farther east before turning northeast.  Many more days of changes ahead imo.  Lots of moisture.

[james1976]

Man there have been some hard cutters this year.

[Tom]

Man there have been some hard cutters this year.

Early season cutters were outlined and expected, things change as we flip the calendar into Jan.  Pattern becomes loaded once we get past the Winter Solstice and Christmas Day period.  Great pattern even tho some don't think so, I'm standing firm and holding onto my original ideas a couple weeks ago when I came out and said to look for a Christmas storm (Blizzard?) even though it's a day late, it's ending up to be a great lead time...and to finish off the month...a NYE/New Year's day storm which will prob be another cutter.

[CentralNebWeather]

Man there have been some hard cutters this year.

You're right.  At least in this area from our November and early December storms, they tracked a little farther southeast than had been forecasted even right up to the day of the event.  I think that would be great for many on the forum.  

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well as of right now all rain here. Things can change but not overly optimistic.

[Tom]

There is now talk that the impending SSW event to be a possible record setting one.  Last year, we set records in the Strat in mid/late Feb and we know what happened in Mar/Apr.  Can you imagine what's on the table if this comes close to what the models are predicting for Jan/Feb?  

[Grizzcoat]

FV3 with a different S look....

[hlcater]

I JUST SAW SOMETHING REALLY FREAKY! While it was drizzling lightly, I saw this little white speck that fell erratically and much slower than the rain did. I’ve been doing extensive research to try and figure out what it was but I can’t for the life of me. Does anyone have any idea what it mighta been?

[Stormhunter87]

I JUST SAW SOMETHING REALLY FREAKY! While it was drizzling lightly, I saw this little white speck that fell erratically and much slower than the rain did. I’ve been doing extensive research to try and figure out what it was but I can’t for the life of me. Does anyone have any idea what it mighta been?

My guess would be snow that froze into grople and then melted keeping a slight solid state.

[CentralNebWeather]

FV3 GFS much farther south.  Couldn't be much more different than its brother, GFS.

[Tom]

Take a look at the 12z GEFS...Big shift S and E...colder also...

[jcwxguy]

FV3 GFS much farther south. Couldn't be much more different than its brother, GFS.

it has a se bias. Last storm was the same

[hlcater]

My guess would be snow that froze into grople and then melted keeping a slight solid state.

I was being mostly facetious lol. There’s a snowflake or two mixing in with the drizzle here. These are the first flakes I think I’ve seen all month.

[hlcater]

it has a se bias. Last storm was the same

it has a se bias. Last storm was the same

 

But with the November blizzard, it was consistently on the NW end of the envelope. I think it has a bias towards sucking but that’s just me.

[Grizzcoat]

Ukmet at HR 144 nearly indentical to FV3 in placement and strength of Low

[Stormhunter87]

I was being mostly facetious lol. There’s a snowflake or two mixing in with the drizzle here. These are the first flakes I think I’ve seen all month.

And now I feel stupid lol. Enjoy the flakes

[Tony]

Take a look at the 12z GEFS...Big shift S and E...colder also...

Tom must have the snow magnet activated again as he did in November. Glad to see you finally had it fixed!

[hlcater]

And now I feel stupid lol. Enjoy the flakes

Back to rain

[jcwxguy]

Take a look at the 12z GEFS...Big shift S and E...colder also...

[Stormhunter87]

Gage match between the models! GFS, CMC, and icon going warm and rainy to the south vs. GEFS and Fv3. This going to be a fun ride. Can't add the euro because I can't use it and I'm holding out for the NAM.

[St Paul Storm]

Gage match between the models! GFS, CMC, and icon going warm and rainy to the south vs. GEFS and Fv3. This going to be a fun ride. Can't add the euro because I can use it and I'm holding out for the NAM.

And all of the models are just ‘best guesses’ at this point as the energy is still over China as of this morning. Tons of changes on all of the models is still an excellent bet.

[Stormhunter87]

I will note that wpc has moved their forecast slightly south. Not much but they did move it.

[St Paul Storm]

Great run on the Euro. Definitely not the wide swath of snow as depicted on previous runs, but the track is still similar.

[CentralNebWeather]

You talk about a cutoff.  12Z Euro lays down a good swath of snow from Northwest Kansas, through Central to Northeast Nebraska.  Places northwest of that line are buried.  Just southeast of that line would be a December rain storm.  Will be interesting to watch that line wobble back and forth in the coming days models.

[Tom]

Tom must have the snow magnet activated again as he did in November. Glad to see you finally had it fixed!

It's going to take a lot and I'm not counting on it...but hey, anything is possible at this range  

[Grizzcoat]

[St Paul Storm]

^ that’s pretty. Thanks for posting Grizz.

[Tom]

ecmwfued-null--usnc-216-C-kucheratot.png

That would put a nice dent into the snow hole across the Upper MW...

[Tom]

12z EPS 6" snow mean did shift S and E from it's previous 00z run...C & NW NE extending ENE into MN...

[Tom]

Big time changes in the N PAC on today's 12z EPS and lining up to a "T" with the LRC...I'm really amazed at how powerful this long range tool can be. This is going to be an impressive colder run and what possibly will be a Polar Vortex Split heading into the opening days of Jan.  This fits exactly what I mentioned yesterday to look for the "Hudson Bay Ridge" to be replaced by the "Hudson Bay Vortex" at the tail end of this month.

 

Edit: Much snowier as well...

[CentralNebWeather]

Very informative afternoon disco from NWS North Platte NE:

 

The GFS continues to be fixed on a solution where it brings
significant winter impacts to the forecast area early Wednesday
through Thursday of next week. The EC and lesser extent Canadian
have been at odds with the operational GFS, but today are trending
toward the GFS. There are timing issues between the models, but the
overall idea is where a "Four Corners" H5 low ejects northeast
across western Kansas and into south central Nebraska and slows as
it matures and takes on a negative tilt. This is a very favorable
track for heavy snow across the forecast area as the Gulf will be
wide open with plentiful moisture into the region and it allows the
TROWAL/deformation to remain fixed over the forecast area for a
prolonged period. In addition, the models show a strong convective
element to the storm, which would suggest periods of enhanced
precipitation rates. Thermal profiles are uncertain, but the wide
open Gulf will allow for strong warm advection in advance of the
low. Wintery mix is expected with the system, but uncertain as to
how impactful it will eventually be. Also, there is enough
instability that thunderstorms can not be ruled out early Wednesday
across our south and southeast. Lastly, strong winds will be
expected with this system.

The track of the low is the key as to where the eventual heavy
impactful snow winds up and up until today`s model runs, there was
little consistency. Case in point, last nights model runs showed
nearly 400 mile discrepancy between the track of the H5 low. For
now, we need to focus on the storm`s potential and begin messaging
those potential impacts, but pump the breaks on entertaining and
fine-tuning snow amounts and exact locations. Luckily, this system
is still 6-7 days out.

[james1976]

Had a snowshower a while ago. Just enough to make the ground wet (not white).

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS afternoon disco now talking about the storm next week and not just saying rain only as they did this morning.

 

 

However, there are big difference

regarding precipitation type, which will depend on the storm

track. For instance, do we end up with a more northwesterly track

and end up in the warm sector with primarily rain, or do we see a

more southeasterly storm track that could give us a healthy

helping of snow. Ultimately at 6 days out the confidence in the

storm track is low and it`s way to early to talk about snowfall

amounts, which will heavily depend on the storm track.

 

People with travel plans on December 26th through December 27th

will want to keep up to date with the latest forecast until we can

really peg down the storm track in the coming days.

[Stormhunter87]

GFS definitely sticking to its guns. It crazy to see the amount of moisture with this storm