2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[james1976]

1.6"

[bud2380]

It’s sleeting now. Sadly.

[gabel23]

Nothing but freezing drizzle here today. Another swing and a miss for my area and the beat goes on. Crazy how unlucky areas along the Platte River has been this year; on a side note the loup River is filled bank to Bank with ice. Most I have seen since the major flood of 1993.

[MKEstorm]

I'm going to be intrigued to see what we get, this storm seems to be passing through without the hype or conversation of the last couple of storms - I don't know if it's the difference in being under and Advisory versus a Warning, but I wonder if this is going to catch a few people off guard.

 

Exactly! Not the hype like the other storms, but I think this one has more potential. 

I wanna see how this dry slot that MKE NWS has been advertising pans out in the morning. I guess that was the reason for the Advisory over Warning

[CentralNebWeather]

Nothing but freezing drizzle here today. Another swing and a miss for my area and the beat goes on. Crazy how unlucky areas along the Platte River has been this year; on a side note the loup River is filled bank to Bank with ice. Most I have seen since the major flood of 1993.

Did you have school today? We had the day off which was nice.

[East Dubzz]

New DVN forecast. Cut down some totals, but mainly south of here. Think it’s because of mixed precip and not a weaker system.

[Iowawx]

3.7” here as of 8:00pm.

[jcwxguy]

[VMB443]

Exactly! Not the hype like the other storms, but I think this one has more potential.

I wanna see how this dry slot that MKE NWS has been advertising pans out in the morning. I guess that was the reason for the Advisory over Warning

I agree - my gut says this has more potential, but maybe my gut is just wishcasting!

[bud2380]

This blows. If it doesn’t change back over to snow soon it’s going to massively cut into snow totals. I have a feeling im about 5 miles away from the snow

[BMT]

New DVN forecast. Cut down some totals, but mainly south of here. Think it’s because of mixed precip and not a weaker system.

Is this additional snowfall?

[Madtown]

little flakes here...been snowing for an hour. 1/2" so far. I think 6" if the right call here.

[hlcater]

Is this additional snowfall?

 

Period starts Monday Afternoon, so I'm gonna go with storm total. At this rate though, we're gonna have to really stretch it to make 5". Go figure. My signature will be much higher because I keep tabs in Hiawatha and not in Iowa City. But IC is getting hardcore screwed right now.

[East Dubzz]

Is this additional snowfall?

No, total snowfall.

 

DVN AFD update:

 

“UPDATE...

Issued at 750 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

 

Messy precipitation type and complex forecast, with warming aloft stronger and lifting further north complicating things even more, with sleet now in Iowa City to Clinton while all freezing rain/rain further south of this line and snow to the north. Several recent CAM solutions want to bring changeover to snow from west to east in the next few hours, but I`m not as confident and thinking more pessimistically for any changeover to snow from around QC on south until mainly toward and after midnight as vort max passes. By then qpf should be trending downward, so seems likely snow amounts will be less than previous forecast from QC on south/east and have begun trimming back in these areas. This was a concern for past couple of days and messaged that expect a sharp gradient on southern side of snow and it`s bearing out this evening. No decision on adjustments to warning in/around QC metro yet, as despite lower snow totals icing making for hazardous travel. Snow amounts through 6 pm across northeast Iowa coming in near or even a bit above forecast with 3 inches in Cedar Rapids area, but overall still appears on track for 6-10 inches. Some concern amounts could be in a little lower in portions of far northwest IL near WI border where all snow is forecast, but warming aloft is lifting north and can`t rule out a mix cutting down amounts in Mt Carroll and Freeport and Galena areas.”

 

I can’t remember exactly, but I believe the NAM handled the warm air best, right? I remember it being a little closer on the mixed precipitation than I would have liked, but kept it all snow here.

[BMT]

Thanks. Looks like some good returns heading toward CR. Hopefully it stays snow.

[james1976]

DMX update at 7:06. Just saw this but liking it!

706 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow is forecast to persist along and
  north of Highway 34 to the Minnesota border. Some brief periods
  of sleet is possible as well. Total snowfall amounts of 4 to 6
  inches are expected by Tuesday morning with potentially higher
  amounts up to 8 inches near the Waterloo area.

[gosaints]

The NAM was psycho with this storm... Never settled on a solution

[East Dubzz]

The NAM was psycho with this storm... Never settled on a solution

Yeah wasn’t good in that respect, but I do remember it having the mix line being further north than most, at least in the more recent runs. Could have just been luck.

[Hawkeye]

As of 20 minutes ago, I measured 4.1 inches.  I hate to see the mix line surging so far north compared to what the HRRR was showing all day.  There is even a bit of sleet mixing with the snow here.  Visibility has risen because of this over the last 20 minutes.  I'd really like to see the west/nw part of the mix line begin to pull east.

[gabel23]

Did you have school today? We had the day off which was nice.

Started at normal time and let out at 2:30. Honestly could have had a full day, our superintendent is pretty gun shy since the last snow day we had and the sun came out! I was fine with having school today as my wife drove the 20 miles to school and said roads weren’t that bad. I figure we should get one major storm before winter is over and save our last snow day for that!

[East Dubzz]

As of 20 minutes ago, I measured 4.1 inches. I hate to see the mix line surging so far north compared to what the HRRR was showing all day. There is even a bit of sleet mixing with the snow here. Visibility has risen because of this over the last 20 minutes.

Was just going to say I saw a 4.1” report in the CR area haha.

[WBadgersW]

Milwaukee upgraded to WSW

[CentralNebWeather]

Started at normal time and let out at 2:30. Honestly could have had a full day, our superintendent is pretty gun shy since the last snow day we had and the sun came out! I was fine with having school today as my wife drove the 20 miles to school and said roads weren’t that bad. I figure we should get one major storm before winter is over and save our last snow day for that!

We had only had used 2 late starts before today. Storms in November and December happened on the weekends and the blizzard during Christmas break. We probably have 3 more days before any makeup days. Our superintendent actually said he should have called a day off on a Friday in January for another freezing drizzle storm. This winter has turned into the ice winter unfortunately. Storms just seem to race through and don’t have time to develop until they are east of here.

[gosaints]

Yeah wasn’t good in that respect, but I do remember it having the mix line being further north than most, at least in the more recent runs. Could have just been luck.

Oh its solution could end up better than many but how it got there was interesting.

[Madtown]

mkx expanded WSW se

[Hawkeye]

There's a 5" report from near Marion.

[East Dubzz]

About 2.5” here so far. HRRR is - and has been for a while - showing the heaviest snow entering Dubuque around 10 or so. If that holds true, should definitely break 6” here, with ease. We’ll see though. I’ve learned never to take this stuff for granted.

[gosaints]

Wow. Good stuff falling

[Stormy]

[East Dubzz]

HRRR has that sleet line uncomfortably close. Right about to that Galena, IL line, which the DVN hinted at. Dubuque should be good, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a brief change. Even if it did, it doesn’t appear to last long. Hopefully can avoid it all together.

[hlcater]

Lowered my call for IC from 6" down to 5" and now I'm lowering it again to 4". This mixed precip is locked in.

[VMB443]

Milwaukee upgraded to WSW

I was really wondering why they hadn’t already - glad to see that.

[snowstorm83]

Got about 1.25" today. Enough to cover the grass at least. Hopefully one of these systems in the near future works out, but it seems like the trend lately has been storms drying out the closer it gets. 

[james1976]

2.1" down. Averaging 1/2" per hour rates

[East Dubzz]

Two reports of 5” in Marion.. wow!

[East Dubzz]

Lowered my call for IC from 6" down to 5" and now I'm lowering it again to 4". This mixed precip is locked in.

What are you at so far? I don’t think you’ll have a mix for too much longer.

[hlcater]

What are you at so far? I don’t think you’ll have a mix for too much longer.

I was at 3.1" but the icing on top of the snow has forced compaction down to 2.8" with no positive growth over the past 2 hours.

[BMT]

Measured 5.3 so far. No changeover yet and coming down good. Wind has picked up as well.

[Minny_Weather]

I was at 3.1" but the icing on top of the snow has forced compaction down to 2.8" with no positive growth over the past 2 hours.

Is that 2.8" the only depth you have or do you still have crust left over?

[Hawkeye]

Radar shows the mix line creeping north a little more and I think it will reach me(and stall perhaps just before Palo).  I just stuck my arm out the door and there was no sleet, but the mixing must be causing issues because radar shows heavy precip but the snow continues to get lighter and visibility is way up.  I think the mixing might take an inch from our total.