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March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

SpringWinter Cold Phase Blob GLAAM Dew Snow 70 degrees 8-9
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#6101
Jesse

Posted 25 March 2019 - 09:16 PM

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ICON looks cool and wet to start April


Nice to hear that option is in the card deck at least. Most the models seem to either be in the cool and dry or milder and wet camp lately.

#6102
ShawniganLake

Posted 25 March 2019 - 09:49 PM

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Anyone see Nurkic break his leg in the Blazers game tonight. 🤢 And the ref tripped over his leg after too.

#6103
snow_wizard

Posted 25 March 2019 - 09:52 PM

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00z GFS seems to continue the trend of pushing back the big rains next week. Northern energy is more dominant once again on this run.

 

In actuality the GFS looks pretty favorable for a number of frosty nights coming up.  Reasonably low thicknesses with either northerly or weak easterly pressure gradients.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#6104
snow_wizard

Posted 25 March 2019 - 09:53 PM

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Anyone see Nurkic break his leg in the Blazers game tonight. And the ref tripped over his leg after too.

 

That sounds insanely painful.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#6105
MossMan

Posted 25 March 2019 - 10:14 PM

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Currently 44 and had .12” of rain this evening.

#6106
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 26 March 2019 - 02:41 AM

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Down to freezing.


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#6107
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 26 March 2019 - 02:44 AM

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Anyone see Nurkic break his leg in the Blazers game tonight. And the ref tripped over his leg after too.

 

Really unfortunate... I really hate to see injuries in sports. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#6108
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 05:53 AM

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Looks like .50 of rain here since yesterday... 43 with some breaks in the clouds now as sunrise approaches.    Should be a really nice day.



#6109
Phil

Posted 26 March 2019 - 06:30 AM

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Probably right... 3 days seems pretty short for a jet extension.


Thinking 5-7 days, then it retracts again (and perhaps more equatorward wave activity fluxes/less +NAO if the FW is potent enough).
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#6110
ShawniganLake

Posted 26 March 2019 - 07:26 AM

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Ended up with 0.10” of rain here through this morning. I see the BC lower mainland has been very wet this morning

#6111
TacomaWaWx

Posted 26 March 2019 - 07:36 AM

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We need some more days like yesterday in the next couple months. It was almost weird seeing it rain yesterday as it’s been a dry month here.

#6112
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 26 March 2019 - 07:52 AM

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Nary a cloud in the sky this morning. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#6113
jcmcgaffey

Posted 26 March 2019 - 08:02 AM

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We need some more days like yesterday in the next couple months. It was almost weird seeing it rain yesterday as it’s been a dry month here.


It’s been the complete flip of February. Has really felt like summer prematurely. These really long patterns feel really odd. I keep forgetting we should be experiencing a lot more cold and rain this time of year. My guess is we will flip back in April.

#6114
Omegaraptor

Posted 26 March 2019 - 09:17 AM

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It’s been the complete flip of February. Has really felt like summer prematurely. These really long patterns feel really odd. I keep forgetting we should be experiencing a lot more cold and rain this time of year. My guess is we will flip back in April.


Ah, classic Western PNWers considering 50s cold. Really goes to show how mild our climate is.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#6115
Jesse

Posted 26 March 2019 - 09:27 AM

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Ah, classic Western PNWers considering 50s cold. Really goes to show how mild our climate is.


Anything sub-50 is inanely arctic.

#6116
ShawniganLake

Posted 26 March 2019 - 09:37 AM

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Ah, classic Western PNWers considering 50s cold. Really goes to show how mild our climate is.

Depends on the season. Sometimes 50s are cold. Sometimes they aren’t
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#6117
Omegaraptor

Posted 26 March 2019 - 09:43 AM

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Anything sub-50 is inanely arctic.


It’s cold... for APRIL. The average high for this time of year is 58°F... for the month of April overall it is 61.5°F.

It’s not exactly cold to actually experience, especially in winter. 40s are chilly though, and when it goes on for 40 straight days and breaks records it starts to get REAL old.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#6118
TacomaWaWx

Posted 26 March 2019 - 09:43 AM

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It’s been the complete flip of February. Has really felt like summer prematurely. These really long patterns feel really odd. I keep forgetting we should be experiencing a lot more cold and rain this time of year. My guess is we will flip back in April.

This winter has been a one of big pattern changes. Went through relatively tame weather in the fall to a stormy December to a dry warm January. From there we went to a snowy February and early March. Then a dry and at times warm march. Each pattern has lasted a 4-6 weeks it seems. Wonder how the next pattern is going to evolve.

#6119
TacomaWaWx

Posted 26 March 2019 - 09:47 AM

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Depends on the season. Sometimes 50s are cold. Sometimes they aren’t

This is true sometimes 50 can feel like a summer day almost sometimes it’s cold. It is a hard thing to explain but I think everyone who’s lived around here can relate to this on some level.
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#6120
Phil

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:00 AM

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Fuuck wunderground, and fuuck IBM. The new PWS dashboard is steaming mountain of dogshit. The IBM purchase was the worst thing that ever happened to that site..leave it to a giant corporate to buy out and completely screw up one of the most amazing and innovative weather community websites ever created.

#6121
Omegaraptor

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:33 AM

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Looks like Portland has another chance at warm weather on Saturday.

With rain coming up I am truly satisfied with the forecast.

Sorry to Gaffey I was a little too absolute with my 50s statement earlier. Like some of you said, it does depend on the season.

I just need to understand the climactic preferences of others a little better. :)

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#6122
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:36 AM

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Perfect late March day... half inch of rain overnight and now sunny. Everything is really coming to life.

Tomorrow looks gorgeous up here again per the 12Z ECMWF... and warmer.

#6123
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:39 AM

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Perfect late March day... half inch of rain overnight and now sunny. Everything is really coming to life.

Tomorrow looks gorgeous up here again per the 12Z ECMWF... and warmer.

 

If I had a nickel every time you said the EURO was warmer I'd be a millionaire, it would be 353 degrees right now, or at least a March 2016 redux...


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#6124
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:41 AM

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If I had a nickel every time you said the EURO was warmer I'd be a millionaire, it would be 353 degrees right now, or at least a March 2016 redux...


It shows it being a good 5-7 degrees warmer than today up here. Probably similar to previous runs.

#6125
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:49 AM

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ECMWF keeps delaying the start of the jet extension... 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png


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#6126
Jesse

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:51 AM

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It’s cold... for APRIL. The average high for this time of year is 58°F... for the month of April overall it is 61.5°F.

It’s not exactly cold to actually experience, especially in winter. 40s are chilly though, and when it goes on for 40 straight days and breaks records it starts to get REAL old.


All I think he meant was that it would feel cold compared to the 60s and 70s over the last 7-10 days. Although I didn’t even see him specifically mention 50s, to be fair. Seems like you just had a rant cued up and that was the post that triggered it. :lol:
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#6127
Omegaraptor

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:51 AM

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What weather events is the PNW most due for right now?

Besides a summer that isn’t hot and dry.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#6128
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:52 AM

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Snow damage evident on our evergreen bushes (lower left)... they are still trying to stand back up.  

 

20190326-114825.jpg

The cottonwoods appear to be getting big buds now... probably start leafing out within a week.

20190326-114911.jpg



#6129
Omegaraptor

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:53 AM

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All I think he meant was that it would feel cold compared to the 60s and 70s over the last 7-10 days. Although I didn’t even see him specifically mention 50s, to be fair. Seems like you just had a rant cued up and that was the post that triggered it. :lol:


Yeah... I apologize for being a little harsh with my post and not understanding the OP’s point.

Again, I’m trying to cut down on my ranty mood that I’ve had this entire February and early March.

Apologize to all of you guys, rants are no fun to read. I’ll revert back to how I was from November to January.
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2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#6130
Jesse

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:53 AM

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ECMWF keeps delaying the start of the jet extension...

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png


GFS as well. Seems common for models to be initially too bullish about, then delay big pattern changes like this, before eventually locking on. Either that or we’ll get really lucky and it won’t happen at all!

#6131
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:55 AM

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GFS as well. Seems common for models to be initially too bullish about, then delay big pattern changes like this, before eventually locking on. Either that or we’ll get really lucky and it won’t happen at all!

 

 

Its getting closer at day 10... has to verify even if its a little late.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png



#6132
Jesse

Posted 26 March 2019 - 10:57 AM

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Its getting closer at day 10... has to verify even if its a little late.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png


You can almost smell the ridge building back in on the day 15 ensemble looking at that map.

#6133
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:04 AM

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You can almost smell the ridge building back in on the day 15 ensemble looking at that map.

 

 

The 500mb map at day 10 looks like it might be really wet... but the surface map shows the main action going into CA at that time.

 

ecmwf-precip-06-nw-41.png


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#6134
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:05 AM

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ECMWF keeps delaying the start of the jet extension... 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

 

This is a fairly warm day as well on the surface map...

 

ecmwf-t2max-nw-39.png



#6135
Omegaraptor

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:08 AM

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This is a fairly warm day as well on the surface map...

 

ecmwf-t2max-nw-39.png

 

Interesting stuff. Since the Columbia Basin is also warm, I wonder if there'll be Gorge outflow on that day, as Portland looks to be a warmer spot. 


2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#6136
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:10 AM

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Don't worry. The jet extension will get here in October/November.


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#6137
Omegaraptor

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:11 AM

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Accuweather 90 day, the best weather source, is showing a warm April.  :P


2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#6138
Phil

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:16 AM

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This might be relevant to yesterday’s tree root debate.

Anomalously DRY in the Pacific NorthWET.

C8k4P9S.png

#6139
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:18 AM

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This might be relevant to yesterday’s tree root debate.

Anomalously DRY in the Pacific NorthWET.

C8k4P9S.png

 

 

Primarily because of the record cold weather in the PNW for a 6-week period.

 

Everyone cheers for a continental climate here... this is a side effect.   :unsure:



#6140
Phil

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:20 AM

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But it is nice to see the SW US drought get torpedoed.

If this were a real megadrought regime like the MWP or the even bigger droughts during the middle-Holocene, you’d have the worst dryness focused south towards CA/AZ/TX/NM and it would extend into the PNW/Plains during the summer months. This is essentially the opposite.

#6141
Phil

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:25 AM

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Primarily because of the record cold weather in the PNW for a 6-week period.

Everyone cheers for a continental climate here... this is a side effect. :unsure:


Not arguing otherwise.

Actually interesting in that both 2017 and 2018 had the mirror opposite look nationally compared to this year. Lots of precipitation across the nation lately, in part thanks to the developing El Niño.

#6142
Omegaraptor

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:29 AM

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Attached File  IMG_3089.jpg   243.51KB   8 downloads

 

Here's some Oregon Coast Range for you wet weather lovers. This area gets 80-90" of rain a year.


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2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#6143
Jesse

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:37 AM

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Primarily because of the record cold weather in the PNW for a 6-week period.

Everyone cheers for a continental climate here... this is a side effect.


All the record cold last year must be the reason behind the drought then in that case. Not to mention the regionally frigid 2015.
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#6144
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 11:39 AM

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All the record cold last year must be the reason behind the drought then in that case. Not to mention the regionally frigid 2015.

 

I did not say anything about past years.   

 

Of course... most of western WA went into this recent cold spell with perfectly normal conditions and came out with drought threatening.   



#6145
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 12:05 PM

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University of Washington campus in Seattle is looking spring-like now...

 

uw-3-26.png


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#6146
Jesse

Posted 26 March 2019 - 12:29 PM

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IMG_3089.jpg

Here's some Oregon Coast Range for you wet weather lovers. This area gets 80-90" of rain a year.


That is really quite lovely.

#6147
Jesse

Posted 26 March 2019 - 12:34 PM

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This might be relevant to yesterday’s tree root debate.

Anomalously DRY in the Pacific NorthWET.

C8k4P9S.png


Weird to see the mountains so dry but the basins so wet in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, etc. Maybe a resolution issue? Last I heard Rockies snowpack was good.

#6148
MtScottJosh

Posted 26 March 2019 - 12:38 PM

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Hopefully this perfect spring pattern holds on for the next few months. We will definitely see some good tstorms in this pattern once the sun angle is peaked.
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#6149
Cloud

Posted 26 March 2019 - 12:39 PM

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Look like SEA got 0.20" total from this last system. 0.16" yesterday and 0.04" this morning. Not a bad spring day. 

Still continuing to fall behind up-to-date rainfall totals since Jan 1. though, approaching a -3" deficit and -2.5" since Oct. 1.



#6150
TT-SEA

Posted 26 March 2019 - 12:40 PM

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12Z EPS shows the jet extension well at day 11... and in agreement with the operational run before that time.

 

eps-z500a-noram-45.png

 

 

And then it retracts by day 13...

 

eps-z500a-noram-53.png


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Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: SpringWinter, Cold Phase, Blob, GLAAM, Dew, Snow, 70 degrees, 8-9